13JUL

Overnight barrage shifts no front line

1 min read

10:28UTC

Russia fired 121 drones and twelve missiles at Ukraine overnight on 10 to 11 July, while ISW logged small tactical moves on both sides that shifted no line.

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ConflictDeveloping

Key takeaway

Russia's overnight barrage and small front-line moves changed no line; the fuel war carried the fortnight.

Overnight on 10 to 11 July, Russia fired 6 Iskander-M and S-400 ballistic missiles, 4 cruise missiles, 2 anti-radar missiles and 121 drones at Ukraine, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported ¹. On the ground, ISW recorded Russian advances in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka area and Ukrainian advances in the Novopavlivka direction on 11 July ².

Neither move was enough to redraw the map, extending the pattern ISW flagged in June of Russia paying heavily for a front that barely shifted . The ground war held its grinding baseline while the fuel war did the moving this fortnight.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

Overnight on 10 to 11 July, Russia fired a mix of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, missiles that target radar systems, and 121 drones at Ukraine. At the same time, on the ground, Russian forces pushed forward slightly in one area near Kostyantynivka and Druzhkivka, while Ukrainian forces advanced slightly in another area near Novopavlivka. This matters because it shows the war grinding on in both directions at once: neither the missile campaign nor the ground fighting is producing a decisive shift, just a slow trade of small gains and losses on both sides.

Deep Analysis

Root Causes

ISW's own assessment as of late June found neither side holds the reserves to convert local tactical gains into a breakthrough, with Russian losses running at roughly 17 times Ukraine's rate for ground it could not hold.

The simultaneous Russian advance near Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka and Ukrainian advance near Novopavlivka on the same night reflects that same structural stalemate: both sides can still push forward in narrow sectors, but neither can sustain the follow-through needed to turn a local gain into a wider collapse of the opposing line.

Source Landscape

This story draws on neutral-leaning sources

Primary parallel: The overnight 10-11 July barrage's 121 drones and 12 missiles is far smaller in raw volume than the 611-drone, 70-missile barrage of 14-15 June, but it included two anti-radar missiles, weapons built specifically to suppress air-defence radar rather than simply saturate a target area, a composition that points to a more targeted suppression effort rather than a repeat of the mass-drone saturation pattern.

Counter-parallel: Earlier record barrages, such as the 656-drone attack on 2 June, were followed by clear infrastructure or casualty outcomes reported within the same news cycle. This smaller, mixed-precision barrage has not been tied to a comparable single high-casualty event in the material reviewed, making its purpose harder to read as a one-off spectacle rather than a sustained suppression campaign.

Sources:Institute for the Study of War / Critical Threats Project·Institute for the Study of War / Critical Threats Project·Institute for the Study of War / Critical Threats Project

Mentions:Russia →Ukraine →Institute for the Study of War →Iskander →S-400 →Kostiantynivka →Druzhkivka →Novopavlivka →Russian forces →

First Reported In

Update #23 · Moscow rations diesel as US cover lapses

Institute for the Study of War / Critical Threats Project· 13 Jul 2026

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Different Perspectives

Turkey

Turkey, a major buyer of Russian diesel cargoes, loses that access under Moscow's first producer-binding export ban, in force from 8 July to 31 July. Ankara hosted the same week's NATO summit pledging EUR 70bn to Ukraine, sitting on both sides of the fuel-and-alliance ledger.

NATO

NATO leaders meeting in Ankara on 7 and 8 July pledged EUR 70bn in equipment, assistance and training for Ukraine across 2026, with a 2027 sustainment commitment and a $40bn Drone Edge counter-drone initiative. European allies now fund the vast majority of that package, filling the gap left by Washington's idled crude waiver.

India

India's state refiners continued buying discounted Urals crude as June's price fell to $63.18 a barrel, insulating New Delhi from the OFAC waiver gap still constraining Western buyers. Indian refiners could pick up diesel-export share as Russia's producer-binding ban shuts out its former customers.

China

China's independent refiners kept importing discounted Urals crude through June as the price fell to $63.18 a barrel, down 26% month-on-month per CREA. Beijing has said nothing on Moscow's new diesel ban, leaving Chinese refiners a likely beneficiary if Turkish and Brazilian buyers seek replacement cargoes.

United States

No successor licence has been issued since General License 134C lapsed on 17 June, leaving a 26-day gap, the longest of the war, in the Russian crude waiver. Washington's silence is tightening the channel without any stated decision, as Treasury weighs whether to let it die.

Ukraine

Ukraine's long-range strike campaign shifted from refineries to seaborne fuel tankers crossing the Sea of Azov, cutting tracked vessel traffic 55% between 30 June and 11 July, per Starboard Maritime Intelligence. The shift targets Russia's export revenue directly rather than just domestic supply, adding pressure alongside the collapsing Urals price.