Brent Crude reached $92.69 on Friday, briefly touching $94, in the largest weekly gain in US crude futures history since trading began in 1983. Oil has risen roughly 27% since strikes opened on 28 February. Kuwait is cutting output. Brent crossed $85 on Day 7 and gained another $8 in 24 hours.
The energy disruption has split into two independent crises. The military crisis is visible: Iranian strikes on energy infrastructure have escalated from Bahrain's BAPCO refinery through Fujairah port to Saudi Arabia's Shaybah mega-field. The structural crisis is less visible and will outlast the fighting.
Every major Protection and Indemnity club cancelled war risk coverage at midnight on 5 March. More than 150 commercial vessels sit at anchor in The Gulf of Oman and Arabian Sea. The CSIS estimated the first 100 hours of the conflict at $3.7 billion; the daily cost of stranded shipping runs in addition. Trump's Development Finance Corporation insurance programme and Navy convoy escorts remain non-operational.
Previous Gulf crises — the 1973 embargo, the 1979 revolution, the 1990 invasion of Kuwait — each drove oil higher over weeks or months. This shock has compressed a comparable move into eight days because it combines a chokepoint closure — the strait of Hormuz handles roughly 21% of daily global oil consumption — with the failure of the commercial insurance infrastructure that makes tanker transit possible.
