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US Midterms 2026
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Sabato's 11 moves include Kiggans's seat

2 min read
08:56UTC

Sabato's Crystal Ball moved 11 House races towards Democrats on 29 September, including three Virginia seats and a Missouri district reshaped by the Supreme Court's map order.

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PoliticsDeveloping
Key takeaway

Sabato's Crystal Ball now puts Democrats five seats short of a House majority before Toss-ups.

Sabato's Crystal Ball, the race-rating newsletter of the University of Virginia Center for Politics, made 11 House rating changes on 29 September, all towards Democrats⁠1. It now counts 213 seats at least Leans Democratic, 202 at least Leans Republican and 20 Toss-ups. On seats leaning their way or better, Democrats sit five short of a House majority.

Three moves were in Virginia, where in-person voting opened on 18 September. Its 2nd District, held by Republican Jen Kiggans, went to Leans Democratic, the 1st to Toss-up and the 5th to Leans Republican. Sabato wrote that a Democratic win in the 5th would fit a 2006-style wave, the year Democrats gained 31 seats and the House in George W. Bush's second midterm.

Another move followed the Supreme Court's Missouri order. Sabato shifted Missouri's 2nd District, where Republican Ann Wagner faces Democrat Fred Wellman, from Likely to Leans Republican. It wrote that the order left Wagner in a "blue-trending Trump +8 seat", a district Trump won by eight points. The 2025 map, which the 8th Circuit had ordered on 21 September, would have given her a district he carried by 11.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

Sabato's Crystal Ball is an elections newsletter from the University of Virginia's Center for Politics. It is separate from The Cook Political Report but rates races on a similar scale, from Safe to Likely to Leans, with Toss-up in the middle. On 29 September it moved 11 House races, every one towards Democrats. It now puts Democrats ahead in 213 seats. A party needs 218 to control the House, so Democrats are close but not there on this count. Three changes were in Virginia, where people have voted in person since 18 September. One was in Missouri, where the Supreme Court has just decided which district map the state will use.

Deep Analysis
Root Causes

Virginia is the first big test of turnout this autumn because in-person early voting opened there on 18 September. Raters can watch early turnout in a state with several Republican-held marginal seats before most states have opened polling places.

Missouri's move follows from the courts. The 8th Circuit had ordered the 2025 map, and the Supreme Court's 25 September order reversed it. Under the 2025 map, HB 1, the 2nd District would have been redrawn to a safer Republican seat; under the 2022 map it stays more competitive.

Escalation

Moving towards Democrats. Sabato's 11 moves came four days after Cook's 15, all in the same direction, and neither rater has moved a House seat towards Republicans in that stretch.

What could happen next?
  • Consequence

    Missouri's 2nd District becomes a seat both parties may contest because the Supreme Court kept the 2022 lines.

  • Meaning

    Sabato's 213 and Cook's 208 both fall short of 218, so neither rater yet shows a Democratic majority in its leaning columns.

Sources:Sabato's Crystal Ball
Mentions:Sabato's Crystal Ball →Missouri's 2nd congressional district →Ann Wagner →Fred Wellman →Virginia →Virginia's 2nd congressional district →Jen Kiggans →Missouri →J. Miles Coleman →George W. Bush →Cook Political Report →Supreme Court of the United States →University of Virginia Center for Politics →Inside Elections →Virginia's 5th congressional district →Virginia's 1st congressional district →Elaine Luria →
First Reported In

Update #19 · Bulk voter citizenship checks are back

Sabato's Crystal Ball· 1 Oct 2026
Read original →
Causes and effects
Caused by
Justices keep Missouri on its 2022 map
Sabato moved Missouri's 2nd District to Leans Republican after the order kept the 2022 map.
Occurred 25 Sept 2026
Read story →
This Event
Sabato's 11 moves include Kiggans's seat
A second rater now has Democrats within five seats of a House majority before any Toss-up is counted.
Led to
Cook and Sabato moves run to Democrats
Sabato's September House moves pointed the same way.
Occurred 14 Oct 2026
Read story →
Different Perspectives
Missouri voters
Missouri voters
Missouri voters rejected Proposition A by 61.83% to 38.17% at 95% reporting, repealing the 2025 map that split Kansas City. Trump carried the state, yet its 2022 lines now stay for future elections too.
Senate Leadership Fund (SLF)
Senate Leadership Fund (SLF)
SLF reported about $43.9m of independent expenditures from 27 October to 1 November, almost all against Democrats, including $12.37m against Sherrod Brown. Seven of its ten targets won; Dan Osborn lost in Nebraska and two are uncalled.
Richard Hudson, chair of the National Republican Congressional Committee
Richard Hudson, chair of the National Republican Congressional Committee
Hudson, who runs House Republicans' campaign arm, conceded North Carolina's 9th District to Richard Ojeda before any AP call. Democrats lead 10 of the state's 14 House districts on the unofficial feed.
Department of Justice (DOJ)
Department of Justice (DOJ)
DOJ lost before Judge David O. Carter on 28 October and a 9th Circuit panel on 30 October on its demand to set aside 20,000 California ballots, and says it will appeal the Alaska dismissal. No court has set a ballot aside.
Senator Dan S. Sullivan
Senator Dan S. Sullivan
Sullivan, who trails Mary Peltola 48.2% to 47.9% on first choices, told CNN he would accept the result. DOJ's suit to stop Alaska certifying anyone but him was dismissed on 1 November.
Scott Colom's campaign
Scott Colom's campaign
Colom's campaign estimates that about 15,000 affidavit ballots remain to be counted in a race he leads by roughly 65 to 100 votes. Those ballots count only if voters confirm their ID or eligibility by 5pm on 10 November.

Written with AI from Lowdown's published reporting. Not individually reviewed by an editor. Editorial standards.