Skip to content
Briefings are running a touch slower this week while we rebuild the foundations.See roadmap
European Tech Sovereignty
13APR

Sharif, Munir and Xi meet in Beijing

3 min read
17:09UTC

Pakistan's prime minister and army chief were in Beijing together on Monday, meeting Xi Jinping as the Iran deal nears its sequencing decision. The two principal mediators are coordinating with China face to face for the first time.

TechnologyDeveloping
Key takeaway

The mediation has consolidated in the one capital that can underwrite a frozen-asset release.

Pakistani prime minister Shehbaz Sharif met Xi Jinping in Beijing on Monday 25 May, day three of a four-day state visit, with army chief Asim Munir also in the Chinese capital 1. Munir had flown to Beijing straight from Tehran, which he visited on 23 May , while Sharif and his foreign minister arrived in China on the same Saturday .

Pakistan has run as the principal back-channel between Washington and Tehran through the war. For the first time both of its principals are in Beijing at once, coordinating with China in person rather than through relayed messages, and on the days the deal sits at its closest. Munir's shuttle from Tehran on 23 May to Beijing by 25 May collapses two mediation tracks into a single room.

The venue matters more than the photographs. China holds the tools the sequencing deadlock needs a third party to provide: frozen-fund mechanics, yuan settlement, and the standing to vouch for who pays whom and when. Beijing also already hosts Iran's designated China envoy, speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, appointed in late April with sign-off from both President Masoud Pezeshkian and Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei , so the Iranian contact is already in the city.

A joint Pakistan-China statement is expected by 27 May, its content still undisclosed. Whether it names a mechanism for escrowing the frozen assets against a reopening of the strait, or leaves that clause untouched, will matter more than anything in the visit's choreography.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

Pakistan has been acting as the go-between in talks to end the war between the United States and Iran. On 25 May, both Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and its army chief Asim Munir were in Beijing at the same time, meeting Chinese President Xi Jinping. Munir had flown there directly from Tehran, which he visited on 23 May. Iran's own special envoy to China was also in Beijing. This is the first time all the main mediators have gathered in the same city at once. China matters here because it is Iran's biggest oil customer, and it may be the only country that could help resolve the argument over the $12 billion in frozen money that Iran wants released before reopening the strait.

Deep Analysis
Root Causes

Pakistan's role as the principal back-channel emerged from three structural conditions: a 959-kilometre shared border with Iran, a general-officer-led military intelligence relationship with both Washington and Tehran, and the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) financial dependency that gives Pakistan unique access to Chinese credit facilities.

Asim Munir's ability to fly Tehran-to-Beijing without a 24-hour public announcement reflects the operational security of the military-to-military channel, which has carried every nuclear-monitoring concession of the war.

The simultaneous presence of both Sharif (civilian, economic track) and Munir (military, security track) in Beijing signals that the Pakistan side has concluded the $12bn sequencing problem requires both tracks resolved in parallel, not sequentially.

What could happen next?
  • Consequence

    The joint Pakistan-China statement expected by 27 May will indicate whether China is prepared to act as guarantor for the $12bn sequencing mechanism, or merely as a diplomatic host.

  • Opportunity

    If China agrees to route the $12bn release through its state banking system rather than a US Treasury channel, it bypasses the US re-freeze risk Iran has demanded protection against, potentially unlocking the sequencing deadlock.

First Reported In

Update #107 · Two markets, two prices on one Iran deal

Pakistan Today· 25 May 2026
Read original
Different Perspectives
ASML / European tech industry
ASML / European tech industry
ASML's Q2 2026 guidance came in €300m below consensus as China DUV revenue collapsed 17 percentage points; the company's CEO wrote US export-control outcomes directly into 2026 guidance. European tech firms named on the USTR retaliation list alongside SAP, Siemens and Spotify face the same calculus: US trade exposure constrains what Brussels can legislate on their behalf.
France / Anne Le Henanff
France / Anne Le Henanff
Le Henanff chaired the G7 Digital Ministerial at Bercy on 29 May with CAIDA off the agenda, pivoting France's presidency to AI safety principles it had not designed the week around. France backs CAIDA but cannot override Berlin's tariff calculus, so the ministerial produced no new French-led commitment.
Germany / Federal government
Germany / Federal government
Berlin's automotive sector faces up to $200bn in threatened US tariffs, a commercial exposure that dwarfs any benefit CAIDA's public-sector cloud rules would deliver to German digital firms. Federal silence inside the College of Commissioners functions as a block under consensus adoption rules without requiring a formal veto.
USTR / Ambassador Andrew Puzder
USTR / Ambassador Andrew Puzder
Puzder's public warning on 25 May that CAIDA is inconsistent with the EU-US trade framework was the first time Washington made its bilateral pressure visible before a Commission adoption vote rather than after. The USTR Section 301 determination on 24 July provides the enforcement backstop.
European Commission / Henna Virkkunen
European Commission / Henna Virkkunen
Virkkunen framed the third slip as a procedural delay in finalising a 400-page text without addressing Puzder's trade-framework red line publicly. The Commission enforces existing law against Google while losing the legislative timeline on CAIDA, exposing an asymmetric position: enforcement holds; new sovereignty legislation does not.
OpenForum Europe / open-source community
OpenForum Europe / open-source community
The EUR 350m Sovereign Tech Fund has no Commission host, no budget line, and no commissioner's name attached six weeks after the April conference, while Germany is already paying maintainers to staff international standards bodies. The CRA open-source guidance resolves contributor liability but leaves the financial-donations grey area open with the 11 September reporting clock running.