24 Days to Go: Both flanks fracture

YouGov published its first 2026 Holyrood MRP (fieldwork 23 March to 8 April, 3,925 respondents) projecting the SNP at 67 seats in 89% of simulations — a five-seat majority — with all 67 from constituencies and no regional list correction. Reform UK finished second on 20 seats; Labour third on 15 seats, all from regional lists. Conservative vote share sat at 8%, the lowest at any Scottish election.

Two independent MRP models projecting the same SNP majority consolidate the consensus that Scotland is heading for single-party government, with the Conservatives facing their first constituency wipeout since devolution. Read full version ↓

The Institute for Fiscal Studies published a cross-party summary concluding that none of Scotland's major parties has a credible fiscal plan: Scottish Labour's proposals exceed unallocated funding by £4.4 billion; the SNP overstates NHS consequentials by £1.6 billion; the Scottish Conservatives underestimate their NHS pledge by at least £600 million; and Reform UK's income tax cut would cost £2–3.7 billion per year with no self-funding evidence. The Fraser of Allander Institute separately confirmed Reform's Scottish plan is unaffordable.

A simultaneous fiscal rejection of every major Holyrood party creates a credibility vacuum that pivots the Scottish election towards non-fiscal questions, principally the SNP's independence offer. Read full version ↓

Zack Polanski launched the Green Party's local election campaign on 10 April in Deptford, south-east London, explicitly targeting Labour's flagship London councils: Islington, Lambeth, Hackney and Lewisham. Green membership has tripled to 220,000 since Polanski won the leadership in September 2025. PollCheck projected possible Green control of Hastings and Norwich councils.

The Green campaign moves from polling parity to a defined geographic offensive, targeting Labour's inner-London strongholds on a housing platform while projecting council control in two English towns. Read full version ↓

YouGov's Senedd MRP projected the Wales Green Party at 10 seats — the party's first ever Senedd representation. A Plaid-Green coalition would reach 53 seats, four above the 49-seat majority threshold. An alternative Plaid-Labour coalition would yield 55 seats.

The projection of 10 Green Senedd seats under Wales's new closed-list PR system creates a Plaid-Green majority route that bypasses Labour entirely, testing whether proportional representation produces coalition arithmetic that first past the post cannot. Read full version ↓

PollCheck projected Reform UK to take control of Essex (57 of 78 seats), Norfolk and Suffolk county councils — three of England's largest local authorities.

Reform UK is projected to run three of England's largest local authorities, but all three face LGR transitions, meaning the party would govern councils being abolished and replaced by unitaries. Read full version ↓

65 of the 677 Reform UK councillors elected in 2025 had quit, defected or been expelled by April 2026, per HuffPost UK. HOPE not hate described the party's candidate vetting as 'nil'. HuffPost separately reported that Reform's membership team cold-called Sam Webber, a sitting Bromley councillor for a rival party, five days before nominations closed, asking him to stand as a paper candidate.

A 9.6% attrition rate within a year of election, combined with paper-candidate cold-calling, exposes an organisational pipeline that cannot retain what it wins. Read full version ↓

The Electoral Commission confirmed it cannot verify Reform UK's Cryptocurrency donations because Reform has not provided wallet addresses. The processor, Radom Pay, operates from Poland outside FCA regulation, compounding transparency concerns about Christopher Harborne's £12 million in donations.

A regulatory gap leaves the UK's electoral watchdog unable to verify the provenance of Cryptocurrency donations to Britain's leading polling party, with the legislation designed to close it arriving after the election. Read full version ↓

Democracy Club's candidate database reached 99.97% coverage (3,073 of 3,074 areas) by 13 April 2026, up from 86% on 10 April, providing the complete candidate picture for the 7 May elections.

Complete candidate data across 3,073 of 3,074 areas enables cross-referencing of party slates, spending records and attrition patterns ahead of polling day. Read full version ↓

The Representation of the People Bill entered Commons committee stage on 18 March following Second Reading on 2 March. Committee reports are due by 23 April; Royal Assent cannot precede 7 May polling day.

The legislative timeline means the retrospective cryptocurrency donation ban and overseas elector cap will not apply to the 2026 elections, leaving the regulatory gap open through polling day. Read full version ↓

The SNP manifesto launch was scheduled for 16 April in Edinburgh Park, with independence as the lead commitment — the first major manifesto launch of the final campaign weeks.

The SNP launches its manifesto from a position of projected strength, with independence as the primary differentiator in a campaign where all fiscal arguments have been neutralised by the IFS. Read full version ↓

Welsh Labour launched its Senedd manifesto on 30 March with a £4 billion NHS investment programme, £2 bus fares, 100,000 new homes, and an income tax freeze.

Welsh Labour's manifesto competes directly with Plaid Cymru's domestic programme, but the YouGov MRP projects it as a junior coalition partner rather than a governing force, reframing the offer as a negotiating platform. Read full version ↓

The Voter registration deadline for the 7 May elections is 20 April, with a photo ID application (Voter Authority Certificate) deadline of 28 April. The Electoral Commission is targeting young voters, students and recent movers.

Post-deadline registration patterns will provide the first empirical signal of whether polling-level shifts in Green and Reform support translate into actual ballot-box participation. Read full version ↓