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Iran Conflict 2026
12AUG

Radio warnings close a second strait

3 min read
14:52UTC

Yahya Sarea declared Bab al-Mandab shut to Saudi shipping on Monday. Six vessels, among them the Chinese supertanker Xin Long Yang, had turned round inside 48 hours without a shot fired.

ConflictDeveloping
Key takeaway

A radio broadcast closed Bab al-Mandab to Saudi shipping inside 48 hours, with no shot fired.

Yahya Sarea, military spokesman for Yemen's Houthis, announced a full maritime embargo on Saudi Arabia on Monday 20 July, effective immediately 1. Houthi forces began hailing vessels on open maritime frequencies near Yemen the same day, telling them the Bab al-Mandab was closed to Saudi traffic 2.

Bab al-Mandab is the strait between Yemen and Djibouti where the Red Sea meets The Gulf of Aden, and roughly a quarter of global container traffic passes through it. Six vessels had reversed course by Tuesday 21 July, according to Lloyd's List ship-tracking data. Among them was the Chinese Very Large Crude Carrier Xin Long Yang, which turned in the Red Sea rather than continue towards a Saudi port 3.

Houthi forces fired nothing, boarded nothing and stopped nothing. Rear Admiral Vasileios Gryparis commands Operation Aspides, the European Union's naval protection mission in the Red Sea. He said the Houthis "remain a threat to navigation despite not having attacked any merchant vessels since September 2025" 4. Holding the Strait of Hormuz shut has cost a great deal more: a naval blockade, Marine boarding parties putting armed personnel on foreign decks , and eleven consecutive nights of bombing.

Sarea framed the embargo as retaliation for Saudi Arabia's blockade of Yemeni ports and a Saudi strike on Sanaa airport. The Houthis say that strike was aimed at an Iranian aircraft carrying their leadership home from Ali Khamenei's funeral 5. Saudi Arabia's foreign ministry called the declaration false and a distraction from the group's "economic mismanagement and public discontent", and said The Kingdom would take "all necessary measures" to protect its ships 6.

Whether the six turnbacks answer the radio calls, the owners' own risk desks or both cannot be separated out from tracking data alone. No war-risk premium specific to Saudi-bound traffic has yet been established either. What can be said is that the traffic changed course within two days of a broadcast, and that nobody had to sail a warship to make it happen.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

The Houthis are an armed group that controls large parts of Yemen. On Monday they announced they would stop Saudi-bound ships from passing through the Bab al-Mandab strait, a narrow sea gap near Yemen that a huge share of world shipping uses to reach the Suez Canal. They have not fired on or boarded any ship. Instead, Houthi forces have been radioing vessels over open radio channels and warning them to turn back. Six ships did, including the Chinese supertanker Xin Long Yang. No vessel has been attacked, boarded or stopped. Shipping companies are cautious because insurance for sailing through this region has already become far more expensive during the wider war, so a warning alone is often enough to make a captain choose the longer, safer route.

Deep Analysis
Root Causes

Rerouting on a radio warning only works because the insurance market had already primed shipowners to treat any new threat as decisive. War-risk premiums for the region were running at 3-10% of hull value before this declaration, against roughly 0.25% before the war, according to Lloyd's List reporting; the Lloyd's Market Association has said capacity technically remains available and it is price and crew willingness, not a shortage of cover, that is doing the suppressing.

That pre-existing cost structure means a six-figure premium swing, not a missile, is enough to turn a tanker around; the Houthis are exploiting a market that was already primed to divert rather than demonstrating new military reach.

What could happen next?
  • Risk

    If the Houthis follow the 2023 Galaxy Leader precedent and escalate from radio warnings to an actual boarding or strike, war-risk premiums for the wider Red Sea corridor would likely reprice sharply, compounding the existing Hormuz premium.

  • Precedent

    A second chokepoint closed by declaration rather than force lowers the bar for further non-kinetic threats against shipping elsewhere in the region.

First Reported In

Update #159 · A second strait closes by radio alone

The War Zone· 22 Jul 2026
Read original
Different Perspectives
Anwar Gargash, UAE presidential diplomatic adviser
Anwar Gargash, UAE presidential diplomatic adviser
Gargash warned the region cannot stay trapped between "neither war nor peace", naming the stalemate itself as unsustainable for a Gulf state hosting US forces and absorbing the shipping-risk cost without being party to either the strike decisions or the corridor talks.
Shipping and insurance underwriters
Shipping and insurance underwriters
War-risk premiums are still set against an active blockade and a fatal Bab el-Mandeb attack with an unresolved vessel identity. A disabling strike and a diplomatic "advanced" claim pulling in opposite directions gives underwriters no single signal to reprice cover against.
Pakistan and Qatar (Oman corridor mediators)
Pakistan and Qatar (Oman corridor mediators)
Pakistan's defence minister said matters are "shaping up in favor of peace" on Hormuz and a Qatari spokesperson called the Iran-Oman reopening talks advanced. Both are publicly ahead of Tehran's own security council, which has just disowned the deal's significance.
United States Central Command / President Trump
United States Central Command / President Trump
CENTCOM confirmed a helicopter strike disabled a container ship that tried to evade the blockade, and Trump said the US "totally controls" the Strait of Hormuz. Washington is treating evasion of the blockade as grounds for disabling fire rather than the redirection tactic CENTCOM used through July.
Mohsen Rezaei, Iran's Supreme National Security Council
Mohsen Rezaei, Iran's Supreme National Security Council
Rezaei told China's ambassador Hormuz reopens only when the US ends the war and unblocks Iran's funds, and that the Oman transit deal "will have no impact" on that decision. He is drawing a hard line between the technical corridor track and the political settlement his council controls.
Yemen's internationally recognised government and affected communities
Yemen's internationally recognised government and affected communities
SABA reported at least 17 soldiers killed at Saudi-backed camps in eastern Yemen as tanker use of Bab el-Mandeb fell. The fighting adds civilian and supply risks to a route ships use when Hormuz is unsafe.