23JUL

Brent crude recovers from post-ceasefire low

2 min read

19:27UTC

Brent crude traded at $96.39 on Friday morning, recovered from its post-ceasefire low of $94.41 reached after the 15 to 16 per cent single-day drop on 8 April. Markets are pricing the structural stalemate, not resolution.

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ConflictDeveloping

Key takeaway

Markets are pricing the ceasefire as a ceiling on disruption, not a floor under relief.

Brent Crude traded at $96.39 on Friday morning 11 April, recovered from its post-ceasefire low of $94.41 reached after the 15 to 16 per cent single-day drop on 8 April . The recovery reflects market pricing of the structural stalemate rather than confidence in resolution.

The Kpler-projected ceiling of 10 to 15 Hormuz transits per day implies persistent spot-market tightness. Pre-war daily throughput was 120 to 140. Insurance markets will continue pricing transit at war-risk premiums until a credible mine-clearance timeline emerges, which will not happen inside the current diplomatic format. For households in fuel-import-dependent economies, the ceasefire has not yet lowered pump prices, and the physics of the strait suggests it will not do so on any timeline the Islamabad talks can deliver.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

Oil prices bounced back slightly to $96.39 after dipping to a post-ceasefire low of $94.41. The ceasefire caused a brief fall because markets hoped the strait would reopen — but that hope faded quickly as it became clear the physical blockage (uncharted mines, inspection regime, no insurance) would not be resolved by a political announcement. Markets are now pricing in what analysts call a 'structural stalemate': oil prices will stay elevated because the physical problem is not going away. That means petrol, heating bills, and freight costs remain significantly higher than before the war started, regardless of which way the Islamabad talks go.

Source Landscape

This story draws on centre-left-leaning sources from Qatar

Qatar

At $96.39, Brent remains 43% above its $67.41 pre-war baseline. The Goldman Sachs $90 Q2 forecast implies a modest further softening if the ceasefire holds, but the $100+ trigger if Hormuz stays restricted is the operative scenario given the Kpler 10-15 transit ceiling.

Insurance is the transmission mechanism the price level rarely discusses: war-risk premiums for Hormuz transit are currently 0.5-1.5% of vessel value per voyage — roughly $3-9 million per VLCC transit versus near-zero pre-war. Those premiums are borne by cargo owners and passed to refinery buyers, creating a structural floor on refined product prices in Europe and Asia independent of the headline Brent number.

Consensus view: Goldman Sachs (Q2 forecast $90 with $100+ flagged if Hormuz remains restricted) and Kpler's Ana Subasic both price the recovery as market acknowledgement of a structural stalemate, not diplomatic progress. Ali Vaez of the International Crisis Group observed that the US 'handed Iran a weapon of mass disruption' — a permanent Hormuz toll infrastructure the ceasefire has not removed .

Counter-view: Arab Center Washington DC analysts note that the shadow fleet volume that built during pre-war Iranian sanctions has partially decoupled Gulf crude from Brent pricing for Chinese and Indian end-buyers: the Brent price premium overstates the supply disruption for two-thirds of pre-war Hormuz volume by buyer geography.

Key tension: Whether Brent's $94-97 range represents a sustainable war-stalemate equilibrium or an unstable ceiling that collapses if GL-U lapse on 19 April triggers a fresh insurance market withdrawal.

Sources:Al Jazeera

Mentions:Kpler →shadow fleet →Iran →Islamabad →Washington →International Crisis Group →Ali Vaez →Ana Subasic →Goldman Sachs →India →Brent Crude →General License U →Strait of Hormuz →

First Reported In

Update #65 · Iran lost its own minefield

Al Jazeera· 11 Apr 2026

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Causes and effects

This Event

Brent crude recovers from post-ceasefire low

The recovery implies fuel prices stay 40 to 60 per cent above pre-war levels regardless of which diplomatic scenario plays out, locking in an inflation floor across fuel-import-dependent economies.

Led to

Brent holds at $95 as markets wait

Brent at $96.39 (ID:2211) held essentially flat to the $95.20-$96.69 range on 11-12 April, confirming sustained market pricing of the conflict stalemate.

Occurred 12 Apr 2026

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Different Perspectives

India

India buys more Saudi crude than any other country and has 2.5 million nationals working in the kingdom, so a $100 Brent and a live strike on Saudi tankers reach New Delhi through both fuel bills and remittance risk. Neither channel has an alternative route the way Saudi Arabia's own pipeline does.

Qatar

Qatar co-authored the four-mediator ten-day ceasefire proposal alongside Egypt, Pakistan and Oman, centred on resuming Hormuz navigation, while separately pursuing its dated compensation claim against Iran at the UN Security Council filed on 21 July. Doha is mediating and litigating in the same week.

Israel

Israeli intelligence, reported by the Wall Street Journal, assesses Iran moved thousands of centrifuges and part of its roughly 440kg enriched-uranium stock into Pickaxe Mountain after the June 2025 strikes on its three main nuclear sites. Some of the US refuelling aircraft now deploying to the region are bound for Israeli bases and Ramon Airport.

Houthis

Yahya Saree announced the missile and drone strikes on the Encelia and Layla on 22 July as enforcement of the embargo his forces had declared by radio warning alone two days earlier. Six vessels already turned back on the broadcast; the strike shows Houthi forces will use weapons once warnings stop working.

Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabia's state news agency confirmed only a fire on the Encelia's bow, with the crew safe; the Layla strike remains unconfirmed by Riyadh. The kingdom built its Petroline pipeline specifically to bypass Hormuz through the Red Sea, so the tanker fire lands on the route Riyadh had already spent billions escaping.

United States

Washington is weighing both ten-day proposals but wants a longer truce than either offers, and moved F-16 and F-35 jets plus refuelling aircraft into the region while it decides. That deployment, not Trump's Pickaxe Mountain remarks, is the measurable US action, buying options for the day talks fail rather than betting on them.