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US Midterms 2026
22OCT

Sabato's 11 moves include Kiggans's seat

2 min read
20:36UTC

Sabato's Crystal Ball moved 11 House races towards Democrats on 29 September, including three Virginia seats and a Missouri district reshaped by the Supreme Court's map order.

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Key takeaway

Sabato's Crystal Ball now puts Democrats five seats short of a House majority before Toss-ups.

Sabato's Crystal Ball, the race-rating newsletter of the University of Virginia Center for Politics, made 11 House rating changes on 29 September, all towards Democrats⁠1. It now counts 213 seats at least Leans Democratic, 202 at least Leans Republican and 20 Toss-ups. On seats leaning their way or better, Democrats sit five short of a House majority.

Three moves were in Virginia, where in-person voting opened on 18 September. Its 2nd District, held by Republican Jen Kiggans, went to Leans Democratic, the 1st to Toss-up and the 5th to Leans Republican. Sabato wrote that a Democratic win in the 5th would fit a 2006-style wave, the year Democrats gained 31 seats and The House in George W. Bush's second midterm.

Another move followed the Supreme Court's Missouri order. Sabato shifted Missouri's 2nd District, where Republican Ann Wagner faces Democrat Fred Wellman, from Likely to Leans Republican. It wrote that the order left Wagner in a "blue-trending Trump +8 seat", a district Trump won by eight points. The 2025 map, which the 8th Circuit had ordered on 21 September, would have given her a district he carried by 11.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

Sabato's Crystal Ball is an elections newsletter from the University of Virginia's Center for Politics. It is separate from The Cook Political Report but rates races on a similar scale, from Safe to Likely to Leans, with Toss-up in the middle. On 29 September it moved 11 House races, every one towards Democrats. It now puts Democrats ahead in 213 seats. A party needs 218 to control The House, so Democrats are close but not there on this count. Three changes were in Virginia, where people have voted in person since 18 September. One was in Missouri, where the Supreme Court has just decided which district map the state will use.

Deep Analysis
Root Causes

Virginia is the first big test of turnout this autumn because in-person early voting opened there on 18 September. Raters can watch early turnout in a state with several Republican-held marginal seats before most states have opened polling places.

Missouri's move follows from the courts. The 8th Circuit had ordered the 2025 map , and the Supreme Court's 25 September order reversed it. Under the 2025 map, HB 1, the 2nd District would have been redrawn to a safer Republican seat; under the 2022 map it stays more competitive.

Escalation

Moving towards Democrats. Sabato's 11 moves came four days after Cook's 15, all in the same direction, and neither rater has moved a House seat towards Republicans in that stretch.

What could happen next?
  • Consequence

    Missouri's 2nd District becomes a seat both parties may contest because the Supreme Court kept the 2022 lines.

  • Meaning

    Sabato's 213 and Cook's 208 both fall short of 218, so neither rater yet shows a Democratic majority in its leaning columns.

Sources:Sabato's Crystal Ball
Mentions:Sabato's Crystal Ball →Missouri's 2nd congressional district →Ann Wagner →Fred Wellman →Virginia →Virginia's 2nd congressional district →Jen Kiggans →Missouri →J. Miles Coleman →George W. Bush →Cook Political Report →Supreme Court of the United States →University of Virginia Center for Politics →Inside Elections →Virginia's 5th congressional district →Virginia's 1st congressional district →Elaine Luria →
First Reported In

Update #19 · Bulk voter citizenship checks are back

Sabato's Crystal Ball· 1 Oct 2026
Read original →
Causes and effects
Caused by
Justices keep Missouri on its 2022 map
Sabato moved Missouri's 2nd District to Leans Republican after the order kept the 2022 map.
Occurred 25 Sept 2026
Read story →
This Event
Sabato's 11 moves include Kiggans's seat
A second rater now has Democrats within five seats of a House majority before any Toss-up is counted.
Led to
Cook and Sabato moves run to Democrats
Sabato's September House moves pointed the same way.
Occurred 14 Oct 2026
Read story →
Different Perspectives
Judge Adolf Zeman, Alaska Superior Court
Judge Adolf Zeman, Alaska Superior Court
Zeman refused to dismiss the League of Women Voters, Alaska Black Caucus and ACLU of Alaska suit over the state giving DOJ its unredacted voter list. The privacy claims now go to evidence-gathering under the Alaska Constitution.
Judge Thomas Schroeder, US District Court for the Middle District of North Carolina
Judge Thomas Schroeder, US District Court for the Middle District of North Carolina
Schroeder refused on 19 October to block the State Board of Elections rule that rejects mail ballots with an unsealed or missing inner envelope. He found the challengers had delayed and that relief was infeasible with voting under way, and pointed to notice-and-cure provisions as a safeguard.
Stephen Richer, Republican former Maricopa County recorder
Stephen Richer, Republican former Maricopa County recorder
Richer submitted a brief on 20 October supporting the voting groups on documentary proof of citizenship at registration. He takes no position on the separate 90-day voter-removal question.
Senate Leadership Fund
Senate Leadership Fund
The Senate Leadership Fund began spending for interim Senator Darline Graham Nordone on 19 October, taking its South Carolina total to $4.06m, including $2.25m against Democrat Annie Andrews. Republicans are now paying to defend a seat in a state Donald Trump carried in 2024.
WinSenate, the ad-buying affiliate of Senate Majority PAC
WinSenate, the ad-buying affiliate of Senate Majority PAC
WinSenate began buying Kansas airtime against Roger Marshall on 10 October and had reported $8.14m there by 20 October. Marshall held $922,088 in cash on 30 September and the NRSC gave him no party money in September, so the Democratic side is spending where the Republican committee has not.
County Board of Arlington County
County Board of Arlington County
Arlington says federal Polling Place Policies allowing armed agents at polling sites breach 18 USC 592, the 1865 ban on troops or armed men at an election. It reads Markwayne Mullin's 1 September remarks as confirming such a policy, and asks Judge Brinkema to keep armed federal staff from its polls and drop boxes.

Written with AI from Lowdown's published reporting. Not individually reviewed by an editor. Editorial standards.