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Iran Conflict 2026
9APR

Seven Gulf states back offensive action

3 min read
11:02UTC

The United States and six Arab states jointly reserved 'the option of responding' to Iranian attacks — the first written multilateral framework for potential offensive action against Iran.

ConflictDeveloping
Key takeaway

Oman's deliberate exclusion from the coalition statement simultaneously formalises the anti-Iran posture and structurally protects the only active diplomatic back-channel — a bifurcation that serves both escalation and de-escalation functions at once.

The United States, Bahrain, Jordan, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE issued a joint State Department statement overnight condemning Iranian attacks on Gulf territory and reserving "the option of responding to the aggression." None of these states has previously committed, in a joint written document, to potential offensive action against Iran.

The word "option" is deliberately elastic — it preserves ambiguity short of a commitment to strike. But the document itself is the development. Axios had reported that the UAE and Saudi Arabia were actively considering direct strikes on Iranian missile launch sites , driven by the cumulative volume of ordnance both countries have absorbed. This statement gives that reported consideration a multilateral framework and a public record. What was a bilateral discussion between two Gulf capitals is now a seven-nation position with Washington's imprimatur.

The signatories arrived at this statement through different accumulations of cost. Qatar has absorbed Iranian drone strikes on Ras Laffan and Mesaieed , the world's largest LNG export complex, but has not publicly joined the US-Israeli campaign. Kuwait has intercepted 97 ballistic missiles and 283 drones and lost an eleven-year-old girl to shrapnel. The UAE's intercept count stands at 165 ballistic missiles, 2 cruise missiles, and 541 drones , with the Burj Al Arab now damaged. Each signatory's threshold for moving from "option" to action differs, but the framework for collective action now exists on paper.

Saudi Arabia's signature carries the heaviest diplomatic cost. Riyadh's 2023 China-brokered normalisation agreement with Iran was Beijing's highest-profile diplomatic achievement in the Middle East. China has already escalated from general calls for restraint to direct negotiations with Tehran over specific infrastructure targets . If Saudi Arabia acts on the option this statement reserves, it voids the normalisation, and Beijing loses its credibility as guarantor. The statement forces a choice that Riyadh has spent three years avoiding: alignment with Washington's military campaign or preservation of Beijing's diplomatic architecture. That choice is now formalised.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

Eight countries have signed a joint document saying they might strike back at Iran — the first time this group has put that in writing together. The key word is 'option': this is a formal warning, not a declaration of intent. What the body does not highlight is who is missing: Oman, which hosts the only active diplomatic channel between Iran and the West, was not part of this statement. Gulf states appear to be deliberately keeping one door open while publicly hardening their collective posture through another.

Deep Analysis
Synthesis

China's 2023 Iran-Saudi normalisation deal explicitly positioned Beijing as the Gulf's preferred security guarantor over Washington. Saudi Arabia's co-signature on a statement reserving offensive action against Iran effectively nullifies that arrangement and signals that, under existential pressure, Gulf states revert to the US security umbrella — a significant geopolitical setback for Beijing whose implications extend well beyond this conflict's duration.

Root Causes

Gulf states face a structural dilemma: security dependence on the US requires visible solidarity with the US-Israeli operation, while economic vulnerability — all Gulf sovereign wealth funds, oil revenues, and critical infrastructure sit within Iran's missile range — creates strong incentives to limit actual military participation. The joint statement resolves this domestically by maximising political commitment while minimising operational exposure.

Escalation

The statement's primary escalatory risk is not independent Gulf military action — none of the signatories maintains a sustained strike capability against hardened Iranian targets without US intelligence, targeting, and logistical support. The more immediate risk is that it provides political cover for the US to broaden its own target set, framing expanded strikes as coalition-endorsed rather than unilateral American action.

What could happen next?
  • Risk

    Saudi or Emirati participation in offensive operations against Iran would bring Aramco and ADNOC infrastructure within the scope of legitimate Iranian retaliation, creating a secondary oil supply shock distinct from and potentially larger than the Hormuz closure.

    Short term · Assessed
  • Consequence

    China's credibility as a Gulf security guarantor — established through the 2023 Iran-Saudi normalisation it brokered — is materially damaged by Saudi Arabia's co-signature on a statement committing to potential offensive action against Tehran.

    Medium term · Assessed
  • Precedent

    The joint statement establishes the first written multilateral framework for potential Gulf offensive action against Iran, lowering the political threshold for future collective responses regardless of whether action follows in this conflict.

    Long term · Assessed
  • Meaning

    Oman's exclusion from the statement is a deliberate structural choice preserving the Muscat diplomatic channel as a parallel track, signalling that de-escalation optionality is being consciously maintained even as coalition posture hardens.

    Immediate · Assessed
First Reported In

Update #20 · Hormuz sealed; Senate war powers bill fails

Axios· 5 Mar 2026
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Causes and effects
This Event
Seven Gulf states back offensive action
First joint written commitment by the US, Bahrain, Jordan, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE to potential offensive action against Iran. Converts an implicit coalition posture into a formal multilateral position that could provide political cover for direct Gulf strikes on Iranian territory.
Different Perspectives
Lloyd's of London
Lloyd's of London
The Joint War Committee left Hormuz war-risk premiums at $10-14 million per voyage on 25 May, declining to move on Brent's 5% fall. The JWC's protocol requires a UN Security Council resolution or bilateral government certification letter before de-listing, and neither has arrived: a verbal understanding does not satisfy the formal condition the reinsurance market's treaty terms require.
Gulf Arab producers
Gulf Arab producers
Saudi Arabia and UAE depend on Hormuz for their own crude exports; Aramco CEO Nasser has warned no oil market recovery arrives until 2027 if the blockade continues past mid-June. Monday's $98.96 Brent settlement shortens nothing for Gulf producers without a signed instrument and a Pentagon mine-clearance timeline that runs up to six months post-ceasefire.
Qatar
Qatar
Qatar holds $12bn of frozen Iranian assets at the centre of the sequencing dispute but cannot release them without explicit US Treasury authorisation, given the original freeze was a US instrument. As the asset-holding state, Qatar's leverage is real but passive: it is the escrow holder, not the decision-maker, and any resolution requires US Treasury sign-off that Trump has withheld.
Pakistan
Pakistan
With both Prime Minister Sharif and army chief Munir simultaneously in Beijing on 25 May, Pakistan has for the first time consolidated its civilian and military mediation tracks under China's roof. Munir's direct Tehran-to-Beijing flight signals that the security and financial threads of the sequencing problem are now being worked in parallel rather than sequentially.
China
China
Beijing hosted Pakistan's principal mediators and Iran's China envoy Ghalibaf simultaneously on 25 May while its banking regulator capped new state-bank lending to five sanctioned refiners. China is simultaneously the most credible third-party underwriter of the $12bn sequencing and the state whose institutions face live OFAC secondary-sanctions exposure if the deadlock persists through GL V's expiry.
United States
United States
Trump posted on 24 May that the blockade holds until a deal is certified and signed, ruling out the informal MOU structure both sides had been building. The 'certified, and signed' condition is the first operational bar Trump has attached in 87 days, but it arrived without an executive instrument, maintaining the gap between posted ultimatum and signed US policy.