Ali Vaez of the International Crisis Group characterised six weeks of war in a single sentence: "In the attempt to prevent Iran from developing a weapon of mass destruction, the US handed Iran a weapon of mass disruption" 1. Vaez is one of the few named analysts to have called both the initial Hormuz closure and the toll system's permanence in advance, which gives the framing weight beyond the soundbite. The structural inversion he is describing is concrete: the leverage Washington went to war to remove has instead been codified into Iranian domestic law and projected outwards through a working customs system. The weapon Vaez names is the one Tehran is now asking the US to legally ratify .
7APR
Vaez: a weapon of mass disruption
1 min read
10:19UTC
Ali Vaez of the International Crisis Group summarised six weeks of war in a single sentence: in trying to deny Iran a weapon of mass destruction, the US handed it a weapon of mass disruption.
ConflictDeveloping
Key takeaway
The leverage the US went to war to remove has been codified into Iranian law and projected outwards.
Deep Analysis
In plain English
Ali Vaez of the International Crisis Group , one of the few analysts who correctly called the Hormuz closure and the toll system's permanence , summarised the war in a single sentence: the US went to war to stop Iran building a weapon of mass destruction, and in doing so handed Iran a weapon of mass disruption. The weapon he means is the Hormuz toll system: a working customs authority over the world's most important oil chokepoint, codified into Iranian domestic law, already collecting revenue from French and Japanese ships. The leverage the US meant to remove has instead been legally embedded. That is what Iran is now asking Washington to ratify.
What could happen next?
- Meaning
Vaez's framing captures the structural inversion that has occurred: the war's stated objective , removing Iran's leverage , has instead produced the codification of a new and durable form of leverage that will outlast any ceasefire arrangement not explicitly structured to dismantle it.
First Reported In
Update #61 · Carriers retreat; Iran codifies Hormuz
Forces News· 7 Apr 2026
Read original →Different Perspectives
Gulf shipping and insurance markets
With Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb both hostile at once, war-risk underwriters face their first dual-chokepoint pricing problem; the rerouting hedge that absorbed one closure is gone for Israeli-linked hulls. Any deal that reopens Hormuz without a Houthi stand-down clause delivers only partial shipping relief.
Russia and China
Russia and China met IAEA chief Grossi jointly in Geneva on 5 June to coordinate an advance blocking position against Washington's censure resolution, the first documented instance of proactive pre-session obstruction rather than reactive post-vote dissent. Beijing's move came four days after OFAC designated Shanghai Qianye Energy under Iran energy sanctions.
Saudi Arabia
Saudi Arabia was left out of the emergency $4.01 billion Patriot waiver Qatar received on 2 May as its own PAC-3 stocks ran near-empty from intercepting Iranian salvoes over Aramco facilities. Riyadh is on a standard 18-month FMS queue behind a production line booked through 2030, with no equivalent priority to Qatar's Al Udeid basing role.
Houthis (Ansar Allah)
The Houthis declared a complete ban on Israeli Red Sea navigation on 8 June and struck Jaffa, their first attack on Israeli territory since April, seven days after the Tasnim authorisation to activate other fronts including Bab el-Mandeb. The declaration put both chokepoints under hostile authority simultaneously.
Iran
Iran agreed the 9 June mutual halt after the Mahshahr exchange and coordinated with Russia and China to block Washington's IAEA censure resolution, using the Board as a second front while the bilateral pause held on the military one. Tehran's acceptance of the Lebanon carve-out contradicts the linkage position it stated on 1 June.
Benjamin Netanyahu and the IDF
Israel struck the Karun Petrochemical plant at Mahshahr on 8 June over Trump's explicit objection, then agreed a halt with Iran the following day scoped on Israeli terms with Lebanon carved out. Netanyahu's posture is that the IDF will not accept Iranian missile factories as off-limits regardless of US diplomatic timelines.