Skip to content
Welcome, thoughtbot's Giant Robots listeners!Start here
Iran Conflict 2026
12AUG

Iran charts Hormuz with formal PGSA coordinates

4 min read
14:52UTC

Iran's Persian Gulf Strait Authority published the formal coordinates of its Hormuz controlled zone on 20 May: eastern boundary from Kuh-e Mubarak to Fujairah, western boundary from Qeshm to Umm Al-Quwain, with all vessels inside required to obtain authorisation.

ConflictDeveloping
Key takeaway

Once coordinates are published, neighbours and underwriters must respond on paper or accept by silence. Tehran has forced that choice.

Iran's Persian Gulf Strait Authority (PGSA, the Iranian maritime body administering the toll architecture) published the formal coordinates of its "controlled maritime zone" on Wednesday 20 May⁠1. The eastern boundary runs from Kuh-e Mubarak on the Iranian coast to southern Fujairah in the UAE; the western boundary runs from the tip of Qeshm Island in Iran to Umm Al-Quwain in the UAE. All vessels inside the zone, per the Iran International notice, must coordinate with the authority and obtain authorisation. PGSA has opened its vessel-submission portal four days earlier and is still withholding the fee schedule it promised.

The coordinates convert what had been operational practice and the Majlis's earlier toll bill into a cartographic-legal claim. Verbal declarations of authority can be walked back; published coordinates cannot, because they trigger a written obligation on neighbours and flag states. The United Arab Emirates has not, as of writing, published a counter-coordinate set, which leaves Emirati silence as a maritime-law response.

The insurance consequence runs through Lloyd's of London. Until Wednesday, underwriters had a verbal toll claim and a portal whose fee schedule remained unwritten. With coordinates on a chart, the boundary can be modelled: tanker routes can be plotted against the zone, war-risk premium tiers can be drawn against entry and exit lines, and the structural insurance layer Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley flagged on 12 May now has the cartographic input it needs to price.

Tehran chose to publish coordinates while withholding the fee, and the asymmetry reads as deliberate. The chart converts the zone into a legal fact; the missing fee preserves Iranian discretion over what compliance actually costs. Flag states and underwriters now have to accept or reject the cartography on paper, while Tehran retains the room to set the price later.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

Iran's newly formed Persian Gulf Strait Authority published precise GPS-style boundary coordinates for the maritime zone it says it controls at the strait of Hormuz. This is the narrow waterway through which roughly 20% of the world's oil passes. Before this, Iran had made verbal statements claiming it had authority over ships passing through. Publishing exact coordinates is a significant step up: it creates a written, mappable boundary that other countries and shipping companies now have to formally respond to or ignore on the record. Iran is saying: all ships inside this zone need to get our permission. It has not yet published what it will charge for that permission, which appears deliberate; Iran gets the legal claim on paper while keeping flexibility on the price. Shipping insurers and naval commanders now have a specific map they must account for, even if they do not accept its legal validity.

What could happen next?
  • Precedent

    Flag states that do not publish formal counter-coordinates within 90 days risk having their silence interpreted as acquiescence under customary international law. The UAE, as a state whose own coastline provides two of the PGSA zone's four boundary reference points, faces the most immediate pressure to respond on paper.

    Short term · Suggested
  • Consequence

    Lloyd's of London underwriters now have the cartographic input needed to model war-risk premiums against specific vessel entry and exit points in the declared zone. The coordinate publication enables tiered premium structures; vessels transiting the zone pay a higher premium than vessels skirting the boundary; which partially implements the insurance-layer effect of the PGSA architecture without Iranian enforcement.

    Immediate · Assessed
  • Risk

    The withheld fee schedule creates a second-stage legal moment: when PGSA publishes its tariff, flag states and Rubio's 'completely illegal' position will face a concrete enforcement test. The coordinate publication without a fee is a deliberate staging that preserves Iranian discretion on timing.

    Short term · Assessed
First Reported In

Update #105 · Khamenei keeps the uranium; House pulls the vote

Iran International· 22 May 2026
Read original →
Different Perspectives
Russia
Russia
Russia vetoed the same renewal on 17 September, arguing that Britain, France and Germany never validly triggered the snapback that reimposed the pre-2015 UN resolutions. No panel was ever seated under that mandate, so the UN list decays fastest for states that screen against it rather than against the American one.
China
China
China vetoed renewal of the UN sanctions monitoring mandate on 17 September, arguing that Resolution 2231 terminated on 18 October 2025 and that the Security Council should drop Iran's nuclear file altogether. On that reading there is nothing to monitor, so the sanctions survive and their enforcement does not.
Iraq
Iraq
Baghdad saw the last American counter-Islamic State troops leave its territory on 30 September, completing a timetable it agreed with Washington in September 2024. Iraqi airspace deconfliction passes to Baghdad, which still has an open inquiry into the Maysan drone launches that has named nobody.
Pakistan
Pakistan
Treasury names Waseem Pasha Tajammal of Rawalpindi as the Cavalier group's chairman and places one of the designated incorporations in Islamabad. QatarEnergy separately told Pakistan that liquefied natural gas cargo cancellations would run through November, so Islamabad carries an enforcement question and a supply gap at once.
Turkey
Turkey
Treasury named a Cavalier Dynamics company incorporated in Istanbul among the ten nodes it designated on 29 September, and Ankara has published no response. Turkey imported a record 120,000 barrels a day of Indian diesel in August, cutting Russia's share of its diesel imports to 20 per cent.
India
India
Suraj Yadav, a wiper from Uttar Pradesh, was killed aboard the Cape Dao on 23 September, and 19 of the ship's 20 Indian crew were taken off alive. India's September imports ran at 575,000 barrels a day from Iraq and 566,000 from Saudi Arabia, back to pre-conflict rates.