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Iran Conflict 2026
23JUL

GL 134A lapses toward quiet extension

3 min read
19:27UTC

Treasury's Russian crude waiver expired on 11 April with wire reporting from Reuters, Semafor and Bloomberg pointing to renewal worth roughly $150 million a day to Moscow at current Urals prices.

← Back to Houthis hit Saudi tankers; Brent tops $100Jump to analysis ↓
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Key takeaway

The Russian oil waiver is the same instrument doing the opposite job it was designed for.

General License 134A (GL 134A), the OFAC (Office of Foreign Assets Control) waiver that authorised transactions for Russian crude loaded before 12 March, expired on 11 April. Reuters, Semafor and Bloomberg report, citing people familiar with the discussions, that an extension is coming 1. A Treasury spokesperson offered only that the department "does not preview actions related to our sanctions."

Daniel Fried at the Atlantic Council called on Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on 8 April to let the waiver lapse and fall back on the price cap. Asian governments led by India and the Philippines are pushing in the other direction. A week ago this was framed as a binary choice at $121 Urals . Bloomberg estimates the waiver is worth roughly $150 million a day in additional Russian budget revenue at $114 to $116 Urals.

One week of that uplift covers a fortnight of Kinzhal strikes. A full year covers a sum the EU has spent months trying to route to Kyiv against Hungarian opposition. The original GL 134 was defensible in March at $73 a barrel as market stabilisation after the Strait of Hormuz closed. At 64% above that price, and with the Iran ceasefire of 8 April partially reopening Hormuz, the same instrument now hands Moscow a surplus the sanctions architecture was designed to prevent. The Russia-Iran corridor that Israel struck at Bandar Anzali last month still runs.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

When the Iran conflict disrupted oil markets in March, the US Treasury issued a temporary waiver allowing banks and traders to continue processing payments for Russian crude already at sea. The idea was to prevent a sudden oil price spike. The waiver was set to expire on 11 April. The problem: when the waiver was issued, Russian oil was selling at $73 per barrel. By expiry it was trading at $114-116. That means every extra day of extension hands Russia roughly $150 million in war-funding revenue that sanctions were supposed to block.

Deep Analysis
Root Causes

GL 134A was issued on 12 March 2026 as a market-stabilisation measure when the Iran war disrupted Gulf crude flows. The structural problem is that the licence's dollar value is oil-price-sensitive: a barrel-price doubling since issuance means the waiver now hands Moscow a windfall the original policy never contemplated.

The secondary cause is bureaucratic path dependency. Once a sanctions waiver is issued to enable active market transactions, financial institutions and energy traders build positions around it. Lapse without a wind-down window triggers counterparty defaults that US regulators are reluctant to own.

What could happen next?
  • Consequence

    Each week of extension at current Urals prices transfers approximately $1.05 billion to Russia, partially offsetting the impact of the EU's phased gas import ban beginning 25 April.

  • Risk

    If the waiver is extended without a firm sunset date, it establishes precedent that sanctions can be indefinitely deferred when market conditions create lobby pressure, weakening the credibility of the entire OFAC architecture.

Sources:Reuters (via Kyiv Independent)·Reuters (via Kyiv Independent)
Mentions:CNN →Semafor →Bloomberg →Iran →Philippines →Moscow →Kyiv →The Atlantic →US Treasury →OFAC →Atlantic Council →Daniel Fried →Urals →Prima →Washington →Russia →Bandar Anzali →Israel →Strait of Hormuz →Venezuela →India →General License U →Scott Bessent →
First Reported In

Update #12 · Three narrowings of US support for Kyiv

Reuters (via Kyiv Independent)· 11 Apr 2026
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Causes and effects
Caused by
US Oil Sanctions Waiver Expires 11 April Amid Confusion
GL 134A event is the direct resolution of ID:2027's binary-choice framing: extension at $121/bbl or lapse on the 11 April expiry date.
Occurred 2 Apr 2026
Read story →
This Event
GL 134A lapses toward quiet extension
An expiring waiver at $73 was market stabilisation; the same instrument at $115 is a budget transfer.
Led to
Treasury kills $150M-a-day Russian oil waiver
GL 134A expired on 11 April with wire consensus pointing to extension; Bessent's 16 April non-renewal defied that expectation.
Occurred 16 Apr 2026
Read story →
Russia GL-134B extended as Iran GL-U lapses
Russia's GL-134A expired on 11 April (ID:2226) and was extended to GL-134B on 19 April, widening the Russia-yes Iran-no asymmetry documented in this event.
Occurred 19 Apr 2026
Read story →
OFAC quietly extends Russia crude waiver
GL 134A's 11 April expiry created the legal gap that GL 134B bridged, extending the at-sea crude waiver by one month
Occurred 17 Apr 2026
Read story →
Different Perspectives
India
India
India buys more Saudi crude than any other country and has 2.5 million nationals working in the kingdom, so a $100 Brent and a live strike on Saudi tankers reach New Delhi through both fuel bills and remittance risk. Neither channel has an alternative route the way Saudi Arabia's own pipeline does.
Qatar
Qatar
Qatar co-authored the four-mediator ten-day ceasefire proposal alongside Egypt, Pakistan and Oman, centred on resuming Hormuz navigation, while separately pursuing its dated compensation claim against Iran at the UN Security Council filed on 21 July. Doha is mediating and litigating in the same week.
Israel
Israel
Israeli intelligence, reported by the Wall Street Journal, assesses Iran moved thousands of centrifuges and part of its roughly 440kg enriched-uranium stock into Pickaxe Mountain after the June 2025 strikes on its three main nuclear sites. Some of the US refuelling aircraft now deploying to the region are bound for Israeli bases and Ramon Airport.
Houthis
Houthis
Yahya Saree announced the missile and drone strikes on the Encelia and Layla on 22 July as enforcement of the embargo his forces had declared by radio warning alone two days earlier. Six vessels already turned back on the broadcast; the strike shows Houthi forces will use weapons once warnings stop working.
Saudi Arabia
Saudi Arabia
Saudi Arabia's state news agency confirmed only a fire on the Encelia's bow, with the crew safe; the Layla strike remains unconfirmed by Riyadh. The kingdom built its Petroline pipeline specifically to bypass Hormuz through the Red Sea, so the tanker fire lands on the route Riyadh had already spent billions escaping.
United States
United States
Washington is weighing both ten-day proposals but wants a longer truce than either offers, and moved F-16 and F-35 jets plus refuelling aircraft into the region while it decides. That deployment, not Trump's Pickaxe Mountain remarks, is the measurable US action, buying options for the day talks fail rather than betting on them.