Skip to content
Briefings are running a touch slower this week while we rebuild the foundations.See roadmap
Russia-Ukraine War 2026
13MAY

CENTCOM redirections rise to 61, disabled count holds at four

4 min read
20:00UTC

Three vessels added to the cumulative count since 7 May; smokestack-disabling pattern unchanged

ConflictDeveloping
Key takeaway

CENTCOM redirections rose to 61 by 10 May; the disabled-tanker count held at four with two still unnamed.

CENTCOM added three commercial vessels to its cumulative Iranian-port redirection count between 7 May and 10 May, taking the running figure to 61 . The pace has slowed from the early-blockade rhythm of one to two vessels per day to a roughly one-per-day tempo, suggesting that the dark-fleet Community has largely re-routed around the visible enforcement architecture or stopped sending tonnage into the corridor entirely.

The disabled-ship count held at four for the third straight day. The 8 May F/A-18 smokestack-disabling strikes against the tankers M/T Sea Star III and Sevda remain the most recent recorded immobilisations; the other two disabled vessels have not been publicly named by CENTCOM, an attribution gap that has now persisted for a fortnight despite repeated press-grid statements naming the operational pattern.

For Asian refiners the redirection figure translates to roughly two-to-four weeks of delivery delays on cargoes diverted from Bandar Abbas to alternative anchorages. For European buyers it shows up in the bid premium on Atlantic-basin barrels backfilling the lost volume. Brent's Monday Asian open at $104.71 set the prior $101.29 baseline) is consistent with the market pricing that lost volume as a structural rather than transient gap.

The slowing tempo cuts against the U#90 framing that CENTCOM was scaling a sustained kinetic operation; the operational rhythm now looks more like enforcement maintenance than a widening engagement. The two-unnamed-tankers attribution gap is the open question: whether CENTCOM is holding the names for operational security, the targets are non-state-flagged dark-fleet vessels Washington does not wish to identify, or the War Powers Resolution documentation review is delaying public naming.

The operational floor under all of this is 20 US warships that Tribune India's ANI wire reported enforcing the strait, the largest sustained US naval presence in the Persian Gulf since 2003.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

Think of the Strait of Hormuz as a single-lane motorway carrying about a fifth of the world's oil. The US Navy has been telling about two tankers a day to turn around if they were heading to Iranian ports, and the running total is now 61 since mid-April. Four tankers have actually been damaged. Two of those four have never been publicly named, which is unusual: usually the Navy says which ships it hit.

Deep Analysis
Root Causes

The cumulative redirection count is constrained by CENTCOM's standing order, which covers Iranian-port-destined traffic only and excludes the toll-interdiction track Trump posted to Truth Social on 12 April but never converted into a signed executive order.

The structural driver is the **War Powers Resolution** Section 1544(b) clock, which according to the Trump administration's 1 May formal position never started running because the United States is 'not at war' with Iran . Without a signed AUMF, CENTCOM cannot broaden the operational rules to cover non-Iranian-port traffic in commercial vessels carrying Iranian-origin cargo; the standing order's narrow scope produces the slowing tempo.

The unnamed-tanker attribution gap is downstream of the same constraint: publishing the names risks creating a verification record that intersects with the pending Murkowski AUMF's reporting requirements (event 6).

What could happen next?
  • Meaning

    Pace of CENTCOM redirections has slowed; analysts will watch for whether the running total reaches 75 by 17 May (one-per-day tempo) or stalls at 65 (target-depletion signal).

    Short term · Assessed
  • Meaning

    Two unnamed disabled tankers remain an attribution gap that may become a press-freedom or congressional-reporting story.

    Short term · Assessed
  • Meaning

    Without an AUMF, the standing order's narrow scope limits CENTCOM's ability to act against non-Iranian-port-destined traffic carrying Iranian cargo.

    Short term · Assessed
  • Meaning

    Atlantic-basin barrel-backfill demand may continue to keep WTI above $95 even if Brent eases back toward the $101 floor.

    Short term · Assessed
First Reported In

Update #94 · Tehran writes, Trump tweets, Brent breaks

ABC News· 11 May 2026
Read original
Causes and effects
Different Perspectives
NATO eastern flank (B9 + Nordics)
NATO eastern flank (B9 + Nordics)
The B9+Nordic Bucharest joint statement on 13 May reaffirmed Ukraine's sovereignty within internationally recognised borders and backed NATO eastern flank reinforcement; the summit accepted Zelenskyy's bilateral drone deal proposal as a structural alternative to the stalled US export approval pathway, treating it as a European defence architecture question rather than aid delivery.
IAEA / Rafael Grossi
IAEA / Rafael Grossi
Grossi is still negotiating a sixth ZNPP repair ceasefire with no agreement after 50 days of 750 kV line disconnection; the 3 May ERCL drone strike that destroyed environmental monitoring equipment represents a qualitative escalation in infrastructure degradation that the IAEA has documented but cannot compel either party to halt.
Péter Magyar / Hungary
Péter Magyar / Hungary
Magyar's incoming foreign minister pledged on 12 May that Hungary will stop abusing EU veto rights; the pledge is a statement of intent rather than a binding legal commitment, and Magyar's MEPs voted against the €90 billion loan as recently as April, while a planned referendum on Ukraine's EU accession preserves a downstream blocking lever.
EU Council and European Commission
EU Council and European Commission
The Magyar cabinet formation on 12 May removes the Hungary veto that had blocked the €9.1 billion first tranche since February; the Commission is now coordinating the three-document disbursement package for an early-June vote. The structural blocker is gone; the disbursement question is now scheduling, not politics.
Donald Trump / White House
Donald Trump / White House
Trump announced a 9-11 May three-day ceasefire with a 1,000-for-1,000 prisoner exchange attached, then called peace 'getting very close' on 11-13 May while Russia's 800-drone barrage was under way; his public framing adopted Russian diplomatic language without securing any Russian operational concession or verifying the exchange was agreed.
Vladimir Putin / Kremlin
Vladimir Putin / Kremlin
Putin told reporters on 9 May the war is 'coming to an end' while Peskov confirmed on 13 May that territorial demands are unchanged and Russia requires full Ukrainian withdrawal from all four annexed regions; the verbal accommodation costs Moscow nothing and conditions any summit on a pre-finalised treaty Kyiv cannot accept.