OPEC+

OPEC+ is the expanded oil producer alliance formed in 2016 when Russia, Kazakhstan, and other non-OPEC producers joined the original OPEC quota framework. Since the UAE's exit on 1 May 2026 the alliance controls roughly 37% of global crude output (down from ~40%) and has repeatedly shown the ability to swing prices through coordinated cuts or increases. Saudi Arabia, the de facto leader, has historically sought stable prices in the $80-100 range to fund its Vision 2030 transformation, a target it has been unable to hold through 2026.

The alliance's composition changed materially in May 2026. The UAE quit OPEC and OPEC+ effective 1 May 2026, citing the Strait of Hormuz blockage and Gulf allies' failure to respond to Iranian military action against UAE territory. The remaining seven core members, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman, have raised output quotas by almost 800,000 bpd between April and July as a phased rollback of the 1.65 million bpd cut agreed in 2023, with the 41st ministerial on 7 June ratifying a third consecutive 188,000 bpd increase for July.

Reuters reported on 1 July that the seven producers are expected to agree a fourth consecutive 188,000 bpd rise, for August, at their Sunday 5 July ministerial, even as Iraq had considered quitting over quota limits before backing a reassessment instead. OPEC's own 11-member output fell to a 37-year low of 16.33 mbd in May, yet Brent had returned to roughly $72/barrel by 1 July, near pre-war levels, as reopening Hormuz transit, weaker Chinese demand and a record IEA stock release outweighed the group's supply discipline; Saudi Arabia's $108-111/BBL breakeven means every increment now costs Riyadh revenue it cannot recoup.

OPEC+'s seven-member subgroup confirmed the widely expected fourth consecutive 188,000 b/d output hike for August at its 5 July ministerial, matching the pace of the prior three months with no move toward an accelerated unwind; the group kept its "accelerated, paused or reversed" hedge intact and set the next review for 2 August.

The market read the confirmed increase as fully priced in: Brent-WTI widened roughly 60% to $3.26 on 6 July, the first session after the decision, with Brent settling at $71.42 and WTI at $68.16, both down on the day, Brent absorbing more of the OPEC-linked softness than WTI. The decision also fed through to Russia's discount: Urals held near $51.25 on 6 July while Brent firmed, widening the Urals-Brent gap to roughly $20, beyond the $10-15 band held through 2024-25.