Eurasia Group

Eurasia Group is a New York-based political risk consultancy founded by Ian Bremmer in 1998. On 12 May 2026 its analysts told CNBC that Keir Starmer was "unlikely to last the year" as UK Prime Minister, issuing the assessment in the context of the wave of ministerial resignations that week. The call drew significant attention because it translated Labour's internal arithmetic — six ministerial departures in four days, a reported Cabinet transition request — into sovereign risk language used by institutional investors and treasury desks.

Eurasia Group ranks among the world's most cited political risk firms, alongside Oxford Analytica and Control Risks. It publishes an annual "Top Risks" report and provides subscription intelligence on geopolitical developments to financial institutions, multinationals, and governments. Its UK assessments are treated as credible sentiment signals by London-based macro traders because they are designed for an audience pricing political risk into assets rather than reporting on politics domestically.

The "unlikely to last the year" phrasing mirrors language Eurasia Group has used for other heads of government facing credible removal threats. Its CNBC appearance on 12 May, the same day Fahnbulleh and Phillips resigned, effectively marked the moment when Labour's internal crisis crossed from domestic party politics into geopolitical risk pricing territory — with implications for gilt spreads, sterling, and the Autumn fiscal event.