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Russia-Ukraine War 2026
12OCT

Kuwait refinery struck by Iran again

3 min read
10:59UTC

Iranian drones hit Kuwait's 730,000-barrel-per-day Mina Al-Ahmadi refinery for a second straight day, shutting units during Eid al-Fitr. The IRGC's campaign against Gulf refining capacity is now daily and systematic.

ConflictDeveloping
Key takeaway

Iran is targeting Gulf refining capacity systematically, creating a refined-product shortage that outlasts any ceasefire.

Kuwait's Mina Al-Ahmadi refinery — 730,000 barrels per day of capacity — was struck by Iranian drones for the second consecutive day, causing fires and unit shutdowns during Eid al-Fitr⁠1. The refinery was first hit on 18 March alongside the nearby Mina Abdullah facility, in what were the first Iranian strikes on Kuwaiti Energy infrastructure since the war began. That attacks continued the following day — during a holiday shared by attacker and target — indicates the IRGC's campaign against Gulf refining capacity is sustained, not a single retaliatory gesture.

Iran's targeting has expanded in concentric rings over three weeks. The IRGC began with Israel and US bases, struck Gulf Energy infrastructure for the first time on 16 March at Qatar's Ras Laffan, then on 17 March issued named-facility warnings to Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE — the first time Iran specified individual targets with timetables. Qatar expelled Iranian military attachés within hours. Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan warned that Gulf patience is "not unlimited" and that trust in the 2023 China-brokered rapprochement has "completely been shattered". Kuwait now faces the reality that diplomatic distance from the conflict provided no protection.

Washington's response has been hardware, not diplomacy. Secretary Rubio bypassed congressional review for $8 billion in air defence radars to Kuwait and $8.5 billion in counter-drone systems to the UAE — emergency sales that acknowledge existing Gulf air defences cannot match the volume of incoming Iranian attacks. Cumulative UAE interceptions alone exceed 2,000 since 28 February. Each refinery fire, each Force majeure declaration, each day of suspended loading removes barrels from a market where spot crude already trades at a record premium. The IRGC's operating logic is to ensure the economic cost of this war is felt not only in Tehran and Washington but in every Gulf capital that hosts American forces.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

Oil refineries are the industrial facilities that convert crude oil into the finished fuels that go into vehicles, aircraft, and heating systems. Mina al-Ahmadi is one of the largest refineries in the world. Iran has struck it two days in a row. Even if crude oil were suddenly available in abundance, damaged refineries cannot process it at speed. This creates a second, independent supply problem: the world can face a shortage of petrol and diesel even if crude supply recovers — because the factories that produce those fuels are offline. Solving the crude problem does not automatically solve the finished-fuel problem.

Deep Analysis
Synthesis

The combination of Hormuz disruption and sustained refinery strikes creates a price floor that will structurally outlast any conflict resolution. Refinery damage has a recovery timeline measured in weeks to months; shipping disruptions resolve faster once a corridor reopens. Iran has effectively embedded a refined-product shortage that crude supply releases alone cannot address — a dimension absent from most ceasefire or relief scenarios currently being modelled.

Root Causes

Iran's targeting doctrine distinguishes between crude supply disruption and refined-product supply disruption, recognising that impairing both simultaneously maximises economic coercion. Kuwait sits outside the NATO collective defence guarantee, meaningfully reducing Iran's escalation risk relative to striking a treaty-ally's Energy infrastructure and inviting a collective response.

Escalation

Consecutive drone strikes on Mina al-Ahmadi indicate a deliberate, sustained campaign against Gulf refining infrastructure rather than opportunistic targeting. Iran is simultaneously maintaining Hormuz disruption for crude and degrading refinery capacity for finished products — a dual-track strategy designed to maximise and extend economic pressure on US regional partners beyond what either approach achieves alone.

What could happen next?
  • Consequence

    Kuwait's refined-product export commitments to Asian buyers are disrupted, forcing those markets onto higher-cost spot sourcing immediately.

    Immediate · Assessed
  • Risk

    Petrol and diesel retail prices may rise faster than crude prices as finished-fuel supply tightens on an independent track from crude availability.

    Short term · Assessed
  • Risk

    Sustained refinery damage across Gulf states creates a structural refined-product shortage that persists well beyond any political conflict resolution.

    Medium term · Assessed
  • Precedent

    Consecutive precision strikes on a single Gulf refinery establish a sustained attrition doctrine for energy infrastructure targeting that future actors will study.

    Long term · Suggested
First Reported In

Update #43 · Trump floats wind-down, deploys 2,200 more

Al Jazeera· 21 Mar 2026
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Causes and effects
This Event
Kuwait refinery struck by Iran again
Consecutive-day strikes on the same facility confirm Iran's targeting of Gulf energy infrastructure is sustained rather than retaliatory. Each day of refinery damage removes capacity from a market where spot crude already trades at a record premium over futures.
Different Perspectives
Government of Latvia
Government of Latvia
Latvia abstained on 22 September when the EU renewed its individual sanctions for 36 months at the price of delisting Alisher Usmanov and Mikhail Fridman, and promised national sanctions of its own. Riga's abstention marks how far a frontline member state will go to keep listed names listed.
India's Ministry of External Affairs
India's Ministry of External Affairs
After the House passed the Graham bill on 16 September, India's foreign ministry said it would keep buying energy on market terms and protect its trade. Russia supplied 30.3% of India's crude imports in fiscal 2026, so the tariff decision due around 18 October falls directly on New Delhi.
Kaja Kallas, EU foreign policy chief
Kaja Kallas, EU foreign policy chief
Kallas answered the US licence on 10 October by saying Europe would not ease pressure, and EU ministers adopted a 22nd package of nearly 1,600 listings two days later. Brussels is tightening as Washington loosens, though TASS reported the package adds no significant new trade restrictions.
Donald Trump and the US Treasury
Donald Trump and the US Treasury
The Treasury licensed Russian diesel imports until 7 April 2027 on the day of Trump's call with Putin, and Trump then told reporters Ukraine should find a new leader. Washington is trading sanctions relief for fuel supply while pressing Kyiv to halt the refinery strikes behind the shortage.
Kremlin and Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak
Kremlin and Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak
After the 9 October call the Kremlin said Russia was ready to supply oil and petroleum products to American and global markets, and Novak brought forward the end of diesel export curbs. Moscow is selling the shortage back as goodwill, with volumes that Decree No. 686 now hides from outside checks.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy, President of Ukraine
Volodymyr Zelenskyy, President of Ukraine
Zelenskyy called GL 135 an investment in prolonging the war and offered to stop striking Russian refineries if Russia stops destroying Ukraine's energy system. Answering Trump's call for a new leader, he set a total 60-day ceasefire as the condition for elections, which puts the next move on Moscow.