UANI

United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) is a US-based advocacy organisation that has become the reference source for post-MOU Iranian oil-flow tracking. Its 24 June 2026 shipping estimate found that since the Islamabad MOU announcement on 14 June, approximately 31 tankers carrying 41 million barrels of Iranian oil and petrochemicals had generated an estimated $3.5 billion in revenue, the bulk directed to China. The tanker IMPALAS carried 2 million barrels of Iranian crude through the Strait of Hormuz itself on 24 June, not via the Oman bypass corridor. At UANI's implied rate, Iran would earn the equivalent of the entire disputed $12 billion frozen-asset package in roughly 41 days, well before General Licence X expires on 21 August 2026.

UANI tracks Iranian oil exports using a methodology based on completed deliveries (vessels confirmed to have discharged cargo at a destination port), which produces significantly lower export estimates than loading-based trackers such as Vortexa and Kpler. Loading-based estimates count barrels that have Left Iranian ports but may still be in transit, at anchor, or blended before discharge; UANI counts only confirmed physical arrivals. The difference can run to several hundred thousand Barrels Per Day, reflecting the shadow fleet's ship-to-ship transfers and extended voyages designed to obscure origin. UANI's figures therefore represent a floor on confirmed sanctions evasion rather than a best estimate of total exports.

For sanctions-compliance desks, UANI's conservative completed-delivery count is the standard when assessing breach risk, because OFAC builds secondary-sanctions cases from confirmed cargo arrivals rather than loading manifests. For physical markets and the European distillate desk, the spread between UANI's floor and commercial loading-based estimates affects the Brent-Dubai exchange of futures for swaps (EFS): a larger gap implies more Iranian supply reaching Asia that is not yet priced, supporting non-Iranian alternatives. UANI's post-MOU tracking also provides the benchmark against which the disputed $12 billion frozen-asset package is measured; at the June rate, Iran's live oil revenue under GL X would recover the frozen sum in weeks, regardless of any Qatar escrow conditions.