25MAY

Pakistan mediation live, unwritten and only partial

3 min read

13:55UTC

Esmail Baghaei confirmed on 20 May that Pakistan has relayed a fresh round of corrective points between Tehran and Washington; Tasnim's parallel oil-sanctions waiver claim has no US-side corroboration.

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Key takeaway

Pakistan is relaying corrective points between Tehran and Washington, yet neither side has produced a signed counter-text.

Esmail Baghaei, the Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman, confirmed on 20 May 2026 that the Pakistan-mediated channel remains active ¹. "We received a set of corrective points and considerations from the Pakistani mediator," Baghaei said. "Our points of view were presented to the American side in return. Therefore, the process continues through Pakistan."

Baghaei's confirmation marks the third documented exchange in the sub-cycle. Iran transmitted a 10-point counter-MOU on 10 May; Donald Trump rejected it on Truth Social as "totally unacceptable"; Pakistan has now relayed a fresh round of corrective points in return. Neither side is working from a shared text; both are annotating each other's positions.

Tasnim also reported on 18 May that the US had agreed in a new text to suspend oil sanctions during the negotiation period. The claim cites an anonymous source close to Iran's negotiating team and has no US-side corroboration: no executive order on 19-20 May, no OFAC general licence, no Federal Register entry, no White House action covered the zero-instrument count across 16-18 May; the 19-20 window extends the streak). The OFAC SDN round on 19 May targeted vessels and shells , not a sanction suspension. The Senate's procedural discharge of the Kaine resolution deadline) opened the political vulnerability the verbal track has not yet answered with paper.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

Pakistan is acting as a go-between in the US-Iran negotiations. Iran talks to Pakistan, Pakistan tells the US, the US responds, Pakistan tells Iran. The two sides have never met face-to-face. On 20 May, Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesman confirmed this channel is still working: Pakistan has delivered a new set of suggested changes from the US side. Iran has sent its own response back. But neither side has yet agreed on a shared document they are both working towards. Iran's state news agency also claimed the US has agreed to pause oil sanctions during negotiations. As of 20 May, no US official has confirmed this and no document to that effect has appeared.

Deep Analysis

Root Causes

Pakistan mediates because it is one of the few states with simultaneous institutional credibility in Washington (military-to-military ties, CENTCOM interoperability) and Tehran (border relationship, Baloch population, energy imports from Iran). Field Marshal Munir's personal credibility with both IRGC leadership and the Trump administration's senior military figures gives him a contact network no career diplomat could replicate.

The channel's structural limitation is that Pakistan cannot bridge the gap between Iran's demand for domestic uranium stockpile dilution (rather than transfer) and the US demand for physical removal outside Iran. That is a technical nuclear-verification problem, not a diplomatic communication problem; no intermediary can resolve it without an IAEA inspection regime, which Iran's Majlis voted 221-0 to suspend.

What could happen next?

Risk
The Tasnim oil-sanctions waiver claim, if false, sets Iranian domestic expectations that the US will not meet; a public US denial of the claim would damage the channel's credibility faster than any formal breakdown.
Immediate · 0.7
Consequence
Three sub-cycle exchanges since 10 May without converging on shared text means the gap is structural (document count, framework) rather than positional (terms within a shared document); a fourth exchange in the same format is unlikely to resolve it.
Short term · 0.75
Opportunity
Pakistan's Asim Munir secured Iran's in-principle nuclear-monitoring concession in April through informal assurances outside the written text. A similar informal side-agreement on sanctions modalities may be where the real settlement lies, with formal documents following later.
Medium term · 0.55

Source Landscape

This story draws on mixed-leaning sources from Iran

Iran

LeftRight

Primary parallel: The Algiers Accords of 19 January 1981 ended the Iran hostage crisis after 15 months of indirect US-Iran negotiation mediated entirely by Algeria, which relayed documents between Washington and Tehran without the parties ever meeting face-to-face.

The Algerians were instructed not to bridge the gap but to translate positions accurately; the resolution came when both sides simultaneously accepted a text they had each individually modified. The Pakistan channel in 2026 follows the same structural pattern.

Counter-parallel: During the 2003 'Grand Bargain' attempt, Iran transmitted a comprehensive proposal to Washington through Swiss intermediaries offering to end support for Hamas and Hezbollah, accept the Arab Peace Initiative, and cooperate on nuclear transparency. The State Department never formally responded; the intermediary channel atrophied. The 2026 Pakistan channel has produced more exchanges than the 2003 Swiss attempt, but neither side has yet accepted a shared document.

Consensus view: IISS's Emile Hokayem and International Crisis Group's Ali Vaez assess the third sub-cycle exchange as evidence that Pakistan's mediation has become a mail relay rather than a bridging function. Both parties are annotating each other's positions rather than converging on shared text; the 10-point versus 14-point document count gap (Iran's counter vs the US MOU) means they are working from different frameworks, not different positions on the same framework.

Counter-view: Islamabad-based Strategic Vision Institute's Zafar Khan argues Pakistan's role has already exceeded its declared mandate: Field Marshal Asim Munir extracted Iran's first in-principle nuclear-monitoring concession in April, a structural commitment that did not appear in any of the subsequent written exchanges. The Pakistan channel may be producing substantive progress on informal assurances that the published text count does not capture.

Key tension: Whether the Tasnim-reported US oil-sanctions waiver reflects a real informal understanding transmitted via Pakistan that neither side is prepared to put in writing, or whether it is Iranian state media positioning for domestic audience management ahead of the WPR floor vote.

First Reported In

Update #103 · Senate 50-47; UNSC at Barakah; no US paper

Tasnim News Agency / IRNA· 20 May 2026

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Causes and effects

Caused by

Trump signed nothing on Iran across Day 80

The zero US executive instruments across 16-18 May extended the streak that Baghaei's 20 May confirmation of continuing Pakistan mediation operates alongside.

Occurred 18 May 2026

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Senate 50-47 discharges Kaine Iran resolution to floor

The 50-47 Senate discharge vote heightened the political pressure on the Pakistan mediation channel to produce a signed text before 1 June.

Occurred 19 May 2026

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This Event

Pakistan mediation live, unwritten and only partial

Third documented exchange in the sub-cycle since Iran's 10-point counter-MOU on 10 May; neither side is working from a shared text, and the White House has signed no Iran instrument across the 19-20 May window.

Led to

Naqvi flies to Tehran with corrective points

Baghaei's 20 May confirmation that Pakistan relayed corrective points directly follows Naqvi's 18-19 May Tehran visit

Occurred 18 May 2026

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Munir returns to Tehran two days on

Pakistan's confirmed active mediation role (ID:3479) is the framework within which Munir's second Tehran visit operates.

Occurred 23 May 2026

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Different Perspectives

Lloyd's of London

The Joint War Committee left Hormuz war-risk premiums at $10-14 million per voyage on 25 May, declining to move on Brent's 5% fall. The JWC's protocol requires a UN Security Council resolution or bilateral government certification letter before de-listing, and neither has arrived: a verbal understanding does not satisfy the formal condition the reinsurance market's treaty terms require.

Gulf Arab producers

Saudi Arabia and UAE depend on Hormuz for their own crude exports; Aramco CEO Nasser has warned no oil market recovery arrives until 2027 if the blockade continues past mid-June. Monday's $98.96 Brent settlement shortens nothing for Gulf producers without a signed instrument and a Pentagon mine-clearance timeline that runs up to six months post-ceasefire.

Qatar

Qatar holds $12bn of frozen Iranian assets at the centre of the sequencing dispute but cannot release them without explicit US Treasury authorisation, given the original freeze was a US instrument. As the asset-holding state, Qatar's leverage is real but passive: it is the escrow holder, not the decision-maker, and any resolution requires US Treasury sign-off that Trump has withheld.

Pakistan

With both Prime Minister Sharif and army chief Munir simultaneously in Beijing on 25 May, Pakistan has for the first time consolidated its civilian and military mediation tracks under China's roof. Munir's direct Tehran-to-Beijing flight signals that the security and financial threads of the sequencing problem are now being worked in parallel rather than sequentially.

China

Beijing hosted Pakistan's principal mediators and Iran's China envoy Ghalibaf simultaneously on 25 May while its banking regulator capped new state-bank lending to five sanctioned refiners. China is simultaneously the most credible third-party underwriter of the $12bn sequencing and the state whose institutions face live OFAC secondary-sanctions exposure if the deadlock persists through GL V's expiry.

United States

Trump posted on 24 May that the blockade holds until a deal is certified and signed, ruling out the informal MOU structure both sides had been building. The 'certified, and signed' condition is the first operational bar Trump has attached in 87 days, but it arrived without an executive instrument, maintaining the gap between posted ultimatum and signed US policy.