Day 35: Bridge strike kills eight; Army chief fired

The IDF struck Kermanshah on 3 April, killing Makram Atimi, commander of Iran's central ballistic missile unit, along with several battalion commanders. The strike targeted the IRGC layer responsible for Iran's longest-range missile operations.

Atimi's death degrades coordination but does not destroy the missiles he commanded. The UAE had intercepted 457 ballistic missiles as of 3 April, confirming the barrages continued despite earlier command-layer strikes. Kermanshah sits 525 kilometres from Tel Aviv. Read full version ↓

Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth fired Army Chief of Staff Gen. Randy George and 2 other generals on 2 April. George had resisted blocking promotions for Black and female officers. Acting chief is Gen. Christopher LaNeve, Hegseth's former personal military aide.

The 82nd Airborne is fully deployed and active ground operation planning is under way. Every serving commander has now seen the Army chief removed mid-campaign for reasons unconnected to battlefield performance. Read full version ↓

At least 18 A-10 Warthog ground-attack aircraft are deployed, with 12 arriving at RAF Lakenheath by 3 April. The 82nd Airborne's 1st Brigade Combat Team is fully in theatre under Maj. Gen. Tegtmeier, alongside 2 EA-37B electronic warfare aircraft.

The A-10 is a close air support platform built to loiter over a battlefield, not a standoff weapon. Eighteen A-10s with an airborne division is the hardware mix for a ground assault, not an air-only campaign. Read full version ↓

On 2 April, Philippines Foreign Minister Lazaro and Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi spoke directly, securing toll-free Hormuz passage for Philippine-flagged vessels. Manila became the first US treaty ally to cut a bilateral deal with Tehran since the IRGC toll system began operating.

The Philippines imports roughly 90% of its oil and held just 45 days of fuel reserves. Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan face identical pressure; any 1 of them following Manila dissolves the collective posture Washington has relied on. Read full version ↓

On 2 April, 3 Omani vessels bypassed Iran's IRGC checkpoint at Larak Island, taking the traditional international Hormuz channel. They then disabled their AIS transponders. On the same day, the Philippines announced a formal bilateral deal with Tehran .

Oman exports around 800,000 barrels per day through Hormuz and serves as Iran's long-standing diplomatic backchannel. The AIS blackout after a corridor bypass points to a quiet bilateral exemption, not a unilateral evasion. Read full version ↓

Abu Dhabi's Habshan gas facility caught fire on 3 April from debris of an intercepted projectile. Cumulative UAE intercepts stand at 457 ballistic missiles, 2,038 UAVs, and 19 cruise missiles. 19 ballistic missiles and 26 UAVs were intercepted in 2 days.

Habshan's fire came from a missile the UAE destroyed. Intercept debris falls without a controllable trajectory. A farm worker died from air defence shrapnel in Fujairah on 1 April . CENTCOM's "dramatically curtailed" claim ignores damage from intercepted missiles. Read full version ↓

Kuwait's Mina al-Ahmadi oil refinery was struck by drone for the 3rd time on 3 April, causing fires without employee casualties. Drones also struck a desalination plant before midday. Iran had struck a Kuwaiti desalination plant on 30 March, killing 1 worker; 3 April marks the 2nd such attack in 5 days.

All 6 GCC nations have now been struck. Desalination supplies Kuwait's primary potable water for 4.7 million residents. Iran's targeting has shifted toward civilian life-support systems. Read full version ↓

Hengaw Human Rights Organisation published its 9th casualty report on 2 April, at least 5 days overdue. It counted 7,300 killed in 34 days, including 890 civilians, 180 minors, and 210 women. Iran's official count stands at 1,937: a 3.7-fold gap.

New in the 9th report: documented evidence of IRGC forces using schools, dormitories, and mosques as military positions. That creates a dual accountability question under the laws of armed conflict. Hengaw's 5-day delay signals access restrictions inside Iran. Read full version ↓

The Intercept reported on 3 April that 520 or more US service members have been wounded in Operation Epic Fury, against CENTCOM's official figure of 303 sent to Congress: a 72% gap. The submission excluded the Prince Sultan Air Base attack of 27 March.

Prince Sultan wounded 12 US troops and destroyed an E-3 Sentry and a KC-135. Congress members voting on a $200 billion war supplemental are working from data the Pentagon's sources say is incomplete. US KIA: 15. Read full version ↓

Iran's Majlis voted 221-0 on 3 April to suspend all IAEA cooperation. President Pezeshkian signed the bill the same day. There are now no IAEA inspections, cameras, or reports. 440 kg of 60%-enriched uranium was already beyond inspector access.

Trump declared the nuclear goal attained on 1 April . Iran's 221-0 vote made the programme legally unobservable within 2 days. An NPT withdrawal bill sits in the Majlis. IAEA blackout with intact enrichment infrastructure is operationally equivalent to NPT withdrawal. Read full version ↓

Amnesty International confirmed Iran executed Amirhossein Hatami, 18, on 3 April for charges related to January protests. Amnesty described his trial as grossly unfair.

A government under sustained US bombardment is simultaneously executing its youngest dissenters. That simultaneity reveals a government whose domestic repression accelerates under external pressure rather than easing. Read full version ↓

2 EA-37B Compass Call aircraft, callsigns AXIS41 and AXIS43, departed RAF Mildenhall on 2 April. CENTCOM confirmed the deployment fills the battle management gap after Iran destroyed a US E-3 Sentry AWACS at Prince Sultan on 27 March. The EA-37B has not reached IOC.

Deploying a pre-IOC aircraft into combat shows the gap runs deep. Equipment not through testing carries higher failure rates and incomplete datalink integration. Prince Sultan produced the casualties CENTCOM excluded from its congressional submission. Read full version ↓

5 legal deadlines converge in 10 days: General License U expires 19 April, covering 128 million barrels of Iranian crude in transit; the War Powers Resolution 60-day clock hits near 29 April; Congress returns mid-April. Brent rose 6.6% to $107.80, the largest monthly gain since Brent's 1988 inception.

GL-U lapse is automatic unless OFAC acts. 128 million barrels at sea would immediately lack a legal buyer. These 5 simultaneous pressure points have no wartime sanctions precedent. Read full version ↓