27OCT

SMP spends $108.70m in two weeks

2 min read

13:20UTC

Senate Majority PAC began October with $111.96m and spent $108.70m in two weeks, $65.0m of it through its WinSenate affiliate, ending 14 October with $32.72m.

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PoliticsAssessed

Key takeaway

Senate Majority PAC spent almost all its October cash in a fortnight, mostly through affiliates.

Senate Majority PAC (SMP), the Democratic-aligned Senate Super PAC (political action committee), began October with $111.96m, took in $29.46m and spent $108.70m in the first half of October, the PAC's pre-general filing shows⁠¹. It ended the fortnight with $32.72m and no debt. A Super PAC may raise and spend without limit but may not plan its spending with candidates.

Most of the money moved to committees SMP set up to buy its advertising. WinSenate, whose Kansas ads against Senator Roger Marshall Lowdown reported on 20 October, received $65.0m in three transfers. A new Texas affiliate, Texas Forever, got $10.0m, and two more, North Star and The Georgia Way, got $4.9m and $1.5m. SMP also gave $17.5m to another Super PAC and $7.0m to a newcomer, Lower Costs Now.

Each affiliate files its own reports to the FEC (Federal Election Commission), so the scale of SMP's spending shows in full only on its own report. On Lowdown's arithmetic, its cash fell by $79.24m in the fortnight, leaving about 29 cents for every dollar it held on 1 October.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

super PACs are political groups in the US that can raise and spend unlimited sums, as long as they do not plan their spending with a candidate. Senate Majority PAC (SMP) is the biggest one working to elect Democratic senators. Its latest report to the Federal Election Commission (FEC), the US campaign-money regulator, shows it spent nearly all its money in the first two weeks of October. Most went to sister groups it set up to buy television and online advertising in particular states. The main Republican equivalent, the Senate Leadership Fund (SLF), kept far more cash in hand for the final days.

Deep Analysis

Root Causes

Ad prices rise as polling day nears, because candidates, parties and outside groups compete for the same slots. A Super PAC that pays market rates gets more airtime per dollar by booking and running early.

SMP's affiliate structure also explains the size of the transfers. Moving money to a state-facing committee is recorded as a disbursement by the parent, so SMP's $108.70m includes cash that the affiliates may not yet have put on air.

What could happen next?

Consequence
SMP's affiliates, not SMP itself, now carry most of the Democratic super PAC money into the final week, and their spending appears only in 24-hour reports.
Risk
A late Republican push funded from the SLF's $88.42m would meet a Democratic super PAC network with less unspent cash at the parent level.

Source Landscape

This story draws on neutral-leaning sources

Primary parallel: In 2022 the SLF halved its Arizona airtime in August and cancelled the rest in late September as Blake Masters trailed in the polls, while SMP kept spending there. Democrat Mark Kelly held the seat.

Counter-parallel: In 2020 Democratic candidates such as Jaime Harrison in South Carolina and Amy McGrath in Kentucky raised and spent record sums and still lost by wide margins. Spending first and spending most did not move states where the electorate's lean was fixed.

Immediate: SMP spent almost its whole opening balance in a fortnight, keeping $32.72m from $111.96m after $29.46m of receipts. Its $7.0m to Lower Costs Now and $17.5m to another Super PAC sit outside the affiliate network.

Structural: the SLF's cash is 2.7 times SMP's, so the late-October advertising market tilts Republican unless SMP raises fast. Its affiliates' own cash at 14 October is not on SMP's report, so the full Democratic reserve is larger than SMP's figure alone.

Consensus view: SMP's transfers follow the model its affiliates were built for: the parent raises, and state-facing committees such as WinSenate and Texas Forever book and file the advertising. WinSenate's $8.14m of Kansas filings from 10 to 20 October show where part of the transfer went.

Counter-view: SMP's ending cash of $32.72m against the SLF's $88.42m leaves Democrats with less to answer a late Republican surge. On that reading SMP has front-loaded, betting that early October airtime, bought before prices peak, does more than a reserve held for the final days.

Key tension: Whether money already spent before mid-October outweighs the larger Republican reserve still available for the last week of advertising.

Sources:Federal Election Commission

Mentions:Senate Majority PAC →WinSenate →Texas Forever →Lower Costs Now →The Georgia Way →Senate Leadership Fund →Kansas →Roger Marshall →Texas →Kentucky →South Carolina →Mark Kelly →Jaime Harrison →Arizona →FEC →US Senate →Democratic Party →

First Reported In

Update #22 · Senate Democrats borrow $15m, outspend GOP

Federal Election Commission· 27 Oct 2026

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Causes and effects

This Event

SMP spends $108.70m in two weeks

The main Democratic Senate super PAC has already spent most of its money, leaving the Republican counterpart with the larger reserve for the final days.

Led to

New PAC Lower Costs Now spends $65.65m

SMP's $7.0m is the only money behind Lower Costs Now on any filed report.

Occurred 25 Oct 2026

Read story →

Different Perspectives

Department of Justice (DOJ)

DOJ appealed to the 9th Circuit after Judge David O. Carter did not rule by a noon deadline on 22 October that DOJ itself had set, seeking to have California set aside mail ballots from more than 20,000 listed voters. Its case is that ineligible votes cancel lawful ones; the panel dismissed the appeal 2-1 on 26 October.

Lower Costs Now

Lower Costs Now reported $7.37m in Kansas on 24 and 25 October, part of $65.65m in Senate races since its first independent expenditure on 1 October, including $17.21m for Josh Turek in Iowa. Its FEC filings show $50.18m raised by 14 October.

MAGA Inc

MAGA Inc, the super PAC aligned with Donald Trump, filed $7.20m against James Talarico on 22 October, taking its Texas spending to $37.65m. Of that, $30.12m is against Talarico and $7.53m is for Ken Paxton, the Republican nominee.

Senate Majority PAC (SMP)

SMP's pre-general report shows it spent $108.70m from 1 to 14 October, including $65.0m to WinSenate and $10.0m to Texas Forever, and ended with $32.72m. Texas Forever has reported $19.40m against Ken Paxton since 1 October.

Senate Leadership Fund (SLF)

SLF's pre-general report shows $88.42m in cash on 14 October and $18.98m raised in the fortnight, none of it from Elon Musk. It has since reported $12.07m against Sherrod Brown in Ohio, and its $2.7m to Plains PAC preceded that committee's first Kansas buy on 25 October.

National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC)

The NRSC's pre-general report shows nothing spent with Ashley Hinson in Iowa, or with its nominees in six other states, from 1 to 14 October, after $5.54m with Hinson in September. It took no new loan and ended the fortnight with $25.20m in cash and $20m of debt.

Written with AI from Lowdown's published reporting. Not individually reviewed by an editor. Editorial standards.