22OCT

Labour holds Holborn as Greens close in

2 min read

16:26UTC

Camden Council leader Sagal Abdi-Wali kept Keir Starmer's old seat for Labour on 8 October, beating Green leader Zack Polanski by 3,364 votes.

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PoliticsAssessed

Key takeaway

Sagal Abdi-Wali held the seat for Labour by 3,364 votes over Zack Polanski.

Sagal Abdi-Wali, Labour leader of Camden Council, held Holborn and St Pancras on 8 October with 12,292 votes (45.2%), beating Green Party of England and Wales leader Zack Polanski on 8,928 (32.8%) by 3,364⁠¹. The seat was Keir Starmer's; he resigned as Labour leader and prime minister in June, and 15 candidates stood. Turnout was 38.6% of an electorate of 70,449.

The declaration shows more than the top two. The Conservatives' Ewan Cameron came third on 1,922 (7.1%), ahead of Reform UK on 1,612 (5.9%) and Restore Britain on 692. George Galloway, standing in person for the Workers Party of Britain, polled 314; the Liberal Democrats finished fifth on 3.4%, behind Reform.

James Heale of The Spectator read the result as proof of Andy Burnham's main achievement since replacing Starmer, "uniting much of the left of centre bloc behind him"⁠². Labour's share fell about 4 points on 2024, in a campaign fought a week after Burnham promised conference a change of voting system. Abdi-Wali campaigned on homelessness, water companies and youth opportunity, and kept Starmer off her literature.

The Green share still rose by about 22 points on 2024, turning a safe Labour seat into a two-party race. Polanski's pitch had been "Vote Green and watch Labour move". Asked whether Polanski should stand down, the former Green leader Caroline Lucas said: "let's just see what happens in the coming days and weeks."

Deep Analysis

In plain English

A by-election is a vote held in one parliamentary seat when its MP leaves. Holborn and St Pancras, in central London, needed a new MP after Keir Starmer quit as prime minister and Labour leader in June. Labour picked Sagal Abdi-Wali, who leads the local council, Camden. The Green Party sent its own national leader, Zack Polanski, to try to take the seat. Labour won comfortably. The Greens came second with a much bigger share than last time. The Conservatives and Reform UK, the parties on the right, finished well behind.

Deep Analysis

Root Causes

By-elections usually reward protest, because a single seat cannot change the government. That logic is weaker months after a change of prime minister, when voters judge a government still forming rather than one they have watched for years.

The deposit rule shapes how parties read the night. A candidate pays £500 and gets it back only above 5% of the vote. That made the Conservative-Reform contest for third, and the Liberal Democrat loss of deposit, signals in their own right.

Labour chose a sitting council leader. A candidate with an existing local profile carries a personal vote that a national party leader parachuted into the seat lacks.

What could happen next?

Meaning
The Greens can now claim a strong second place in a Labour seat, a base for targeting similar inner-city seats at the next general election.
Long term · Suggested
Risk
Polanski's personal defeat invites internal questions over his leadership and his plans to give party leaders more control over policy.
Short term · Suggested
Consequence
Reform UK finishing fourth behind the Conservatives weakens its claim to be the main challenger everywhere outside Labour heartlands.
Medium term · Suggested

Source Landscape

This story draws on neutral-leaning sources from United Kingdom

United Kingdom

Primary parallel: Nigel Farage stood for UKIP in South Thanet at the May 2015 general election, staking his leadership on one seat. He lost to the Conservative Craig Mackinlay, resigned as leader, then withdrew the resignation within days.

Counter-parallel: Caroline Lucas, then Green Party leader, won Brighton Pavilion in May 2010 after the party had spent years building a council base in the city. That breakthrough came from local organisation that preceded the leader's candidacy, which a single by-election campaign cannot replicate.

Consensus view: Labour's share fell about 4 points on 2024 while The Greens' rose about 22. The Green rise far outran Labour's fall, so the other parties' combined share also fell, and the seat became a two-way contest.

Counter-view: The Spectator's coverage pointed to the other end of the ballot: the Conservatives beat Reform and kept their deposit, which it called a first for a leading right-of-centre party in an English by-election this Parliament. On that reading, the result says as much about the right's realignment as about the left.

Key tension: Whether loyalty to a new Labour prime minister held the seat, or whether the Green surge simply ran out of voters in a seat where Labour's local base, the council leader herself, was on the ballot.

First Reported In

Update #19 · ITV footage drives Reform councillors out

UK Parliament· 22 Oct 2026

Read original →

Causes and effects

Caused by

Holborn's by-election puts 15 on the ballot

The 15-candidate nomination set up the 8 October poll.

Occurred 15 Sept 2026

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Burnham pledges to change voting system

Burnham's voting-system pledge came a week before polling day.

Occurred 29 Sept 2026

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This Event

Labour holds Holborn as Greens close in

The Greens turned a safe Labour seat into a two-party race, even as Labour held it under its new leader.

Different Perspectives

Scottish National Party / John Swinney

Swinney told the SNP conference in Aberdeen on 17 October that Scotland is ready for independence, but set no referendum date, bill or Section 30 request. He launched a new campaign instead and extended the £2 bus fare cap to the north east from April 2027.

Liberal Democrats / Ed Davey

Davey ruled out a national partnership with the Greens on 19 October after their Brighton conference passed a "Zionism is racism" motion, and wrote to two Jewish community bodies. He left untouched the councils the two parties already run together.

Reform UK / Richard Tice

Tice alleged ITV's reporter used false details to get a press-office job and said ITV had "likely broken the law", telling members not to speak to it until it apologises. Reform also opened investigations into members, with some suspensions, so the party is contesting the broadcaster and disciplining councillors at once.

Rhun ap Iorwerth / Welsh Government (Plaid Cymru)

Ap Iorwerth presented six priorities to the Senedd on 22 September without numeric targets or a named partner party, promising to work across the chamber where there is common ground. He says his government will be judged on results.

Michael Marra / Scottish Labour

Marra won the leadership on 19 September, and three days later his 17 MSPs backed Swinney's right-to-decide motion once their child-poverty amendment was written in. He says Scottish Labour's task is to tell voters what it stands for.

Andy Burnham / Labour Party

Burnham told conference in Liverpool on 29 September that Labour's next manifesto will commit to changing the electoral system, and invited every party into a National Commission on Electoral Reform. He has not named a replacement system, and no chair or remit has been published.

Written with AI from Lowdown's published reporting. Not individually reviewed by an editor. Editorial standards.