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US Midterms 2026
22OCT

12 Days to Go: Senate GOP's cash lead trails its $20m loan

3 min read
20:36UTC

The Republican Senate committee borrowed $20m against its deposits and donor list in September, more than its cash lead over the Democrats, as Democratic Party spending with candidates rose from $1.00m to $21.05m. super PACs now carry the seats it skipped, and the Justice Department wants California to hold back mail ballots from 20,000 listed voters.

Key takeaway

The NRSC's September cash lead rests on a $20m loan, while Democrats moved their party money into the races.

This briefing mapped
Economic
Legal
Domestic

The Senate Republicans' campaign arm drew $20m from Chain Bridge Bank in September, pledging its cash and the names of its donors. Its lead over the DSCC at month's end was $3.35m.

Sources profile:This story draws on neutral-leaning sources

The National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) borrowed $20m from Chain Bridge Bank in September. It pledged its bank deposits and its list of donors as security. On 30 September it held $28.29m in cash, while its Democratic rival held $24.94m.

Take the loan away and the Republican Senate arm would be behind. Repayment is due on 31 August 2027. 

The Justice Department renewed its emergency bid on 21 October to make California set aside ballots sent to 20,000 voters it calls likely non-citizens. Los Angeles County says many on the list were born in the US.

Sources profile:This story draws on neutral-leaning sources from United States
United States
LeftRight

The Justice Department (DOJ) asked a federal court again on 21 October to make California hold back mail ballots. They were sent to more than 20,000 people that DOJ calls likely non-citizens. Judge David O. Carter now has the case.

DOJ has charged 28 people from that list. Los Angeles County says over a quarter of the listed voters it checked gave a US birthplace. No judge has ruled yet. 

Seven plaintiffs led by the DSCC, with Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries among them, sued the President on 20 October. They allege a course of threats to prosecute state election officials.

Sources profile:This story draws on neutral-leaning sources

Seven Democratic plaintiffs, including Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries, sued Donald Trump in Washington on 20 October. They say his administration threatens state election officials with criminal charges. Chief Judge James Boasberg took the case the next day.

Both Democratic campaign committees for Congress are now suing the sitting President over how an election is run. They want a court to stop the threats before polling day on 3 November. 

The DSCC went from $1.00m to $21.05m of party spending with its Senate nominees in September, while the NRSC cut back. The Republican edge fell from 10.5 to 1 to 1.7 to 1.

Sources profile:This story draws on neutral-leaning sources

Democratic Senate and House committees spent $48.62m alongside their candidates in September, up from $5.09m in August. Republican committees spent $80.83m. The Republican lead in this party spending fell from 10.5 to 1 to 1.7 to 1 in a month.

September fell almost wholly inside the 60-day candidate-rate window. The filings show the timing of Democratic spending, not the committees' reasons. 

Texas PAC, funded by the Senate Leadership Fund, reported $32.35m against James Talarico in one 24-hour filing on 21 October. Its spending in the race now stands at $180.93m.

Sources profile:This story draws on neutral-leaning sources

TEXAS PAC (a Super PAC funded by the Senate Leadership Fund) reported $32.35m against Democrat James Talarico in one filing on 21 October. Its spending in the Texas Senate race reached $180.93m, up from $131.53m on 30 September.

TEXAS PAC made both payments on 20 October, a day after in-person early voting opened. Harris County cast about 105,000 ballots on that first day. 

The ad arm of Senate Majority PAC has reported $8.14m against Kansas Senator Roger Marshall since 10 October. On his side, the Senate Leadership Fund has put in $6.29m while the NRSC gave him nothing in September.

Sources profile:This story draws on neutral-leaning sources

WinSenate, the ad-buying arm of the Democratic-aligned Senate Majority PAC (political action committee), reported $8.14m of Kansas ads against Senator Roger Marshall from 10 to 20 October. On the Republican side, the Senate Leadership Fund spent $6.29m.

The Republican Senate committee gave Marshall no party money in September. Kansas has not elected a Democratic senator since 1932, and outside groups are now paying for the fight. 

Arlington County's board sued DHS, ICE, DOJ and the FBI on 20 October under an 1865 law that bars troops or armed men at the place of an election. It wants armed federal staff kept from every voting site in the county.

Sources profile:This story draws on neutral-leaning sources

The Senate Leadership Fund filed $50.41m of independent spending in seven reports in a week. South Carolina, where it now backs interim Senator Darline Graham Nordone, took $4.06m.

Sources profile:This story draws on neutral-leaning sources

North Carolina took 1,050,226 in-person early votes by 21 October, state data files show. Mail ballots received but not counted rose to 2,133. Separately, a federal judge left the new inner-envelope rule standing.

Sources profile:This story draws on neutral-leaning sources

North Carolina took 1,050,226 in-person early votes by 21 October, about 13% of its 7.9m registered voters. Monday 19 October was the busiest day, with 203,580.

Mail ballots received but not counted rose to 2,133 by 22 October, from 1,400 a week earlier. Separately, a new envelope rule remains in force. The files do not give a reason for each ballot not counted. 

An Alaska judge refused to dismiss a privacy suit over the state handing the Justice Department its unredacted voter list. The list carried licence numbers and partial Social Security numbers.

Sources profile:This story draws on neutral-leaning sources

Alaska Superior Court Judge Adolf Zeman refused to throw out a privacy suit over the state's voter list, Alaska Public Media reported on 21 October. Alaska gave the Justice Department the full list in 2025, with licence and partial Social Security numbers.

The case now goes to evidence-gathering under Alaska's own constitution. Zeman wrote that the state had given the department carte blanche to submit removals whenever it pleases. 

Stephen Richer, the Republican former Maricopa County recorder, submitted a Supreme Court brief on 20 October supporting the voting groups on documentary proof of citizenship at registration. He takes no position on the separate 90-day voter-removal question.

Sources profile:This story draws on neutral-leaning sources
Closing comments

Up. Judge David O. Carter can rule at any time on DOJ's renewed 21 October application to set aside mail ballots sent to more than 20,000 listed California voters, and Los Angeles Registrar Dean Logan's motion to dismiss is set for hearing on 30 October 2026, four days before polling day. A ballot order from Carter, or an early ruling from Judge Leonie Brinkema in Arlington's case, would carry the fight from court filings into the count itself.

Different Perspectives
Trent McCotter, Acting Deputy Attorney General, Justice Department
Trent McCotter, Acting Deputy Attorney General, Justice Department
Announcing charges against 28 lawful permanent residents on 19 October, McCotter said California must verify the citizenship of the more than 20,000 listed registrants before their mail ballots are counted. The department says every defendant appears on that list, and it renewed its request for a court order on 21 October.
Los Angeles County, in its 20 October court opposition
Los Angeles County, in its 20 October court opposition
Los Angeles County told the Court that over a quarter of the listed voters at its addresses gave a US place of birth, and nearly 40% of sampled entries were registrations already cancelled. It says the vast majority had never cast a ballot, and it opposes any order to set those ballots aside.
Democratic plaintiffs in DSCC v. Trump, including Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries
Democratic plaintiffs in DSCC v. Trump, including Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries
The seven plaintiffs sued Donald Trump, DOJ and DHS on 20 October, citing his repost of a DOJ letter to California officials with the words "They will all go to jail for a long period of time!!!". They ask Chief Judge Boasberg to stop what they call threats of prosecution before 3 November.
County Board of Arlington County
County Board of Arlington County
Arlington says federal Polling Place Policies allowing armed agents at polling sites breach 18 USC 592, the 1865 ban on troops or armed men at an election. It reads Markwayne Mullin's 1 September remarks as confirming such a policy, and asks Judge Brinkema to keep armed federal staff from its polls and drop boxes.
WinSenate, the ad-buying affiliate of Senate Majority PAC
WinSenate, the ad-buying affiliate of Senate Majority PAC
WinSenate began buying Kansas airtime against Roger Marshall on 10 October and had reported $8.14m there by 20 October. Marshall held $922,088 in cash on 30 September and the NRSC gave him no party money in September, so the Democratic side is spending where the Republican committee has not.