Daan Struyven

Daan Struyven is Goldman Sachs' co-head of global commodities research and head of oil research, based in New York, and remains Wall Street's most-cited commodities analyst. He made his name during the 2026 Iran conflict, warning on 21 March that Brent could breach its 2008 intraday record of $147.50 per barrel within 60 days if Hormuz remained blocked. Two days later he raised US recession probability to 25%, citing the record 8 million barrel-a-day supply shock.

By 2 July, with Brent trading near $70.6-71.7 and well below his Q3 severe-case scenario of $120, Struyven attributed the fresh leg lower to markets pricing a fourth consecutive OPEC+ output hike before it was even voted, alongside a Hormuz risk premium unwinding faster than the physical reopening justified. He separately read the WTI managed-money net long's rebuild to +82,872 contracts as short-covering sentiment recovery rather than fresh bullish conviction.

Goldman's commodity desk both analyses and trades the markets it covers, so Struyven's public calls reflect internal positioning as much as external forecasting. Oxford Economics corroborated his earlier threshold work by independently pegging $140 per barrel as the recession trigger, within the upper range of Goldman's original scenarios.