Skip to content
Welcome, thoughtbot's Giant Robots listeners!Start here
US Midterms 2026
5NOV

Colom tops Hyde-Smith by under 100 votes

3 min read
00:50UTC

Scott Colom led Senator Cindy Hyde-Smith by roughly 65 to 100 votes of about 945,600 counted, the closest Senate race in the country.

← Back to Democrats take the Senate and the HouseJump to analysis ↓
PoliticsDeveloping
Key takeaway

Colom's lead of under 100 votes now rests on affidavit and late mail ballots due by 10 November.

Scott Colom, the Democrat, led Senator Cindy Hyde-Smith by roughly 65 to 100 votes of about 945,600 counted in Mississippi's Senate race on Wednesday 4 November⁠1. NBC showed both on 48.9% with 95.4% of the expected vote in⁠2. Colom's campaign estimates that about 15,000 affidavit ballots, cast by voters whose ID or eligibility must still be confirmed, remain to be counted⁠3.

No runoff follows. The majority rule in section 23-15-193(2) of the Mississippi Code covers only "state officers"⁠4, and the Mississippi Secretary of State's calendar keeps its 1 December runoff for judges and school boards⁠5. A plurality, the most votes even if short of half, takes the Senate seat; independent Ty Pinkins and others hold about 2.2%.

The count runs to three dates⁠6: - Tuesday 10 November, 5pm: mail ballots postmarked by 3 November must reach circuit clerks, and affidavit voters must show photo ID. - Friday 13 November: counties send certified returns to the Secretary of State. - Thursday 3 December: the Secretary of State declares the result.

The late mail ballots count because the Supreme Court upheld Mississippi's postmark grace period in Watson v. RNC in June. Mississippi holds recounts "only in the event of a court order", the Associated Press (AP) notes⁠7, so any fight over late and cured ballots goes to a judge rather than to an automatic recount.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

Mississippi is choosing one of its two US senators. The Republican incumbent, Cindy Hyde-Smith, and the Democrat, Scott Colom, are separated by fewer than 100 votes out of nearly a million. Some ballots are still out. Affidavit ballots are cast by voters whose identity or eligibility must be checked; they count only if the voter shows photo ID by 10 November. Mail ballots posted by polling day also count if they arrive by then. Mississippi has no second round for this race, so whoever ends with the most votes wins. Counties certify their totals by 13 November and the state declares the result on 3 December.

Deep Analysis
Root Causes

Mississippi's majority-and-runoff rule in section 23-15-193(2) covers only state officers, so a federal race goes to whoever has the most votes. Independent Ty Pinkins and other candidates hold about 2.2%, more than enough to keep both leaders under half.

Turnout ran about a third higher than the roughly 709,000 who voted in the 2022 midterms. A larger electorate means more affidavit and mail ballots to process, and more ballots for each side to challenge county by county.

What could happen next?
  • Risk

    A margin under 100 votes with no automatic recount makes a court fight over cured and late ballots likely.

  • Consequence

    The result is not final until the Secretary of State's declaration on 3 December.

Sources:NBC News·CBS News·CNBC
Mentions:Scott Colom →Cindy Hyde-Smith →Associated Press →NBC News →Mississippi →Minnesota →Watson v. RNC →Democratic Party →Mississippi Secretary of State →Mississippi Code →
First Reported In

Update #23 · Democrats take the Senate and the House

NBC News· 5 Nov 2026
Read original →
Different Perspectives
Missouri voters
Missouri voters
Missouri voters rejected Proposition A by 61.83% to 38.17% at 95% reporting, repealing the 2025 map that split Kansas City. Trump carried the state, yet its 2022 lines now stay for future elections too.
Senate Leadership Fund (SLF)
Senate Leadership Fund (SLF)
SLF reported about $43.9m of independent expenditures from 27 October to 1 November, almost all against Democrats, including $12.37m against Sherrod Brown. Seven of its ten targets won; Dan Osborn lost in Nebraska and two are uncalled.
Richard Hudson, chair of the National Republican Congressional Committee
Richard Hudson, chair of the National Republican Congressional Committee
Hudson, who runs House Republicans' campaign arm, conceded North Carolina's 9th District to Richard Ojeda before any AP call. Democrats lead 10 of the state's 14 House districts on the unofficial feed.
Department of Justice (DOJ)
Department of Justice (DOJ)
DOJ lost before Judge David O. Carter on 28 October and a 9th Circuit panel on 30 October on its demand to set aside 20,000 California ballots, and says it will appeal the Alaska dismissal. No court has set a ballot aside.
Senator Dan S. Sullivan
Senator Dan S. Sullivan
Sullivan, who trails Mary Peltola 48.2% to 47.9% on first choices, told CNN he would accept the result. DOJ's suit to stop Alaska certifying anyone but him was dismissed on 1 November.
Scott Colom's campaign
Scott Colom's campaign
Colom's campaign estimates that about 15,000 affidavit ballots remain to be counted in a race he leads by roughly 65 to 100 votes. Those ballots count only if voters confirm their ID or eligibility by 5pm on 10 November.

Written with AI from Lowdown's published reporting. Not individually reviewed by an editor. Editorial standards.