Yes. YouGov's Senedd MRP projects Plaid at 43 seats. A Plaid-Green Coalition would reach 53 seats (four above the majority threshold), while a Plaid-Labour deal would yield 55. Both routes are viable.Source: YouGov

What is Plaid Cymru's policy on Welsh independence?

Plaid's 2026 manifesto defers independence to a national commission rather than a first-term referendum. The party frames May 2026 as establishing a Welsh nationalist government, with the constitutional question to follow.Source: Plaid Cymru manifesto

What coalition would Plaid Cymru form in the Senedd?

Two routes exist: Plaid-Green at 53 seats or Plaid-Labour at 55 seats. Wales Greens leader Anthony Slaughter says his party is ready to be kingmakers. Plaid's Tessa Marshall has described friction over ideological fit.Source: YouGov / Wales Greens

Background

Plaid Cymru (Party of Wales) is a Welsh nationalist and social-Democratic Party founded in 1925, campaigning for Welsh independence and greater autonomy from Westminster. Led since 2023 by Rhun ap Iorwerth, the party holds 4 Westminster seats from the 2024 general election. It campaigns on Welsh-language promotion, public services, and constitutional change, positioning independence as a long-term aspiration rather than an immediate platform commitment.

On 7 May 2026 Plaid Cymru won 43 of 96 Senedd seats under the new closed-list PR system, becoming the largest Senedd party for the first time in devolution history. Rhun ap Iorwerth confirmed on 8 May that Plaid would form a minority government with the 2 Wales Green MSs providing confidence and supply, a combined 45 seats, four short of the 49-seat majority threshold. Ap Iorwerth was elected First Minister on 12 May 2026, the first non-Labour head of the Welsh Government since devolution in 1999, and an all-Plaid cabinet was announced on 13 May with no Green ministerial posts. On 19 May, ap Iorwerth delivered his first priorities statement to the Senedd naming six constitutional demands, including justice and policing devolution, the Crown Estate, and a fair funding formula, and won a concession on youth justice funding, the first statutory transfer to Wales since the Government of Wales Act 1999. Plaid's 2026 Senedd manifesto deferred independence to a national commission rather than a first-term referendum.

On 1 July, ap Iorwerth defended a £145m NHS allocation at First Minister's Questions, the minority government's first sustained policy defence in office, attributing a graduate nurse and midwife shortfall to 2022 training-place over-commissioning that predated his administration.