The IRGC announced its 48th wave of Operation True Promise 4 on Saturday — roughly three attack waves per day since the war began on 28 February. Qatar absorbed 4 ballistic missiles and several drones, all intercepted. Saudi Arabia intercepted and destroyed 6 drones1. Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi called on neighbouring states to "expel foreign aggressors"2.
The wave count is itself a measure of operational capacity. Defence Secretary Hegseth claimed on 12 March that Iran's missile volume was down 90% and drone launches down 95%. The IRGC's ability to sustain three waves daily across multiple countries sits uneasily with those figures — unless the pre-war baseline was far larger than US intelligence estimated, or the remaining inventory is being allocated with greater discipline than before.
Araghchi's demand follows a chain of command that bypasses Iran's civilian government entirely. Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf publicly reversed President Pezeshkian's 7 March order to halt Gulf strikes, declaring nations hosting US bases remained legitimate targets3. The IRGC has treated that position as operational doctrine since. Qatar, which hosts Al Udeid Air Base — the forward headquarters of US Central Command and the nerve centre of the air campaign — absorbs Iranian missiles while simultaneously housing the command structure directing strikes on Iran.
That contradiction has grown sharp enough for Hamas to publicly ask Tehran to stop hitting Gulf neighbours (Event 6). Saudi Arabia's interception of all six drones adds to a cumulative Gulf air defence tally exceeding 3,100 Iranian missiles and drones intercepted since 28 February. Interception rates have held. But the interceptor supply chain — Patriots, THAADs, and now 10,000 Merops drones diverted from Ukraine (Event 7) — is being consumed at rates no Gulf military has publicly disclosed.
