Skip to content
Briefings are running a touch slower this week while we rebuild the foundations.See roadmap
European Tech Sovereignty
3JUN

Sharif, Munir and Xi meet in Beijing

3 min read
10:43UTC

Pakistan's prime minister and army chief were in Beijing together on Monday, meeting Xi Jinping as the Iran deal nears its sequencing decision. The two principal mediators are coordinating with China face to face for the first time.

TechnologyDeveloping
Key takeaway

The mediation has consolidated in the one capital that can underwrite a frozen-asset release.

Pakistani prime minister Shehbaz Sharif met Xi Jinping in Beijing on Monday 25 May, day three of a four-day state visit, with army chief Asim Munir also in the Chinese capital 1. Munir had flown to Beijing straight from Tehran, which he visited on 23 May , while Sharif and his foreign minister arrived in China on the same Saturday .

Pakistan has run as the principal back-channel between Washington and Tehran through the war. For the first time both of its principals are in Beijing at once, coordinating with China in person rather than through relayed messages, and on the days the deal sits at its closest. Munir's shuttle from Tehran on 23 May to Beijing by 25 May collapses two mediation tracks into a single room.

The venue matters more than the photographs. China holds the tools the sequencing deadlock needs a third party to provide: frozen-fund mechanics, yuan settlement, and the standing to vouch for who pays whom and when. Beijing also already hosts Iran's designated China envoy, speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, appointed in late April with sign-off from both President Masoud Pezeshkian and Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei , so the Iranian contact is already in the city.

A joint Pakistan-China statement is expected by 27 May, its content still undisclosed. Whether it names a mechanism for escrowing the frozen assets against a reopening of the strait, or leaves that clause untouched, will matter more than anything in the visit's choreography.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

Pakistan has been acting as the go-between in talks to end the war between the United States and Iran. On 25 May, both Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and its army chief Asim Munir were in Beijing at the same time, meeting Chinese President Xi Jinping. Munir had flown there directly from Tehran, which he visited on 23 May. Iran's own special envoy to China was also in Beijing. This is the first time all the main mediators have gathered in the same city at once. China matters here because it is Iran's biggest oil customer, and it may be the only country that could help resolve the argument over the $12 billion in frozen money that Iran wants released before reopening the strait.

Deep Analysis
Root Causes

Pakistan's role as the principal back-channel emerged from three structural conditions: a 959-kilometre shared border with Iran, a general-officer-led military intelligence relationship with both Washington and Tehran, and the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) financial dependency that gives Pakistan unique access to Chinese credit facilities.

Asim Munir's ability to fly Tehran-to-Beijing without a 24-hour public announcement reflects the operational security of the military-to-military channel, which has carried every nuclear-monitoring concession of the war.

The simultaneous presence of both Sharif (civilian, economic track) and Munir (military, security track) in Beijing signals that the Pakistan side has concluded the $12bn sequencing problem requires both tracks resolved in parallel, not sequentially.

What could happen next?
  • Consequence

    The joint Pakistan-China statement expected by 27 May will indicate whether China is prepared to act as guarantor for the $12bn sequencing mechanism, or merely as a diplomatic host.

  • Opportunity

    If China agrees to route the $12bn release through its state banking system rather than a US Treasury channel, it bypasses the US re-freeze risk Iran has demanded protection against, potentially unlocking the sequencing deadlock.

First Reported In

Update #107 · Two markets, two prices on one Iran deal

Pakistan Today· 25 May 2026
Read original
Different Perspectives
European Central Bank
European Central Bank
The ECB's digital euro pilot drew more than 50 PSP applications and is naming 10 to 30 participants in July, advancing on its own monetary mandate without requiring a Commission act. Its trajectory this week is the inverse of CAIDA's: the sovereignty instrument that restricts no US firm is the only one keeping its published calendar.
United States (Ambassador Andrew Puzder / Steptoe LLP)
United States (Ambassador Andrew Puzder / Steptoe LLP)
Puzder named CAIDA a red line inconsistent with the EU-US trade framework on 25 May; Steptoe warns US firms spend up to USD 50bn a year on DMA and DSA compliance and that CAIDA's Buy European tilt threatens the Turnberry truce. The Google fine delay is read in Washington as evidence that Commission enforcement bends to diplomatic pressure.
France (G7 chair and Mistral AI)
France (G7 chair and Mistral AI)
France chaired the 29 May G7 Bercy ministerial and produced a communique that omitted cloud sovereignty entirely, while its national AI champion Mistral won five-year Airbus and BMW engineering contracts commercially the day before. Paris is advancing sovereignty through the market and retreating on it at every multilateral table.
Germany (federal government)
Germany (federal government)
Berlin maintained College silence that forced CAIDA's scope to public-sector tenders, protecting the automotive sector from a US Section 301 claim while simultaneously allowing BMW to contract Mistral for safety-critical crash-simulation work. German corporate procurement and German trade policy are running in opposite directions.
Netherlands (minister Willemijn Aerdts)
Netherlands (minister Willemijn Aerdts)
Aerdts blocked Kyndryl's EUR 100m Solvinity acquisition on 26 May, the first US deal ever stopped under Dutch screening, on the specific ground that the US CLOUD Act could compel disclosure of DigiD and MijnOverheid data. The decision is a direct demonstration that national screening achieves CAIDA's public-sector objective without waiting for EU law.
European Commission
European Commission
The Commission is presenting CAIDA adoption on its fourth scheduled date as a sovereignty milestone, with Henna Virkkunen due to brief the Telecom Council on 9 June. The narrowed public-sector-only scope is the concession written in to secure adoption; whether the Commission presents it as a floor or a ceiling for future revision is the open question.