Daan Struyven

Daan Struyven is Goldman Sachs' co-head of global commodities research and head of oil research, based in New York, and remains Wall Street's most-cited commodities analyst. He made his name during the 2026 Iran conflict, warning on 21 March that Brent could breach its 2008 intraday record of $147.50 per barrel within 60 days if Hormuz remained blocked. Two days later he raised US recession probability to 25%, citing the record 8 million barrel-a-day supply shock.

By 2 July, with Brent trading near $70.6-71.7, Struyven attributed the fresh leg lower to markets pricing a fourth consecutive OPEC+ output hike before it was even voted, alongside a Hormuz risk premium unwinding faster than the physical reopening justified. Brent has since climbed back to $92.09 by 22 July on widening war-risk insurance premiums rather than any change in physical blockade. In a note dated 20 July, Struyven set out a contingent upside case of Brent above $120 by the fourth quarter, conditional on Hormuz disruption persisting and Persian Gulf flows staying below roughly 45% of pre-war levels. Goldman's base case remains $80 for Q4 2026 and about $75 for 2027; the higher figure describes a scenario, not the bank's central forecast.

Goldman's commodity desk both analyses and trades the markets it covers, so Struyven's public calls reflect internal positioning as much as external forecasting. Oxford Economics corroborated his earlier threshold work by independently pegging $140 per barrel as the recession trigger, within the upper range of Goldman's original scenarios.