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Iran Conflict 2026
27MAR

Sharif, Munir and Xi meet in Beijing

3 min read
14:13UTC

Pakistan's prime minister and army chief were in Beijing together on Monday, meeting Xi Jinping as the Iran deal nears its sequencing decision. The two principal mediators are coordinating with China face to face for the first time.

ConflictDeveloping
Key takeaway

The mediation has consolidated in the one capital that can underwrite a frozen-asset release.

Pakistani prime minister Shehbaz Sharif met Xi Jinping in Beijing on Monday 25 May, day three of a four-day state visit, with army chief Asim Munir also in the Chinese capital 1. Munir had flown to Beijing straight from Tehran, which he visited on 23 May , while Sharif and his foreign minister arrived in China on the same Saturday .

Pakistan has run as the principal back-channel between Washington and Tehran through the war. For the first time both of its principals are in Beijing at once, coordinating with China in person rather than through relayed messages, and on the days the deal sits at its closest. Munir's shuttle from Tehran on 23 May to Beijing by 25 May collapses two mediation tracks into a single room.

The venue matters more than the photographs. China holds the tools the sequencing deadlock needs a third party to provide: frozen-fund mechanics, yuan settlement, and the standing to vouch for who pays whom and when. Beijing also already hosts Iran's designated China envoy, speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, appointed in late April with sign-off from both President Masoud Pezeshkian and Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei , so the Iranian contact is already in the city.

A joint Pakistan-China statement is expected by 27 May, its content still undisclosed. Whether it names a mechanism for escrowing the frozen assets against a reopening of the strait, or leaves that clause untouched, will matter more than anything in the visit's choreography.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

Pakistan has been acting as the go-between in talks to end the war between the United States and Iran. On 25 May, both Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and its army chief Asim Munir were in Beijing at the same time, meeting Chinese President Xi Jinping. Munir had flown there directly from Tehran, which he visited on 23 May. Iran's own special envoy to China was also in Beijing. This is the first time all the main mediators have gathered in the same city at once. China matters here because it is Iran's biggest oil customer, and it may be the only country that could help resolve the argument over the $12 billion in frozen money that Iran wants released before reopening the strait.

Deep Analysis
Root Causes

Pakistan's role as the principal back-channel emerged from three structural conditions: a 959-kilometre shared border with Iran, a general-officer-led military intelligence relationship with both Washington and Tehran, and the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) financial dependency that gives Pakistan unique access to Chinese credit facilities.

Asim Munir's ability to fly Tehran-to-Beijing without a 24-hour public announcement reflects the operational security of the military-to-military channel, which has carried every nuclear-monitoring concession of the war.

The simultaneous presence of both Sharif (civilian, economic track) and Munir (military, security track) in Beijing signals that the Pakistan side has concluded the $12bn sequencing problem requires both tracks resolved in parallel, not sequentially.

What could happen next?
  • Consequence

    The joint Pakistan-China statement expected by 27 May will indicate whether China is prepared to act as guarantor for the $12bn sequencing mechanism, or merely as a diplomatic host.

  • Opportunity

    If China agrees to route the $12bn release through its state banking system rather than a US Treasury channel, it bypasses the US re-freeze risk Iran has demanded protection against, potentially unlocking the sequencing deadlock.

First Reported In

Update #107 · Two markets, two prices on one Iran deal

Pakistan Today· 25 May 2026
Read original
Different Perspectives
Markets
Markets
Brent crude rose 2.2 per cent to $96.34 on 10 June, reversing a 7 per cent weekly decline built on deal optimism, as the overnight exchange repriced the Strait of Hormuz risk premium in a single session. The move reflects transit-risk repricing rather than supply shock: Iran's exports had already collapsed to below 300,000 barrels per day.
Pakistan
Pakistan
Pakistan's Naqvi channel, the only mediation track carrying both civilian and military buy-in, was stress-tested by live ordnance within 48 hours of the 6-7 June Tehran visit. Whether Washington informed Islamabad of the imminent strike plan while Naqvi was in Tehran remains undisclosed, putting the channel's neutrality under scrutiny.
Kuwait
Kuwait
Kuwait hosted the third Iranian strike on its soil since the 3 June airport drone attack, with Ali Al Salem airbase targeted in the three-country salvo. Its recent $1.98 billion Anduril Anvil counter-drone purchase signals it is rearming rather than reconsidering its hosting posture.
Bahrain
Bahrain
Bahrain absorbed the IRGC barrage via PAC-3 intercepts with its magazine already at 87 per cent depletion and no resupply before 2027. Sounding air-raid sirens over Manama, it faced the intercept burden with the thinnest defensive stack in the Gulf coalition.
Jordan
Jordan
Jordan reported all five incoming missiles intercepted with no injuries and no damage, a clean defensive performance that strengthens Amman's case for staying in the Western coalition without escalating its own posture. It now sits on Iran's target list for the first time despite not being a party to the Abraham Accords confrontation.
Iran / IRGC
Iran / IRGC
Foreign Minister Araghchi posted on X that US forces should 'leave our region if you want to be safe' and framed the exchange as a US defeat, while the IRGC claimed 21 targets hit and an F-35 hangar destroyed. The claims serve a domestic and Arab-audience framing rather than a verified battle-damage assessment.