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Iran Conflict 2026
19APR

Hamas: stop hitting Gulf neighbours

4 min read
11:05UTC

Iran's closest Palestinian ally publicly asked Tehran to stop hitting Gulf neighbours — a rebuke its own elected president failed to enforce.

ConflictDeveloping
Key takeaway

Gulf financial leverage over Hamas has demonstrably overridden ideological solidarity with Iran.

Hamas publicly called on Iran to "avoid targeting neighbouring countries" while affirming Tehran's right to retaliate against the United States and Israel 1. The statement came from an organisation headquartered in Doha — a city that has absorbed Iranian ballistic missiles repeatedly since 28 February and was targeted again on Saturday with four missiles and several drones.

The political bureau's position in Qatar creates a dependency that now openly contradicts its dependence on Iranian patronage. Qatar hosts Hamas's senior leadership, funds its operations, and pledged $1 billion to Trump's Board of Peace initiative. When Iranian missiles land on Qatari soil, Hamas's two benefactors are at war with each other. The organisation's military wing needs Iranian weapons. Its political wing needs Qatari territory. On Saturday, territory won. Hamas has absorbed every escalation of this conflict without publicly criticising its patron. What changed was the accumulation of Gulf Arab fury: the UN Security Council's Resolution 2817 condemned Iran's Gulf attacks with a record 135 co-sponsors ; the Arab League Secretary-General called the strikes "treacherous" — a term implying betrayal of the 2023 Saudi-China brokered rapprochement ; Iranian drones hit a Bahraini desalination plant, the island's sole water lifeline ; migrant workers were killed in Saudi Arabia by a drone aimed at nearby radar systems . The pressure on Hamas's Doha hosts became untenable.

The statement's futility is its most revealing element. President Pezeshkian ordered Gulf strikes halted on 7 March. Hours later, Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf reversed the commitment, declaring Gulf nations hosting US bases remained targets 2. The IRGC continued firing. Hamas is now asking the Revolutionary Guards to exercise restraint that Iran's own constitutional chain of command could not impose — an appeal to an institution that has publicly demonstrated it takes orders from no civilian authority, foreign or domestic. The IRGC's 31 autonomous provincial commands have sustained coordinated operations across The Gulf even after the destruction of their aerospace and drone headquarters in Tehran . An organisation that disregards its own president is unlikely to heed a Palestinian faction whose survival depends on Iranian money.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

Hamas depends on Qatar for money and political shelter — Qatar hosts Hamas's leadership and funds its operations. Qatar has repeatedly absorbed Iranian missile strikes. Qatar applied sufficient pressure that Hamas did something unprecedented: it publicly told its primary military patron to change tactics. The problem is that Iran's missile forces answer to Supreme Leader Khamenei, constitutionally insulated from both elected officials and external allies. Hamas has demanded something it has no mechanism to deliver — but the fact that it spoke at all reveals the scale of Qatari financial pressure that was applied.

Deep Analysis
Synthesis

Hamas's appeal reveals a secondary fracture in the Axis of Resistance that Tehran cannot paper over with ideology. For the first time, an Iranian-aligned armed group has publicly demanded Iran change its military tactics — demonstrating that Gulf financial leverage can fracture the Axis where state diplomacy has failed. This simultaneously expands Qatar's soft power within the conflict and diminishes Hamas's standing within the Axis as an actor that will subordinate Iranian strategic priorities to its own institutional survival.

Root Causes

Iran's dual-state structure constitutionally separates IRGC command, which reports to the Supreme Leader, from civilian government authority. This is not a malfunction — it is a design feature of the Islamic Republic established to ensure revolutionary forces cannot be constrained by elected moderates. Gulf states and Hamas are both directing appeals at the wrong institutional address: Pezeshkian's government cannot compel the IRGC any more than Hamas can.

Escalation

The appeal is directionally significant but operationally inert. The IRGC Aerospace Force reports directly to Khamenei under Article 150 of Iran's constitution, bypassing both the elected president and parliament. Hamas adds no new coercive mechanism to pressures that have already failed — Pezeshkian's halt order, Ghalibaf's reversal, and continued IRGC strikes confirm this. The more consequential question is whether Qatar uses Hamas's public compliance as a bargaining chip in direct back-channel negotiations with Tehran — that channel is not yet publicly visible.

What could happen next?
  • Meaning

    The Axis of Resistance is not ideologically monolithic; Gulf financial dependency creates coercive leverage that overrides solidarity when host-state survival is at stake.

    Immediate · Assessed
  • Consequence

    Qatar may leverage Hamas's public compliance as a diplomatic asset in back-channel negotiations with Tehran seeking a halt to Gulf state strikes.

    Short term · Suggested
  • Risk

    If IRGC continues Gulf strikes despite Hamas's appeal, Hamas's authority within the Axis will be further diminished — weakening its post-war political position in Gaza reconstruction negotiations.

    Medium term · Suggested
  • Precedent

    First instance of an Iranian-aligned group publicly demanding Iran change its military tactics establishes a precedent for Axis internal dissent that future crises may deepen.

    Long term · Suggested
First Reported In

Update #36 · Israel plans full Litani seizure

Al Jazeera· 15 Mar 2026
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Causes and effects
Different Perspectives
Global South governments (Indonesia, Brazil, South Africa)
Global South governments (Indonesia, Brazil, South Africa)
Neutrality was possible when the targets were military. 148 dead schoolgirls made it impossible — no government can explain that away to its own citizens.
Trump administration
Trump administration
Oscillating between claiming diplomatic progress and threatening escalation, while deploying additional ground forces to the Gulf.
Israeli security establishment
Israeli security establishment
Fears a rapid, vague US-Iran agreement that freezes military operations before the IDF achieves what it considers full strategic objectives. A senior military official assessed the campaign is 'halfway there' and needs several more weeks.
Iraqi government
Iraqi government
Iraq's force majeure is the position of a non-belligerent whose entire petroleum economy has been paralysed by a war between others — storage full, exports blocked, production being cut with no timeline for resumption.
Russia — Ambassador Vassily Nebenzia
Russia — Ambassador Vassily Nebenzia
Moscow calibrated its position between Gulf states and Iran: abstaining on Resolution 2817 rather than vetoing it, signalling it would not block protection for Gulf states, while refusing to endorse a text that ignores the US-Israeli campaign it regards as the conflict's proximate cause. Russia proposed its own ceasefire text — which failed 4-2-9 — allowing Moscow to claim the peacemaker role while providing Iran with satellite targeting intelligence, a duality consistent with its approach in Syria.
France — President Macron
France — President Macron
France absorbed its first combat death in a conflict it has publicly declined to join. The killing of Chief Warrant Officer Frion in Erbil forces Macron to choose between escalating involvement and accepting casualties from the margins.