13JUL

Overnight barrage shifts no front line

1 min read

10:28UTC

Russia fired 121 drones and twelve missiles at Ukraine overnight on 10 to 11 July, while ISW logged small tactical moves on both sides that shifted no line.

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ConflictDeveloping

Key takeaway

Russia's overnight barrage and small front-line moves changed no line; the fuel war carried the fortnight.

Overnight on 10 to 11 July, Russia fired 6 Iskander-M and S-400 ballistic missiles, 4 cruise missiles, 2 anti-radar missiles and 121 drones at Ukraine, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported⁠¹. On the ground, ISW recorded Russian advances in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka area and Ukrainian advances in the Novopavlivka direction on 11 July⁠².

Neither move was enough to redraw the map, extending the pattern ISW flagged in June of Russia paying heavily for a front that barely shifted. The ground war held its grinding baseline while the fuel war did the moving this fortnight.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

Overnight on 10 to 11 July, Russia fired a mix of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, missiles that target radar systems, and 121 drones at Ukraine. At the same time, on the ground, Russian forces pushed forward slightly in one area near Kostyantynivka and Druzhkivka, while Ukrainian forces advanced slightly in another area near Novopavlivka. This matters because it shows the war grinding on in both directions at once: neither the missile campaign nor the ground fighting is producing a decisive shift, just a slow trade of small gains and losses on both sides.

Deep Analysis

Root Causes

ISW's own assessment as of late June found neither side holds the reserves to convert local tactical gains into a breakthrough, with Russian losses running at roughly 17 times Ukraine's rate for ground it could not hold.

The simultaneous Russian advance near Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka and Ukrainian advance near Novopavlivka on the same night reflects that same structural stalemate: both sides can still push forward in narrow sectors, but neither can sustain the follow-through needed to turn a local gain into a wider collapse of the opposing line.

Source Landscape

This story draws on neutral-leaning sources

Primary parallel: The overnight 10-11 July barrage's 121 drones and 12 missiles is far smaller in raw volume than the 611-drone, 70-missile barrage of 14-15 June, but it included two anti-radar missiles, weapons built specifically to suppress air-defence radar rather than simply saturate a target area, a composition that points to a more targeted suppression effort rather than a repeat of the mass-drone saturation pattern.

Counter-parallel: Earlier record barrages, such as the 656-drone attack on 2 June, were followed by clear infrastructure or casualty outcomes reported within the same news cycle. This smaller, mixed-precision barrage has not been tied to a comparable single high-casualty event in the material reviewed, making its purpose harder to read as a one-off spectacle rather than a sustained suppression campaign.

Sources:Institute for the Study of War / Critical Threats Project·Institute for the Study of War / Critical Threats Project·Institute for the Study of War / Critical Threats Project

Mentions:Russia →Ukraine →Institute for the Study of War →Iskander →S-400 →Kostiantynivka →Druzhkivka →Novopavlivka →Russian forces →

First Reported In

Update #23 · Moscow rations diesel as US cover lapses

Institute for the Study of War / Critical Threats Project· 13 Jul 2026

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Different Perspectives

Government of Latvia

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India's Ministry of External Affairs

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Kaja Kallas, EU foreign policy chief

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Donald Trump and the US Treasury

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Kremlin and Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak

After the 9 October call the Kremlin said Russia was ready to supply oil and petroleum products to American and global markets, and Novak brought forward the end of diesel export curbs. Moscow is selling the shortage back as goodwill, with volumes that Decree No. 686 now hides from outside checks.

Volodymyr Zelenskyy, President of Ukraine

Zelenskyy called GL 135 an investment in prolonging the war and offered to stop striking Russian refineries if Russia stops destroying Ukraine's energy system. Answering Trump's call for a new leader, he set a total 60-day ceasefire as the condition for elections, which puts the next move on Moscow.