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IISS
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IISS

London think tank publishing the annual Military Balance; the primary open-source defence data benchmark globally.

Russian FSB-linked hackers styled fake event invitations as coming from the IISS and other think tanks, Microsoft reported on 29 September 2026, in campaigns aimed at more than 100 organisations in the US and UK.

Last refreshed: 12 October 2026 · Appears in 2 active topics

Key Question

Why do governments, markets, and journalists treat IISS Military Balance data as near-authoritative?

Timeline for IISS

#14 29 Sept

Star Blizzard lures think tanks by invite

Cybersecurity: Threats and Defences
#7 16 Jul
View full timeline →

Background

The International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) is an Independent strategic-studies institute founded in London in 1958. It has offices in London, Washington, Manama, Singapore and Berlin. Its best-known work is The Military Balance, an annual reference on armed forces, defence spending and equipment inventories. It also publishes Strategic Survey, the Adelphi Papers and the peer-reviewed journal Survival, and hosts the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore and the Manama Dialogue in Bahrain.

Its value lies in comparative defence data and analysis published outside government classification. That gives policymakers, journalists and researchers a common public baseline, and its analysts have been cited on questions from Hormuz transit fees to Britain's planned uncrewed warships. Through the 2026 Iran war its assessments ran from a March warning that the conflict risked becoming a battle of endurance, to an April Survival paper judging that all three combatants would likely claim victory while ending strategically worse off, to a July view that no military option could reopen Hormuz.

That standing also makes its name useful to others. Microsoft reported on 29 September 2026 that Star Blizzard, a group it ties to Russia's FSB, sent phishing lures styled as event invitations from bodies including the IISS.

Common Questions
How does IISS differ from RUSI or Chatham House?
IISS focuses on quantitative military data and strategic studies, producing the Military Balance as its core product. RUSI (Royal United Services Institute) has a broader defence and security policy REMIT with more UK-government operational links. Chatham House focuses on international affairs and Foreign Policy with less emphasis on hard military data. IISS's niche is the data-heavy force-structure analysis that the others do not systematically produce.Source: Lowdown background
Who runs the IISS and is it independent?
IISS is governed as an Independent registered charity. Its Director-General since 2022 is Bastian Giegerich, a former Bundeswehr officer and academic. It is not affiliated with any government, though it receives some government and defence-industry funding alongside charitable support and publication revenues.Source: Lowdown background
How does IISS methodology compare to official government defence estimates?
IISS publishes its Military Balance data under a transparent, citable methodology, making it the default reference for parliamentary testimony and NATO planning. Official government figures often remain classified; IISS provides the closest unclassified proxy.Source: IISS
What is the Shangri-La Dialogue and who organises it?
The Shangri-La Dialogue is an annual Asia-Pacific security summit held in Singapore, organised by IISS. It brings together defence ministers and senior military officials from across the Asia-Pacific region and beyond.Source: IISS
Who runs the IISS and where is it based?
IISS is led by Director-General Bastian Giegerich, a former Bundeswehr officer. It is headquartered in London with offices in Washington DC, Manama, Singapore, and Berlin.Source: IISS
How did IISS assess Arrow-3 depletion during the Iran conflict?
IISS analysis concluded that Arrow-3 stocks were approximately 81.33% depleted by 26 March 2026, making it the most cited Independent estimate of Israel's air-defence crisis during the Iran war.Source: IISS
What does the IISS Military Balance actually count?
The Military Balance documents armed forces, defence budgets, and equipment inventories for over 170 countries, using a standardised methodology updated annually. It counts active personnel, reserve forces, and specific weapon system quantities by country.Source: IISS
What is IISS?
The International Institute for Strategic Studies is an independent London-based think tank specialising in political-military conflict, geopolitics, and defence economics. It publishes The Military Balance annually and hosts the Shangri-La Dialogue.
What does the IISS say about Iran's military capability?
IISS assessments have documented CENTCOM destroying 8,000 targets and 130 Iranian warships in 22 days, and Iran's intermediate-range ballistic missiles reaching Diego Garcia and threatening European capitals.Source: Lowdown
What is the Shangri-La Dialogue?
The Shangri-La Dialogue is an annual Track 1.5 Asia-Pacific security summit held in Singapore, convened and organised by IISS. Defence ministers and service chiefs from across the region attend alongside strategic-studies experts. It is the leading forum for public-record diplomatic and defence exchanges between Asia-Pacific and Western defence establishments.Source: Lowdown background
Source Material