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Iran Conflict 2026
15JUN

Seven Ships Cross Hormuz, No Oil Tankers

3 min read
11:40UTC

IRGC / Lloyd's List Intelligence

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ConflictDeveloping
Key takeaway

Seven ships in 24 hours is a checkpoint, not a reopening.

Seven ships transited the Strait of Hormuz on ceasefire Day 3. None were oil tankers. 325 oil tankers and more than 600 vessels remain stranded inside the Persian Gulf. Iran's toll system had reached 20 transits per day before the ceasefire ; seven is a regression, not a recovery. The pre-war baseline of 135 per day illustrates the distance to normalisation.

Iran's inspection and ban regime transforms the strait from an international waterway into a customs border. Ships linked to Israel are excluded; tolls are reportedly payable in cryptocurrency. The IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps) mine charts published on 9 April direct all traffic through corridors near Larak Island under IRGC naval control. Oman formally refused the toll regime, citing international maritime treaty obligations, but Omani vessels still face the same inspection process.

ADNOC CEO Sultan Al Jaber put it plainly: "Passage is subject to permission, conditions and political leverage." Goldman Sachs issued revised scenarios: $82 per barrel base if Hormuz resumes this weekend, $100+ if closed another month, $120 severe. Every day without mine clearance normalises the toll regime that preceded the ceasefire .

Deep Analysis

In plain English

Before the war, about 135 ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz every day, carrying 20% of the world's oil. On Day 3 of the ceasefire that was supposed to reopen it, only seven ships passed and none were oil tankers. 325 tankers are sitting stuck inside the Gulf waiting. Iran is charging fees, banning some ships, and controlling who gets through. The UN tried to force the strait open; Russia and China blocked it.

Deep Analysis
Root Causes

Iran's closure of Hormuz reflects a shift from opportunistic disruption to structural leverage doctrine. The toll system represents a permanent claim to sovereign authority over an internationally recognised strait — the same claim it made unsuccessfully in the 1980s. The ceasefire has preserved the toll regime rather than ending it, which is Iran's primary economic gain from the war regardless of nuclear outcome.

China and Russia's UNSC veto removes multilateral enforcement. Without that mechanism, Hormuz reopening requires either a bilateral US-Iran deal that explicitly addresses the toll regime, or unilateral US naval action. The Trump administration has so far declined both.

What could happen next?
  • Consequence

    Every day without mine clearance normalises Iranian toll authority over an internationally recognised strait, making restoration of UNCLOS freedom of navigation progressively harder to claim without confrontation.

    Short term · Assessed
  • Risk

    GL-U expiry on 19 April would recriminalise 325 stranded tankers' cargo before the ceasefire even ends, forcing operators to choose between legal jeopardy and abandoning cargo.

    Immediate · Assessed
  • Consequence

    China's tankers already transit under the toll regime; its UNSC veto locks in a competitive advantage over Japanese, South Korean, and European shippers for as long as the regime persists.

    Medium term · Assessed
Sources:Iran International·Al Jazeera·Bloomberg
Mentions:Goldman Sachs →Iraq →Dubai →Lloyd's List →Islamabad →Gulf Research Centre →Iran-Iraq War →Operation Earnest Will →Kuwait →Prima →East Asia →Russia →Strait of Hormuz →Israel →International Energy Agency →Persian Gulf →Iran →China →Strait of Hormuz Toll System →Oman →ADNOC →United Nations Security Council (UNSC) →Larak-Qeshm →Sultan Al Jaber →Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) →
First Reported In

Update #64 · Islamabad talks open already cracked

Iran International· 10 Apr 2026
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Causes and effects
Caused by
Iran publishes mine charts converting Hormuz reopening into IRGC corridor
IRGC mine charts published 9 April (ID:2121) forced all ships into IRGC-controlled Larak Island corridors, directly suppressing Day 3 transit count to seven ships with zero oil tankers.
Occurred 9 Apr 2026
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Hormuz toll system carried 20 transits per day before ceasefire
The 20/day transit level reached by 5 April (ID:2119) under the toll regime has been cut further by ceasefire Day 3 conditions — the ceasefire has reduced traffic rather than increased it.
Occurred 5 Apr 2026
Read story →
Brent rebounds as Goldman prices ceasefire risk
Oil markets repriced on ceasefire announcement (ID:2124); Goldman's $82-$120 Brent scenarios on Day 3 represent the market's updated pricing of persistent Hormuz restriction.
Occurred 9 Apr 2026
Read story →
This Event
Seven Ships Cross Hormuz, No Oil Tankers
The ceasefire has reduced Hormuz transits rather than raised them; Iran's de facto customs authority over the strait is consolidating daily.
Different Perspectives
G7 Leaders (ex-US)
G7 Leaders (ex-US)
Kananaskis ended without a joint communique for the first time in the body's history; Macron credited G7 pressure with speeding the ceasefire while Trump publicly denied the summit played any role. The split between US and European G7 partners over what the memorandum means for sanctions relief was the direct cause of the text failure.
Protection-and-Indemnity insurers
Protection-and-Indemnity insurers
London-based P&I mutual clubs declined to underwrite Hormuz crossings while the IRGC Strait Authority remained operational, making the passage commercially impassable regardless of the memorandum's terms. Shipping operators said they would wait weeks for on-water conditions to change before routing tankers through.
IRGC Persian Gulf Strait Authority
IRGC Persian Gulf Strait Authority
P&I mutual insurers declined to underwrite Hormuz crossings on 15-16 June while the IRGC's Strait Authority remained in operation, reducing actual transits to two vessels against a pre-war daily rate of 94. The corps' revenue-generating toll mechanism, created 5 May and collecting $1.5-2 million per VLCC in crypto, has not been stood down and cannot be dissolved by Ghalibaf's signature.
Israeli Cabinet
Israeli Cabinet
Netanyahu admitted he had not seen the memorandum's text but confirmed IDF forces would stay in southern Lebanon; Finance Minister Smotrich called for ten Beirut buildings destroyed per Hezbollah drone and National Security Minister Ben-Gvir said the agreement 'does not bind us in any way'. Israel signed nothing in Islamabad and is the central unresolved variable in the Lebanon clause.
Iranian Majlis hardliners
Iranian Majlis hardliners
Around 60 MPs signed a letter demanding Ghalibaf explain the memorandum; Paydari faction MP Sabeti said the deal violates the Supreme Leader's red lines, and MP Aboutorabi argued the document carries binding obligations 'that cannot be resolved by simply changing the name'. President Pezeshkian defended the negotiators against accusations of betrayal, confirming the fracture inside Iran's political class.
US Vice President JD Vance
US Vice President JD Vance
Vance signed on 15 June and said the memorandum was 'not conditioned on Israel withdrawing from Lebanon' while also saying it 'envisioned a ceasefire that covers both Iran and Lebanon'. The two formulations are incompatible and hand Iran's foreign minister a ready-made violation claim before Geneva.