Is the Bab al-Mandeb about to be closed by Houthis?: ICG Yemen analyst Ahmed Nagi warned Houthis are 'very likely to escalate' in Bab el-Mandeb if the Hormuz blockade bites. Former Iranian FM Velayati said the resistance front 'views Bab al-Mandeb as it does Hormuz'. Saudi Arabia cited this risk formally on 14 April.Source: ICG / PressTV
What happens to oil prices if Bab al-Mandeb closes?: The dual-chokepoint scenario of simultaneous Hormuz and Bab al-Mandeb closure would cut roughly 25% of global seaborne energy supply. Markets had not priced this risk as of 14 April 2026, even as Brent traded at .79.
How wide is the Bab al-Mandeb strait?: The Bab al-Mandeb is approximately 30 kilometres wide at its narrowest point, between Yemen and Djibouti and Eritrea.
What is the alternate route if Bab al-Mandeb closes?: Ships would divert via the Cape of Good Hope, adding approximately 60% to Asia-Europe journey times and roughly 10-14 days per voyage, significantly raising freight rates.
Has Iran blocked Bab al-Mandeb?: As of 2 June 2026, Iran had authorised activating Bab al-Mandeb as a second chokepoint following the suspension of MOU talks with the United States on 1 June, but no vessel had been interdicted and Houthi forces had not formally moved into blocking positions. The threat remains at the authorisation stage.Source: Lowdown Iran Conflict 2026
Where is the Bab al-Mandeb strait?: Bab al-Mandeb is a 30km-wide strait between Yemen to the east and Djibouti and Eritrea to the west, connecting the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and Indian Ocean. It sits at Latitude 12.6°N.
What happens to oil prices if Bab al-Mandeb is blocked?: Closure of Bab al-Mandeb combined with the existing Hormuz blockade would cut approximately 25% of global seaborne energy supply — a scenario without modern precedent. Markets began pricing the threat on 1 June 2026 when Brent spiked nearly 7% intraday before the Lebanon Ceasefire pared the gain.Source: Lowdown Iran Conflict 2026
Did the Houthis close Bab al-Mandeb in 2023 or 2024?: The Houthis did not fully close Bab al-Mandeb in 2023-25 but conducted over 100 attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, halving transit volumes and triggering the largest naval escort operation since the Cold War. Full closure was not achieved but disruption was extensive.

Background

The Bab al-Mandeb is a 30km-wide strait separating Yemen from Djibouti and Eritrea, connecting the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and the Indian Ocean. It handles roughly 10% of global seaborne oil and approximately a quarter of container traffic. The United States and France maintain major military bases at Djibouti's Camp Lemonnier; China opened its first overseas base there in 2017.

The strait has been under threat since the beginning of the Hormuz blockade in March 2026. A Houthi minister threatened closure as early as 28 March 2026, and Saudi Arabia formally cited Bab al-Mandeb risk in its 14 April pressure on Washington to end the Hormuz blockade. By mid-April, International Crisis Group Yemen analyst Ahmed Nagi told PressTV that Houthi forces are 'very likely to escalate in Bab el-Mandeb' if the blockade tightens further.

On 1 June 2026, following Iran's suspension of MOU talks with the United States, Tasnim News Agency reported that Iran had authorised activating Bab al-Mandeb as a second chokepoint. As of 2 June, no vessel had been interdicted at the strait and Houthi forces had not formally moved into blocking positions. The threat remains at the authorisation stage, not the activation stage — but markets price announcements, not outcomes: the dual-chokepoint scenario, cutting approximately 25% of global seaborne energy supply, is now a named Iranian option rather than an analyst hypothesis.

Source Material

Bab el-Mandeb Strait chokepoint Bab el-Mandeb