Skip to content
Briefings are running a touch slower this week while we rebuild the foundations.See roadmap
Iran Conflict 2026
11APR

Philippines Cuts Bilateral Hormuz Deal, Bypassing US Posture

3 min read
11:03UTC

The Philippines secured toll-free passage through the Strait of Hormuz on 2 April via a direct call between Foreign Minister Lazaro and Iran's Abbas Araghchi. Manila is the first US ally to negotiate separately with Tehran since the blockade began.

ConflictAssessed
Key takeaway

Manila's bilateral deal is the first formal fracture in US allies' collective stance against Iran's Hormuz toll.

Philippines Foreign Minister Lazaro spoke directly with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi on 2 April, securing toll-free Hormuz passage for Philippine-flagged vessels. Manila becomes the first US treaty ally to negotiate bilaterally with Tehran since the IRGC Larak Island toll system became operational .

The Philippines was among the first countries to declare a national energy emergency as the blockade tightened in late March . With 45 days of fuel reserves and a heavily import-" "dependent energy system, Manila had direct economic pressure " "to act. The bilateral deal solves the Philippines problem. It does not solve the alliance problem.

Iran's parliament voted to codify the Hormuz toll into permanent domestic law , explicitly banning US and Israeli ships. The Philippines deal demonstrates what that law's exemption architecture looks like in practice: Iran selects which states receive access and on what terms. Manila accepted those terms. That is a meaningful concession from a US ally, irrespective of the fuel arithmetic that drove it.

Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan now face identical domestic pressure. Each depends heavily on Gulf energy imports. Each is a US ally. If any follows Manila's precedent, the collective posture Washington has relied on since the blockade began effectively dissolves into a series of bilateral licensing arrangements administered by Tehran.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

The Philippines cut its own side deal with Iran so its ships can pass through the Strait of Hormuz without paying Iran's toll. It is the first US ally to do this. If other countries follow, Iran's ability to use the strait as leverage over the whole world weakens, because each country will just negotiate its own quiet arrangement.

Deep Analysis
Root Causes

The Philippines' decision stems from a structural vulnerability that predates the conflict: ASEAN economies are disproportionately dependent on Gulf oil, with limited domestic production and no strategic petroleum reserve adequate to absorb a sustained Hormuz disruption. Manila had no spare buffer.

The secondary cause is the absence of any US mechanism to compensate allies for bearing Hormuz toll costs. Washington demanded solidarity without offering offsetting support. The Philippines simply acted on its interests when the cost exceeded a political threshold.

Escalation

De-escalatory for the Philippines specifically, escalatory for the collective posture. Iran's incentive to extend the conflict increases as more bilateral exemptions legitimise its toll authority. The deal makes a negotiated end to the Hormuz blockade harder because Iran now has demonstrated that individual deals are achievable.

What could happen next?
  • Precedent

    First bilateral Hormuz toll exemption by a US ally; creates a template for Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and India to follow.

    Immediate · High
  • Consequence

    US leverage over allied shipping policy diminishes with each bilateral deal; the collective pressure architecture fragments from the outside in.

    Short term · High
  • Risk

    Iran's toll evolves from a wartime measure to a permanent licensing framework, effectively privatising passage through an international strait under its unilateral authority.

    Medium term · Medium
  • Opportunity

    The Philippines deal creates a backchannel that could be used for broader indirect diplomacy if Washington chooses to engage it rather than condemn it.

    Short term · Low
First Reported In

Update #57 · Bridge strike kills eight; Army chief fired

Philippines Department of Foreign Affairs· 3 Apr 2026
Read original
Causes and effects
This Event
Philippines Cuts Bilateral Hormuz Deal, Bypassing US Posture
Manila's deal is the first formal crack in the collective posture Washington has maintained since the Hormuz toll began. Each bilateral exception normalises Iran's authority over passage and weakens US leverage over allied shipping.
Different Perspectives
Qatar
Qatar
Qatar holds approximately $12 billion in frozen Iranian assets that Tehran named as the precondition for any Hormuz reopening sequence; with Oman sidelined and no agreed HEU custodian, the asset-routing architecture that any deal requires has no operational channel and no neutral financial intermediary to run it through.
Hengaw and Iranian civilian population
Hengaw and Iranian civilian population
Iranians face an internet capped at 40 per cent by hardware their president cannot dismantle, field killings that leave no court record, and judicial executions running in parallel; Hengaw, based in Norway, is the primary remaining monitor of a repression system the IRGC is deliberately moving beyond auditable records. The real toll is higher than any single monitor's count.
China
China
China supplied deep-packet-inspection hardware that caps Iran's internet at 40 per cent and enables an instant on-demand blackout, and was barred by Trump as a potential HEU custodian on 27 May. Beijing gains from Iran's continued non-alignment with the West while the DPI sale extends Chinese surveillance-technology exports as a geopolitical instrument.
Pakistan
Pakistan
Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar met Rubio in Washington on 29 May, formally inheriting the role of sole active mediator after Oman's forced withdrawal. Pakistan lacks Oman's banking infrastructure for frozen-asset routing and carries its own regional stakes, making it a less structurally neutral broker for the Qatar-held $12 billion sequencing.
Kuwait
Kuwait
Kuwait invoked Article 51 of the UN Charter after absorbing an Iranian ballistic-missile strike on Ali Al Salem Air Base on 28 May, becoming the first Gulf state to make a formal individual self-defence claim in the war. The invocation creates a legal record enabling a future bilateral defence-pact activation without yet triggering it.
Oman
Oman
Oman denied any Hormuz toll plan within hours of Bessent's 28 May threat, absorbing a sanctions warning from the country it has brokered for since 1981. The rapid capitulation preserved the channel formally, but Tehran now knows Washington will threaten its own mediator, which changes Muscat's calculus on how far it can lean into any joint-management architecture.