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US Midterms 2026
5NOV

Peltola leads Sullivan by 0.3 points

3 min read
00:50UTC

Mary Peltola led Senator Dan S. Sullivan 48.2% to 47.9% on first choices with 74.3% of the expected vote counted, so Alaska's seat goes to a ranked-choice tabulation on 18 November.

PoliticsDeveloping
Key takeaway

Alaska's Senate seat waits for the 18 November ranked-choice tabulation, with Peltola narrowly ahead.

Mary Peltola led Senator Dan S. Sullivan 48.2% to 47.9% on first choices with 74.3% of the expected vote counted, NBC reported on Wednesday evening⁠1. Neither is near 50%, so the seat goes to Alaska's ranked-choice count. Voters rank the candidates; the last-placed are eliminated in turn and their ballots pass to each voter's next choice until one candidate holds a majority.

The result can turn on the 3.9% of first choices cast so far for other candidates. One of them is Dan J. Sullivan, a retired Petersburg teacher who shares the senator's name. Alaska's elections officials tried to strike him from the ballot in June before the Alaska Supreme Court reinstated him for the primary.

The Alaska Division of Elections will publish updated counts on 10, 13 and 18 November, spokesperson Steve Kirch told Alaska Public Media⁠2. It runs the official ranked-choice tabulation only on Wednesday 18 November, the deadline for the last absentee ballots, and plans to certify, or declare the official result, by 25 November.

US District Judge Sharon Gleason on Sunday 1 November dismissed the Department of Justice (DOJ) suit that sought to stop the state certifying any winner other than Senator Sullivan, calling the relief "infeasible" because ballots were already cast and mixed⁠3. The department said it would appeal. Senator Sullivan told CNN: "I'm going to accept the election results."⁠4

Deep Analysis

In plain English

Alaska elects its senators by ranked choice. Voters number the candidates in order of preference. If nobody gets more than half of first choices, the last-placed candidate drops out and those ballots move to each voter's next choice, round by round, until someone has a majority. Democrat Mary Peltola is narrowly ahead of Republican Senator Dan S. Sullivan, but neither has half. The ranked rounds run on 18 November, and the state plans to certify the result by 25 November. A second candidate, Dan J. Sullivan, a retired teacher, shares the senator's surname and is among the minor candidates whose ballots will be redistributed.

Deep Analysis
Root Causes

Alaska voters adopted open top-four primaries and ranked-choice general elections by ballot measure in 2020. Any race where no candidate passes 50% of first choices therefore waits for a single tabulation day.

Alaska's late count is built into its calendar. The tabulation date is also the deadline for the last absentee ballots, so the state cannot run the ranked rounds before every eligible ballot has arrived.

What could happen next?
  • Consequence

    Alaska's Senate result will not be known before the 18 November tabulation.

  • Risk

    A Justice Department appeal of Gleason's dismissal could keep certification in court after 25 November.

First Reported In

Update #23 · Democrats take the Senate and the House

NBC News· 5 Nov 2026
Read original →
Causes and effects
This Event
Peltola leads Sullivan by 0.3 points
Alaska's seat will not be settled until the 18 November tabulation, and the 3.9% cast for other candidates can decide it.
Different Perspectives
Missouri voters
Missouri voters
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Senate Leadership Fund (SLF)
Senate Leadership Fund (SLF)
SLF reported about $43.9m of independent expenditures from 27 October to 1 November, almost all against Democrats, including $12.37m against Sherrod Brown. Seven of its ten targets won; Dan Osborn lost in Nebraska and two are uncalled.
Richard Hudson, chair of the National Republican Congressional Committee
Richard Hudson, chair of the National Republican Congressional Committee
Hudson, who runs House Republicans' campaign arm, conceded North Carolina's 9th District to Richard Ojeda before any AP call. Democrats lead 10 of the state's 14 House districts on the unofficial feed.
Department of Justice (DOJ)
Department of Justice (DOJ)
DOJ lost before Judge David O. Carter on 28 October and a 9th Circuit panel on 30 October on its demand to set aside 20,000 California ballots, and says it will appeal the Alaska dismissal. No court has set a ballot aside.
Senator Dan S. Sullivan
Senator Dan S. Sullivan
Sullivan, who trails Mary Peltola 48.2% to 47.9% on first choices, told CNN he would accept the result. DOJ's suit to stop Alaska certifying anyone but him was dismissed on 1 November.
Scott Colom's campaign
Scott Colom's campaign
Colom's campaign estimates that about 15,000 affidavit ballots remain to be counted in a race he leads by roughly 65 to 100 votes. Those ballots count only if voters confirm their ID or eligibility by 5pm on 10 November.

Written with AI from Lowdown's published reporting. Not individually reviewed by an editor. Editorial standards.