Day 5: IRGC installs Khamenei's son as leader

The IDF struck the Assembly of Experts headquarters in Qom on Tuesday while the body was meeting to choose a successor to Ali Khamenei. Multiple members were killed or wounded, according to Israel Hayom and Middle East Eye. Iranian state media claimed the Building had been evacuated before the strike. Whether the vote occurred before the strike, in its aftermath, or in a dispersed emergency session remains unclear and cannot be independently verified during Iran's ongoing internet blackout.

The body constitutionally responsible for selecting Iran's Supreme Leader was struck mid-session during the first leadership transition in 35 years. The vote's timeline and legitimacy cannot be independently verified during a communications blackout now in its sixth day. Read full version ↓

Mojtaba Khamenei's wife and sister were reported killed in the 28 February strike on Ali Khamenei's compound. Mojtaba survived. Reports on whether his mother survived remain conflicting.

Iran's new Supreme Leader lost his wife and sister in the strike campaign that killed his father and triggered the succession. He assumes authority over decisions of war and negotiation as a bereaved combatant, not a detached arbiter. Read full version ↓

A drone struck the parking area adjacent to the US consulate in Dubai late Tuesday. Fire broke out; no injuries reported. Secretary Rubio confirmed all personnel accounted for. UAE authorities confirmed the strike but have not formally attributed it to Iran. Dubai is the third Gulf location — after Riyadh and Duqm — to absorb strikes on US diplomatic or allied infrastructure in four days. The June 2025 Twelve-Day War left UAE-Iran commercial channels intact; this strike ends any pretence of that buffer holding through a second round.

Dubai is The Gulf's financial centre and hosts the largest Iranian diaspora community outside Iran. The strike ends the commercial neutrality that survived the June 2025 Twelve-Day War, directly threatening the economic infrastructure through which China and India conduct much of their Gulf trade. Read full version ↓

President Trump announced the US Development Finance Corporation will provide political risk insurance for all maritime trade in The Gulf, with Navy escorts through the strait of Hormuz if required. Government-backed War risk coverage for commercial shipping at this scale has not been deployed since the US war risk insurance Act of 1914. Operation Earnest Will (1987–88) used Navy escorts during the Iran-Iraq tanker war but without state insurance; the combination of state insurance and military escort is historically unprecedented. The coverage applies only to US-aligned shipping under US or allied flags; Chinese, Russian, and Indian tankers operating under separate commercial arrangements are not automatically included. Roughly 60% of Gulf oil exports flow to Asia. Oil prices initially fell on the announcement.

The announcement addresses the insurance vacuum that shut the strait of Hormuz more effectively than Iranian missiles. But by covering only US-aligned shipping, it creates a two-tier maritime order that excludes the Asian economies most dependent on Gulf oil — a structural tension with no precedent in modern energy markets. Read full version ↓

USNI News reported additional European warships en route to the Mediterranean, coinciding with the US announcement of government-backed Gulf shipping insurance and Navy escorts.

The deployment signals that Gulf shipping protection is becoming a multilateral military commitment. For European governments already managing surging gas prices from disrupted Qatari LNG, the calculus is direct: the alternative to escort duty is energy rationing. Read full version ↓