Skip to content
Briefings are running a touch slower this week while we rebuild the foundations.See roadmap
Iran Conflict 2026
21MAR

Goldman: Brent could break 2008 record

3 min read
07:22UTC

Goldman Sachs warned Brent crude could surpass its 2008 all-time record of $147.50 within two months if Hormuz flows stay depressed. Refiners are already paying $126 per barrel on the spot market — the futures price hides the real cost.

← Back to Trump floats wind-down, deploys 2,200 moreJump to analysis ↓
ConflictAssessed
Key takeaway

Goldman's $147.50 scenario is a floor, not a ceiling, if supply destruction rather than demand drives this spike.

Daan Struyven, Goldman Sachs's head of oil research, warned that Brent Crude could exceed its 2008 all-time intraday record of $147.50 if flows through the strait of Hormuz remain depressed for 60 days 1. Brent closed Thursday at $112.19, 66% above the pre-war $67.41 — but the headline understates what buyers actually pay. Bloomberg reported a record $14.20-per-barrel premium on spot physical barrels over next-month futures 2, the widest backwardation on record. Refiners are paying an effective $126 or more for delivered crude.

Struyven's 60-day threshold — roughly late May — aligns with disclosed military timelines. IDF Brig. Gen. Effie Defrin told CNN the air force has plans "through at least Passover" in mid-April with "deeper plans for even three weeks beyond that" . If the war runs to that horizon, Hormuz stays constrained for precisely the period Goldman identifies. Other named analysts — Ann-Louise Hittle of Wood Mackenzie, Vandana Hari of Vanda Insights, Adi Imsirovic of Oxford — have each warned of $150–$200 oil over the past week ; Chatham House forecast $130 Brent and Eurozone contraction if the conflict lasts months . Goldman puts a number on the clock: 60 days.

The supply picture worsened the same day. Iraq declared Force majeure on all foreign-operated oilfields, unable to export through Hormuz, with storage at capacity and production cuts ordered. The US Treasury responded by lifting sanctions on 140 million barrels of Iranian crude already on tankers — roughly 1.5 days of global consumption. Three weeks ago crude futures were in contango, a structure reflecting expectations of plentiful future supply. The curve has since inverted to record backwardation — a market pricing physical shortages that deepen, not resolve.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

Goldman Sachs is warning that oil could reach the highest price ever recorded — a level last seen during the 2008 financial crisis. But 2008's peak was caused by high demand and corrected itself when demand collapsed in the recession. This crisis is caused by supply being physically cut off. Supply does not self-correct the way demand does. There is no automatic market mechanism that brings prices back down unless the conflict ends or the world economy slows enough to reduce consumption — and both take time. Goldman's $147.50 figure should be understood as a price the market may pass through on the way higher, not a ceiling it would naturally bounce off.

Deep Analysis
Synthesis

The structural difference from 2008 means the typical correction mechanism — demand destruction triggering a price collapse — would in this case require a global recession severe enough to offset the physical supply destruction. This sets a much higher sustained price floor than analysts calibrated to demand-cycle models are likely pricing. The Goldman forecast deserves to be read as a conservative scenario, not an extreme one.

Escalation

The 60-day Hormuz disruption threshold Goldman cites as the $147 trigger is rapidly approaching. If hostilities commenced in late February, the 60-day mark falls in late April — coinciding precisely with the expiry of the Treasury's sanctions waiver on 19 April. Market and policy pressure converge at the same moment, with no buffer mechanism currently in place.

What could happen next?
  • Risk

    If Hormuz disruption extends past 60 days, Goldman's $147.50 scenario becomes the base case rather than a tail risk.

    Short term · Suggested
  • Consequence

    At $147+ Brent, airline capacity cuts and petrochemical facility closures shift from speculative outcomes to probable ones.

    Medium term · Suggested
  • Risk

    Oil-importing emerging market economies face sovereign debt stress as surging import costs and dollar strength compound simultaneously.

    Medium term · Suggested
  • Opportunity

    A sustained spike above $147 would accelerate EV adoption and renewable energy investment faster than any policy framework has yet achieved.

    Long term · Suggested
Sources:Business Standard
Mentions:Daan Struyven →Goldman Sachs →Time →Bloomberg →Chatham House →China →Force majeure →Eurozone →Brent Crude →Vandana Hari →Effie Defrin →Israel Defense Forces (IDF) →Strait of Hormuz →US Treasury →Ann-Louise Hittle →Vanda Insights →Adi Imsirovic →Wood Mackenzie →
First Reported In

Update #43 · Trump floats wind-down, deploys 2,200 more

Business Standard· 21 Mar 2026
Read original →
Different Perspectives
IAEA
IAEA
Director General Rafael Grossi appeared in person at the UNSC on 19 May and warned that a direct hit on an operating reactor 'could result in very high release of radioactivity'. The session produced a condemnation record but no resolution, and the Barakah perimeter was already struck on 17 May.
Hengaw (Kurdish rights monitor)
Hengaw (Kurdish rights monitor)
Hengaw documented three judicial executions and the detention of Kurdish writer Majid Karimi in Tehran on 19 May, establishing Khorasan Razavi province as the newest geography in Iran's wartime judicial record. The organisation's Norway-based operation continues to surface a domestic repression track running in parallel with every diplomatic and military development.
India
India
Six India-flagged vessels conducted a coordinated cluster transit under PGSA bilateral assurances during the 17 May window, paying no yuan tolls. New Delhi's inclusion in Iran's state-to-state passage track insulates Indian energy supply without requiring endorsement of the PGSA's yuan-toll architecture or alignment with the US coalition.
Pakistan
Pakistan
Pakistan is the only functioning diplomatic bridge between Tehran and Washington. Its role is relay, not mediation in the settlement sense: it conveyed Iran's 10-point counter-MOU in early May, relayed the US rejection, and is now passing 'corrective points' in the third documented exchange of this sub-cycle without either side working from a shared text.
UK and France (Northwood coalition)
UK and France (Northwood coalition)
Twenty-six coalition members have published no rules of engagement eight days after the Bahrain joint statement; Lloyd's underwriters have conditioned war-risk reopening on written ROE from either Iran or the coalition. Italian and French mine-countermeasures deployments are operating on the in-water clearance task CENTCOM Admiral Brad Cooper's 90% mine-stockpile claim does not address.
Saudi Arabia
Saudi Arabia
Riyadh has not publicly commented on the Barakah strike or the 50-47 discharge vote. Saudi output feeds the IEA's $106 base case; the $5 Brent premium above that model reflects institutional uncertainty no Gulf producer can compress through supply adjustment alone.