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US Midterms 2026
27OCT

7 Days to Go: Senate Democrats borrow $15m, outspend GOP

4 min read
13:20UTC

The DSCC spent $16.14m alongside its Senate candidates in the first half of October, more than three times the NRSC's $4.84m. In the same fortnight it drew $15m from a bank credit line, and net of debt it is now narrowly ahead. Republicans hold the bigger reserve: the Senate Leadership Fund had $88.42m on 14 October to Senate Majority PAC's $32.72m.

Key takeaway

Senate Democrats spent through their party committee in early October; Republicans kept $88.42m in their Super PAC.

This briefing mapped
Economic
Legal
Competitive

The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee drew $15m on 5 October from a $25m Amalgamated Bank credit line opened in July, its pre-general report to the FEC shows.

Sources profile:This story draws on neutral-leaning sources

The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee drew $15m on 5 October from a $25m Amalgamated Bank credit line. The line opened in July and runs to June 2028. The committee ended 14 October with $20.67m in cash.

Its Republican rival still owes the $20m it borrowed from Chain Bridge Bank in September. Net of debt, Lowdown's arithmetic puts the Democrats ahead, $5.67m to $5.20m. Most money left for the final week now sits with super PACs. 

The DSCC put $16.14m alongside its Senate candidates from 1 to 14 October against the NRSC's $4.84m; with the House committees added, Democrats led $44.27m to $33.69m.

Sources profile:This story draws on neutral-leaning sources

The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee spent $16.14m alongside its Senate candidates from 1 to 14 October. Its Republican counterpart spent $4.84m. With both House committees counted, Democrats led $44.27m to $33.69m.

Republicans had led this spending in August and September. Party money spent with a candidate gets the lowest broadcast ad rate, so each dollar buys more airtime than Super PAC money in the final weeks. 

Senate Majority PAC began October with $111.96m and spent $108.70m in two weeks, $65.0m of it through its WinSenate affiliate, ending 14 October with $32.72m.

Sources profile:This story draws on neutral-leaning sources

Senate Majority PAC, the main Democratic Senate Super PAC, spent $108.70m from 1 to 14 October. It began the month with $111.96m and ended it with $32.72m.

Most of the money went to affiliates that buy its advertising, led by WinSenate with $65.0m. A new Texas affiliate, Texas Forever, received $10.0m. The Republican counterpart now holds far more cash for the last week. 

The Senate Leadership Fund ended 14 October with $88.42m in cash, 2.7 times Senate Majority PAC's, after raising $18.98m with nothing from Elon Musk.

Sources profile:This story draws on neutral-leaning sources

The Senate Leadership Fund, the Republican Senate Super PAC, held $88.42m on 14 October. That is 2.7 times the cash of its Democratic rival, Senate Majority PAC.

It raised $18.98m in early October with nothing from Elon Musk, who gave it $75m and $83m in September. The reserve may signal retreat or a late push; SLF had already reported $50.41m of spending in the week to 21 October. 

A 9th Circuit panel ruled 2-1 on Monday 26 October that it lacked jurisdiction over DOJ's bid to make California set aside mail ballots from more than 20,000 listed voters, and returned the case to Judge David O. Carter.

Sources profile:This story draws on mixed-leaning sources from United States and Qatar
United StatesQatar

A 9th Circuit panel ruled 2-1 on 26 October that it could not hear the Justice Department's California ballots appeal yet. The department wants mail ballots from more than 20,000 listed voters set aside.

The panel sent the case back to Judge David O. Carter, who hears the motion on 27 October. The panel's unsigned order called the department's emergency partly self-constructed. 

Texas PAC received nothing from 1 to 14 October and closed the fortnight with $9.22m, while MAGA Inc took its own Texas Senate spending to $37.65m with a $7.20m filing on 22 October.

Sources profile:This story draws on neutral-leaning sources

TEXAS PAC, a Republican Super PAC with $131.5m in Texas's Senate race by 30 September, received nothing from 1 to 14 October. It ended the fortnight with $9.22m and no debts.

MAGA Inc filed $7.20m against Democrat James Talarico on 22 October, taking its Texas spending to $37.65m. Texas Forever, a Democratic affiliate, has reported $19.40m against Ken Paxton since 1 October. 

Lower Costs Now filed its first independent expenditure on 1 October and had reported $65.65m in Senate races by 25 October; its FEC filings show $50.18m raised by 14 October.

Sources profile:This story draws on neutral-leaning sources

The National Republican Senatorial Committee funded seven nominees from 1 to 14 October and put no party money behind its candidates in Iowa, New Hampshire, Kansas, Texas, Georgia, North Carolina or South Carolina.

Sources profile:This story draws on neutral-leaning sources

Democratic-side groups filed $67.97m in Iowa's Senate race from 1 to 26 October against $18.49m for Republicans, led by Lower Costs Now's $17.21m for Josh Turek.

Sources profile:This story draws on neutral-leaning sources

The Cook Political Report shifted 19 House races towards Democrats on 23 October and none towards Republicans, and now rates Democrats favoured in the 218 seats needed for a majority.

Sources profile:This story draws on neutral-leaning sources

The Cook Political Report moved 19 House races towards Democrats on 23 October and none towards Republicans. It now rates Democrats favoured in the 218 seats needed for a majority.

Sabato's Crystal Ball crossed the same line on 20 October. Cook's likeliest outcome is a Democratic gain of 12 to 22 seats, though Republicans keep The House until January. 

Sabato's Crystal Ball and the Cook Political Report moved Ohio's governor's race between Vivek Ramaswamy and Amy Acton to Lean Democrat on 22 and 23 October, as SLF filed $12.07m against Sherrod Brown.

Sources profile:This story draws on neutral-leaning sources

The Senate Leadership Fund gave Plains PAC $2.7m on 5 October, and Plains PAC filed its first Kansas Senate spending, $1.59m against Adam Hamilton, on 25 October.

Sources profile:This story draws on neutral-leaning sources

The DSCC-led plaintiffs in DSCC v. Trump asked Chief Judge James Boasberg on Friday 23 October for expedited discovery, with the government's answers due by 28 October.

Sources profile:This story draws on neutral-leaning sources

Plaintiffs led by the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee asked Chief Judge James Boasberg on 23 October to fast-track their case against Donald Trump's administration. They want answers by 28 October.

The suit alleges the administration intimidated state election officials. The plaintiffs seek government messages about demands to remove voters or reject ballots. Answers on that timetable would arrive days before the 3 November vote. 

Fairshake, the crypto-industry super PAC, sent $44.5m in three transfers to Defend American Jobs from 1 to 14 October, its pre-general report shows.

Sources profile:This story draws on neutral-leaning sources

Fairshake, the crypto-industry Super PAC, sent $44.5m to Defend American Jobs in three transfers from 1 to 14 October. It reported no new receipts in the same fortnight.

Defend American Jobs led outside spending in Ohio's Senate race in late September. The money now sits with the committee that buys the advertising, in the last weeks before the 3 November vote. 

Closing comments

Up. Outside groups filed $311.72m in 24-hour reports received from 22 to 26 October across all races, and SLF, which held $88.42m on 14 October, reported $50.41m in the week to 21 October. The next marker is where SLF's 24-hour reports land in Iowa, Kansas, Ohio and Texas before polling day on 3 November.

Different Perspectives
National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC)
National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC)
The NRSC's pre-general report shows nothing spent with Ashley Hinson in Iowa, or with its nominees in six other states, from 1 to 14 October, after $5.54m with Hinson in September. It took no new loan and ended the fortnight with $25.20m in cash and $20m of debt.
Senate Leadership Fund (SLF)
Senate Leadership Fund (SLF)
SLF's pre-general report shows $88.42m in cash on 14 October and $18.98m raised in the fortnight, none of it from Elon Musk. It has since reported $12.07m against Sherrod Brown in Ohio, and its $2.7m to Plains PAC preceded that committee's first Kansas buy on 25 October.
Senate Majority PAC (SMP)
Senate Majority PAC (SMP)
SMP's pre-general report shows it spent $108.70m from 1 to 14 October, including $65.0m to WinSenate and $10.0m to Texas Forever, and ended with $32.72m. Texas Forever has reported $19.40m against Ken Paxton since 1 October.
Lower Costs Now
Lower Costs Now
Lower Costs Now reported $7.37m in Kansas on 24 and 25 October, part of $65.65m in Senate races since its first independent expenditure on 1 October, including $17.21m for Josh Turek in Iowa. SMP's $7.0m is the only money behind it on any filed report Lowdown found.