Projections range from 15 (YouGov MRP, all regional list) to 17 (Electoral Calculus, one constituency). Either outcome would make Scottish Labour the official Holyrood opposition.Source: YouGov / Electoral Calculus MRP

What did the IFS say about Scottish Labour's manifesto?

The IFS found Scottish Labour's proposals exceed unallocated funding by £4.4 billion, with no credible explanation of where the money comes from. All four Scottish party plans were rejected.Source: Institute for Fiscal Studies

Why is Scottish Labour winning so few constituency seats?

The party's constituency base collapsed in 2015 and has not recovered. Under AMS, list seats are distributed to compensate smaller parties, so Labour's modest vote share concentrates in list allocations.

Background

Scottish Labour is the devolved branch of the UK Labour Party operating within Scotland. After a catastrophic collapse in the 2015 UK general election — when the party lost 40 of its 41 Scottish Westminster seats — and subsequent Holyrood defeats, Scottish Labour rebuilt under leader Anas Sarwar (since 2021), an experienced Holyrood politician who succeeded Richard Leonard. The party campaigns on a social-democratic platform distinct from the SNP's constitutional focus and the Conservatives' unionist economics.

On 7 May 2026 Scottish Labour won 17 Holyrood seats, tying with Reform UK as the joint second-largest party. No seats came from constituencies — the Electoral Calculus pre-election projection that Daniel Johnson would hold Edinburgh Southern in a constituency win did not materialise. All 17 seats came from regional lists. The result displaces the Scottish Conservatives from the opposition benches they held since 2016, a symbolic recovery for Labour in Scotland. Sarwar's performance in the BBC Scotland debate was widely assessed as the most effective of any party leader — though tactical voting currents ran partly against Labour, with the SNP and others pressing the 'keep Reform out' message.

Scottish Labour's 17-seat position is structurally fragile: all seats come from regional lists, meaning the party has no direct constituency mandate anywhere in Scotland. Sarwar's leadership faces mounting scrutiny given the party did not improve on the 2021 result. The strategic challenge is to rebuild the constituency relationships that collapsed in 2015 before Reform UK, entering Scottish politics with a harder-edged unionist-populist message, permanently occupies the space between the SNP and a declining Tory vote.