22OCT

Yemen's front began with a blocked flight

2 min read

17:22UTC

SABA reports at least 17 soldiers killed at Saudi-backed camps in eastern Yemen, and Kpler data shows tankers thinning out of the Bab el-Mandeb.

← Back to Iran says it mined Hormuz and hit 7 ships Jump to analysis ↓

ConflictDeveloping

Key takeaway

Both of the war's shipping chokepoints are tightening at the same time.

SABA (Yemen News Agency), the wire of the internationally recognised government in Aden, reported at least 17 soldiers killed at Saudi-backed camps in eastern Yemen⁠¹. Kpler tracking data relayed by the Associated Press shows fewer tankers using the Bab el-Mandeb, the strait between Yemen and Djibouti that carries Red Sea traffic towards the Suez Canal, after the week's attacks.

AP dates the current escalation to Monday 13 July, when a Saudi strike on Sanaa airport stopped an Iranian Mahan Air flight carrying a senior delegation from the Houthis, the Iran-aligned armed movement that has held northern Yemen since 2014; the coalition later let the aircraft land at Hodeida instead⁠². Since then the Houthis have struck Abha airport, Saudi shipping and Saudi oil facilities, Saudi-led forces have hit Hodeida and Kamaran, missiles and drones have landed on Yemeni military camps, and Mokha port has been damaged.

Shipping that left The Gulf had been running this way instead. Vessels now avoiding the Bab el-Mandeb have no third route to take, so the two straits tighten together rather than one relieving the other. The 2022 UN-brokered truce that held Yemen's war at a simmer for four years is at risk on AP's account.

Several operational details in that reporting rest on anonymous Yemeni, Gulf and Houthi officials. This movement has also claimed more than has been shown: on 5 August it announced two tanker strikes when UKMTO logged a single explosion, and its July claim against crude transport infrastructure was never independently verified.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

The Houthis are an armed movement that controls much of northern Yemen. Bab el-Mandeb is a narrow waterway between Yemen and Djibouti, used by ships travelling between Asia, Europe and the Red Sea. SABA reported 17 soldiers killed, while shipping data showed fewer tankers using the route. Violence in Yemen can therefore affect trade far beyond the country.

What could happen next?

Consequence
Traffic disruption at Bab el-Mandeb removes part of the alternative route available to Gulf-bound shipping.
Risk
Unverified claims and counter-claims may prompt ships to divert before authorities establish what happened.

Source Landscape

This story draws on centre-leaning sources from United States

United States×2

LeftRight

Bab el-Mandeb links the Red Sea with The Gulf of Aden and the Suez Canal. Tankers avoiding it must sail around southern Africa, adding distance, fuel use and days to a voyage.

Seven vessels diverted after tanker strikes in July. Lower traffic now affects a route that had offered an alternative for cargo displaced from Hormuz.

Consensus view: Attacks near Bab el-Mandeb threaten a second maritime route as Hormuz remains constrained. Sana'a Center researcher Maged al-Madhaji has described Houthi maritime operations as a way to raise regional costs without holding conventional naval superiority.

Counter-view: Gulf Research Center analysts argue that Saudi air defences and coalition strikes can contain the threat if they identify launch networks. The difficulty lies in distinguishing claims from confirmed attacks.

Key tension: Whether the violence becomes a sustained campaign against shipping, or remains a series of contested incidents.

First Reported In

Update #168 · Iran replaces the man who set its terms

Associated Press· 11 Aug 2026

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Causes and effects

Caused by

Houthis claim two tankers; UKMTO logs one blast

The reported Yemen casualties and tanker decline followed earlier Houthi attacks on shipping.

Occurred 5 Aug 2026

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This Event

Yemen's front began with a blocked flight

The southern chokepoint had been absorbing traffic pushed out of the northern one, so a squeeze there compounds the problem instead of relieving it.

Led to

Six dead in the Bab el-Mandeb

The Bab el-Mandeb deaths follow a week in which Houthi attacks had already reduced traffic through the strait.

Occurred 10 Aug 2026

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Different Perspectives

Wang Yi

China's foreign minister and Djibouti's issued a joint communique on 21 October saying the war should not reach the Horn of Africa and stressing free navigation through Bab al-Mandeb. The text names neither Iran nor the Houthis, and Djibouti hosts China's only overseas military base, opposite the Yemeni coast.

Ministry of External Affairs

India's foreign ministry called the attacks on Saudi civilian and energy sites "unacceptable" on 22 October and said they must stop at once. An Indian died at Dammam, Indians were injured there and at Shaybah, and about 4,000 Umrah pilgrims remain stranded by one MP's count.

Iraq

Iraq closed the al-Sheeb crossing with Iran to travellers and trucks from 21 October and said other crossings would close gradually. Unlike September's closure, which ended on a staged timetable, this one has none, and Iran's interior ministry said it received no notice.

Abdel Fattah el-Sisi

Egypt's president said on 21 October that Cairo's support would "defend Saudi territory, and does not include an attack on Yemen". Araghchi warned that Egyptian involvement would further complicate the situation, and Cairo's limit matches the one Ankara set on 8 October against attacking another state's soil.

UK Ministry of Defence

The MoD said on 20 October that RAF Typhoons over Saudi Arabia will not strike the Houthis, but extended tanker support to Saudi operations including against Houthi targets in Yemen. The tanker line sets no limit on strikes, so British aircraft may now refuel Saudi jets on bombing runs.

Turkey

Ankara sent the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement to parliament around 20 October, and its published text treats an attack on one party as an attack on all. Article 16 brings it into force only on the last ratification, so the 5 October invocation in Riyadh could not yet bind Turkey.

Written with AI from Lowdown's published reporting. Not individually reviewed by an editor. Editorial standards.