Day 78: Two Hormuz papers; Washington on neither

Iran ran the strait of Hormuz as a bilateral state-to-state passage system in mid-May, codified publicly by Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and documented operationally by OilPrice.com with Windward vessel-tracking corroboration. Araghchi told Mehr News on his return from the BRICS foreign ministers meeting in New Delhi: 'the strait of Hormuz is open to friendly nations, and restrictions apply only to adversaries.' OilPrice reported the operational implementation: Iraq negotiated transit for a Very Large Crude Carrier of approximately 2 million barrels and was in talks for additional tankers, while Pakistan secured passage for two Qatari LNG vessels through a bilateral Pakistan-Iran agreement. Neither Iraq nor Pakistan paid the Persian Gulf Strait Authority yuan tolls directly; Tehran accepted political engagement in lieu of yuan. The physical Iranian crude premium collapsed from over $30 per barrel above Brent in early April to near-parity by mid-May.

Tehran has codified a parallel passage doctrine alongside the Persian Gulf Strait Authority toll system, converting Hormuz access from a yuan-priced fee into a declared political alignment with Iran. Read full version ↓

Brent Crude reached $109.30 on Saturday 16 May, up $3.30 from the post-summit close of $106.00 on 14 May and above the $107.77 ceiling registered on 12 May. The benchmark reversed the dip that followed the Trump-Xi summit's verbal output, pricing back in the absence of any signed US Iran instrument. In parallel, the physical premium on Iranian-routed crude collapsed to near-parity with Brent by mid-May, from over $30 per barrel above Brent in early April. The benchmark prices geopolitical risk while the physical market reflects dark-fleet supply absorption of the blockade.

Two oil markets are telling opposite stories: the benchmark is repricing the absence of any signed US Iran instrument while the physical market shows the embargo has structurally failed at the cargo level. Read full version ↓

Admiral Brad Cooper, CENTCOM Commander, told a Washington defence forum on 14 May that US operations had cleared 'roughly 90 per cent' of Iran's naval mine inventory and that Iran's military threat is 'diminished but not eliminated', as reported by Defense News. The figure arrived with no published methodology and no independent corroboration. Cooper's previous '100 per cent halt' claim had been contradicted by Windward, The National, and LSEG. The Larak-Qeshm corridor between Iranian islands is the central Strait shipping lane Iran declared a mine zone.

Cooper's previous '100 per cent halt' claim was contradicted by three independent maritime-surveillance platforms; a second challenged figure would erode the operational credibility underwriting Pete Hegseth's Article 2 doctrine. Read full version ↓

Hengaw, the Norway-based Kurdish human rights organisation, reported that Reza Soleimani was executed at Qom Central Prison on 15 May and an unnamed prisoner was executed at Karaj Central Prison on the same day. Karaj Central is the same facility where aerospace researcher Erfan Shakourzadeh was secretly executed on 11 May. The Friday executions extended the cluster Hengaw documented across 12-13 May and formed part of a five-prison execution footprint spanning Qezel Hesar Karaj, Mashhad, Karaj Central, Qom Central, and Gorgan.

Hengaw remains the only independent source documenting war-era judicial executions inside Iran; the 15 May killings raise the verified Hengaw count to nine since 11 May across a five-prison footprint. Read full version ↓

On 16 May Hengaw recorded four Kurdish arrests across northwestern provinces: Kurdish singer Seyed Ali Qoreishi remained incommunicado in Bukan; Shahram Pasupish was arrested in Piranshahr with unknown whereabouts; Hadi Abbasian was transferred to prison in Shirvan; Mohammadreza Faryadi was held incommunicado in Ilam Province. English teacher Forouzan Eslami was arrested in Urmia on 15 May. The arrests are concentrated in Kurdish-majority provinces Hengaw monitors most closely.

The arrests run on the wartime security pipeline's own timetable rather than the kinetic war's; with the internet blackout nearing 2,000 hours, Hengaw's named-individual reports are the only granular record reaching the outside world. Read full version ↓

Israel's Elbit Systems received a $34 million contract to extend the operational range of F-35I Adir fighter aircraft, citing the active conflict with Iran, as reported by Defense News on 14 May. The contract represents a medium-term Israeli force posture adjustment for longer-range strike options.

The procurement signals Israeli preparation for longer-range strike options against Iran's eastern nuclear facilities, even as Israel remains outside the direct US-Iran belligerent track. Read full version ↓

Iran International reported that the Iranian Majlis was reviewing a bill proposing a €50 million reward for killing US President Donald Trump, framed as retaliation for the deaths of Iranian leaders. The bill was not corroborated by IRNA, Tasnim, or Mehr News as of 16 May. The briefing treats it as opposition-source narrative intelligence on hardliner domestic pressure rather than confirmed legislative action.

If confirmed, this would be the first time Iran's parliament formally proposed a bounty on a sitting US president, and would functionally destroy Foreign Minister Araghchi's civilian diplomatic track overnight. Read full version ↓