Brent Crude peaked at $126 per barrel this week before settling around $114 — a 70% increase over the pre-war price of $67.41. The trajectory has been unbroken: $100.21 on 16 March, $108.65 three days later after Netanyahu claimed Israel was helping reopen Hormuz, $112.19 by Thursday, and now a new spot high. Bloomberg had already reported a record $14.20-per-barrel backwardation — the premium buyers pay for immediate physical delivery over next-month futures — meaning refiners were effectively paying $126 or more for delivered crude before the headline price caught up.
The International Energy Agency's March report documented the cause: global output down 8 million barrels per day, Gulf production curtailed by at least 10 million bpd including condensates — the largest supply disruption in the agency's history1. IEA member states responded with a 400 million barrel coordinated drawdown from strategic petroleum reserves, the largest ever. That volume covers roughly four days of global consumption. The IEA called it "a stop-gap measure" without swift conflict resolution2. The IRGC's toll system at Hormuz — 89 to 90 vessels transited under Iranian clearance in the first half of March, at fees up to $2 million per passage — has replaced a military blockade with selective commercial control, but it has not restored the volume that moved freely before 28 February3.
The supply-side interventions the Trump administration has attempted have not altered the price curve. The Treasury's waiver on 140 million barrels of sanctioned Iranian crude already on tankers equals 1.5 days of global consumption. The Venezuela authorisation and 60-day Jones Act waiver address distribution, not the underlying shortfall. Charter rates have quadrupled to $800,000 per day, and war-risk premiums on very large crude carriers run between $3.6 million and $6 million per voyage4. These costs compound through the supply chain before reaching consumers.
The distance to the next threshold is shrinking. Daan Struyven, Goldman Sachs's head of oil research, warned earlier this week that Brent could exceed its 2008 all-time intraday record of $147.50 if Hormuz flows remain depressed for 60 days. Ann-Louise Hittle of Wood Mackenzie forecast $150 "soon," with $200 "not outside the realms of possibility". Oxford Economics assessed that $140 per barrel triggers a mild global recession at negative 0.7% GDP5. At the current rate of increase — roughly $6 per barrel per week since the war began — that threshold arrives in late April without a change in supply conditions.
