US Navy officials described the strait of Hormuz to the Wall Street Journal as an Iranian "Kill box" — a term with specific doctrinal meaning: a three-dimensional zone where fires are pre-coordinated, allowing rapid engagement of any target that enters without further authorisation. 300+ commercial ships are stranded in the Persian Gulf. 19 have been damaged since 28 February. Daily transits have collapsed to single digits against a historical average of 138. Fortune reported that extracting the stranded fleet at convoy pace could take months or years.
The progression from threat to execution was rapid. On 8 March, Iran's Foreign Ministry warned tankers to be "very careful" — the first diplomatic-level Hormuz threat. Two days later, the IRGC declared that "not a litre of oil" would pass . On 11 March, six vessels were struck in a 14-hour window across 200 kilometres of water from Hormuz to Iraq's Basra terminal , using anti-ship missiles, sea mines, and — for the first time — explosive-laden drone boats . The IMO counted 10 vessels attacked, 7 seafarers killed, and 20,000 stranded as of 10 March . Those figures have since worsened.
The Hormuz Chokepoint has been a theoretical vulnerability since the 1980s Tanker War, when Iran mined the strait and attacked Kuwaiti tankers. The Reagan administration's Operation Earnest Will provided naval escorts starting in 1987 — but against anti-ship missiles and contact mines, without GPS-guided anti-ship ballistic missiles, without explosive drone boats, and without the dense, pre-registered fire grid the IRGC has established across the strait's 21-mile width. Defence officials said escorts cannot begin until the threat of Iranian fire is "substantially reduced." Energy Secretary Wright said the Navy is "simply not ready" . These are operational admissions, not diplomatic hedges.
The China exception complicates the picture. Chinese-operated vessels have been transiting with de facto IRGC protection , broadcasting AIS messages emphasising Chinese ownership and crew composition. 11.7 million barrels of Iranian crude have passed through Hormuz since 28 February, all bound for China. Shadow fleet ships account for half of all March transits. Iran has not blockaded the strait — it has imposed selective access, deciding who passes and who does not. For non-Chinese commercial shipping, the strait is closed. For Beijing, it is open. The result is not a blockade in the traditional sense but a reordering of maritime access along geopolitical lines, enforced by pre-registered fire.
