22 Days to Go: 22 Days to Go: Greens Take a Reform Seat in Kent

PollCheck extended Reform UK's projected council control from three rural counties (Essex, Norfolk, Suffolk) to include Sunderland and Wakefield metropolitan boroughs, adding to the earlier projection . Reform is now projected to win 38 of 63 Wakefield seats and take Sunderland outright, with Labour also projected to lose Wigan and Barnsley.

A geographic reframe. Reform's projected council map has extended from rural Leave counties into Labour's industrial northern heartlands. Read full version ↓

The Institute for Fiscal Studies published its initial response to Scottish Labour's 13 April 2026 manifesto within 24 hours of its launch, finding that short-term spending commitments exceed unallocated Scottish Government funding for the current year and that the long-term welfare vision is 'hard to see' being delivered without substantial Scottish income tax rises on earners below £100,000. This verdict extends the pattern of IFS dismissals that began with earlier party assessments and the cross-party summary .

The Institute for Fiscal Studies rejected Scottish Labour's manifesto within 24 hours of launch, on the same grounds it had used on every rival party this cycle. Read full version ↓

With the Scottish Labour verdict, the IFS completed a full sweep of all five major Scottish Holyrood parties — SNP, Scottish Conservatives, Reform UK, cross-party , and Scottish Labour — finding every one fiscally incredible. This is the first time in 27 years of devolution that the IFS dismissed every contesting party's fiscal plan in a single election cycle.

The IFS has now individually dismissed every contesting Holyrood party's fiscal plan in the same election cycle, a devolution-era first. Read full version ↓

Liberal Democrat deputy leader Daisy Cooper wrote to FCA chief executive Nikhil Rathi on 14 April 2026 requesting a formal investigation into Nigel Farage's involvement with cryptocurrency firm Stack BTC. The letter alleges Farage appeared in Stack BTC promotional material claiming a £2 million bitcoin purchase on the firm's behalf while personally holding a £215,000 stake representing approximately 6% of the company, potentially constituting market abuse and conflict of interest. The FCA confirmed it would review the letter and respond directly. This is a separate regulatory thread from the Electoral Commission's inability to verify Reform's party-level crypto donations .

A separate regulatory front on personal market conduct, not party donations. Different regulator, different rulebook, different evidentiary standard. Read full version ↓

Reform UK's Kent County Council group fell from 57 to 47 seats between May 2025 and April 2026, a loss of 10 councillors through expulsions, defections, and resignations. This is the local instance of the 70-councillor national attrition first tracked in .

Kent is the local proof point for Reform UK's national councillor attrition: a 17% loss in under a year, before a single new vote is cast. Read full version ↓

The Scottish Greens published an 89-page Holyrood manifesto on 14 April 2026, launched by co-leaders Ross Greer and Gillian Mackay at Barras Art and Design in Glasgow. Pledges include free bus travel for all Scots, no new North Sea oil, 40,000 green energy jobs, free dental care, expanded childcare, and a Scottish wealth tax, alongside levies on landlords, supermarkets and gambling firms. The manifesto is the party's platform as it enters the Holyrood election in the context of the IFS five-of-five dismissal .

A Holyrood platform built on free bus travel, a wealth tax and an end to new North Sea oil, launched on the day the IFS completed its five-of-five dismissal. Read full version ↓

Scottish Green co-leader Patrick Harvie said on 14 April 2026 that 'the concept of a fully funded manifesto is misleading' — the only frank on-record admission from any Scottish party leader that IFS fiscal testing no longer sets the campaign's terms, following the five-of-five IFS sweep .

The only on-record acknowledgment by a Scottish party leader that fiscal testing has stopped setting the campaign's terms. Read full version ↓

Spotlight on Corruption published a report on 1 April 2026 identifying three remaining enforcement gaps in the UK's incoming cryptocurrency donations ban: crypto-to-fiat conversion, direct personal donations to MPs, and political memecoins. The gaps persist through the 7 May elections regardless of when the Representation of the People Bill receives Royal Assent. This directly contextualises the Electoral Commission's inability to verify Reform's donation wallet addresses and the party-level regulatory thread tracked since .

The incoming crypto donations ban leaves three enforcement routes open through 7 May, regardless of when the bill passes. Read full version ↓

The Welsh Liberal Democrats published their 96-page Senedd manifesto on 14 April 2026 in Cardiff, led by Jane Dodds, with pledges including £300 million for social care, free childcare from nine months, and a hospital repair programme. The party declined to rule out backing a Reform UK First Minister in any post-7 May confidence vote, making the Welsh Lib Dems the first Welsh party not to formally exclude cooperation with Reform on government formation. The statement must be read against the YouGov Senedd MRP projecting Plaid 43 seats, Reform 30, giving Reform no route to a majority without cross-party support, and the Welsh closed-list PR system .

A rhetorical signal, not a Coalition route. Welsh Lib Dems declined to exclude Reform First Minister support on manifesto day. Read full version ↓

Tensions between Plaid Cymru and the Wales Green Party intensified in public during April 2026, with a Wales Green candidate calling Plaid 'not a left-wing party' and Green leader Anthony Slaughter describing The Greens as the 'only left-wing party in Wales'. Plaid's Carrie Harper responded by warning that voting Green would 'let Reform in' in many Welsh seats. The friction emerged despite both parties being projected by YouGov's Senedd MRP to hold Coalition-forming power (Plaid 43 seats, Greens 10 , combined 53 against the 49-seat majority threshold).

Coalition arithmetic negotiated in public, three weeks before a vote, under a closed-list PR system no voter has used. Read full version ↓

Electoral Commission research published in February 2026, surveying 5,763 people, found that 55% of voters in areas affected by the 7 May 2026 elections were unaware that free photo ID (Voter Authority Certificate) is available. Only 38% of people without photo ID were confident in how to apply. The VAC application deadline is 28 April 2026; the voter registration deadline is 20 April. At the 2024 local and mayoral elections, 22,749 VAC certificates were applied for, fewer than the 25,000 at the 2023 locals. The 20 April registration deadline was set alongside the 28 April VAC deadline , and the demographic most targeted by the Commission overlaps with the polling cohort driving Labour-Green parity .

An Electoral Commission survey names the access barrier attached to the 28 April photo-ID deadline. Five days to register, thirteen to apply. Read full version ↓