Conservative Party
UK official opposition led by Kemi Badenoch; squeezed between Reform on the right and Labour.
The Conservatives took Old Catton from Reform UK and Dereham Toftwood from Labour on 16 July, Reform's first outright by-election defeat of the parliament and a rare sign of Tory recovery.
Last refreshed: 24 July 2026 · Appears in 2 active topics
Do the Old Catton and Dereham Toftwood wins mark a genuine Conservative recovery?
Timeline for Conservative Party
Mentioned in: Harlow becomes fifth council to sue
UK Local Elections 2026Mentioned in: Pollsters split on the Burnham bounce
UK Local Elections 2026Mentioned in: Clacton draws a record 34 candidates
UK Local Elections 2026Mentioned in: Reform loses Old Catton to the Tories
UK Local Elections 2026Reform plateau breaks after five weeks
UK Local Elections 2026Background
The Conservative Party governed the UK continuously from 2010 to 2024 through five prime ministers before a heavy defeat at the July 2024 general election Left it the official opposition, led by Kemi Badenoch since November 2024.
It now sits squeezed between Reform UK on the populist right and a recovering Labour on the centre-Left, a squeeze felt most sharply at the local level after Reform UK took control of Essex, Norfolk and Suffolk county halls in May 2026.
The party's local government base across eastern England has been hollowed out by that shift, leaving individual council gains, rather than a broader realignment, as the main evidence of any recovery so FAR.
Conservatives break Reform's winning streak
The Conservatives took the Old Catton division of Norfolk County Council from Reform UK and Dereham Toftwood on Breckland from Labour on 16 July 2026, Reform's first outright by-election defeat of the parliament.
The two wins followed a run of losses that had seen Essex, Norfolk and Suffolk county halls flip to Reform UK in May, so even two council seats registered as a rare piece of good news for a party that has spent the year defending its remaining local government base rather than expanding it.
Conservatives sit third amid fragmentation
A YouGov poll taken in the days after Andy Burnham's leadership bounce put the Conservatives on 21% on 20 July 2026, third behind Reform UK on 23% and just ahead of Labour on 20%.
The party has spent since June largely tied with Labour rather than closing on Reform, with YouGov's 12-13 July fieldwork putting both main parties at 19% each while the Greens rose to 15%, their fastest movement of the Parliament. Five-party fragmentation is squeezing the Conservatives from both flanks rather than opening them a clear opposition lane.
Findlay holds off his Tory rivals
Scottish Conservative leader Russell Findlay co-opted internal rivals into his top team on 14 May 2026 rather than facing them down, a move that steadied his position ahead of the party's worst Holyrood result in decades.
The Scottish Conservatives fell to 12 Holyrood seats, their worst result since 1999, in nominations that closed with a record 39 retirements across the chamber. All future Scottish Conservative representation now depends heavily on the regional list rather than constituency wins.