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Iran Conflict 2026
12JUN

Day 105: Trump halts strikes, touts deal Iran denies

2 min read
09:18UTC

Trump called off a planned third day of US strikes on Iran and touted a memorandum of understanding he called "a little conceptual", with signing possible this weekend. Iran's foreign ministry called any finalised deal "merely speculation". Brent crude fell about 4 per cent to $89.25 as markets bet the ceasefire holds, while a US strike on the tanker MT Settebello killed three Indian sailors.

ConflictDonald TrumpMohsin Naqvi
Key takeaway

The stand-down is real and checkable; the deal is a claim until the IRGC silently accepts it.

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Donald Trump cancelled a third day of US strikes on 12 June and touted a memorandum he called "a little conceptual". Iran's foreign ministry called any finalised deal "merely speculation".

Sources profile:This story draws on centre-left-leaning sources from United States
United States
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Trump cancelled a planned third day of US strikes on Iran on 12 June and announced a memorandum of understanding he called "a little conceptual", with signing possible that weekend. Iran's foreign ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei told state news agency IRNA that reports of a finalised deal were "merely speculation".

Pakistan's interior minister Mohsin Naqvi was in Tehran for his second visit in under a week, using the same Pakistan-Qatar channel that delivered April's ceasefire after an identical denial cycle. The stand-down is the first deed and word pointing the same direction since the war began. 

Sources:CBS News·PBS NewsHour
1 PBS NewsHour2 CBS News

US forces fired into the engine room of the tanker MT Settebello, killing three Indian crew. India summoned the US Deputy Chief of Mission and lodged a strong protest.

Sources profile:This story draws on mixed-leaning sources from United States
United States
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US forces fired munitions into the engine room of the Palau-flagged tanker MT Settebello on 11 June after it repeatedly failed to comply, killing three Indian sailors: Aditya Sharma, Shivanand Chaurasiya and Patnala Suresh. Of 24 crew, 21 were rescued. India summoned the US Deputy Chief of Mission and lodged a formal protest.

MT Settebello was one of at least three tankers US forces disabled in the Gulf of Oman that week, extending a blockade whose tally had reached 127 redirected and six disabled vessels. India's summons marks the first formal diplomatic grievance from a major non-belligerent directed at US enforcement rather than at Iran. 

Sources:CBS News·gCaptain
1 CBS News2 gCaptain3 CBS News4 Al Jazeera

Trump's team says the framework was approved at the highest level of Iranian leadership. That level is a Supreme Leader unseen since March who answers only by courier.

Sources profile:This story draws on mixed-leaning sources from United States
United States
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Trump's team said the MoU framework was "approved at the highest level of Iranian leadership", meaning Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, who has not appeared publicly since 8 March and can be reached only by handwritten courier with a three-to-five-day lag. The IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps), not Khamenei, holds day-to-day war authority, with no response from the top recorded as of 11 June.

Either a proxy signed on Khamenei's behalf, or the word "approved" describes something less binding than ratification. Thomas Juneau of the Stimson Center and analysts at The Soufan Center assessed the day before that IRGC commanders now exceed the supreme leader's authority over the war. 

Sources:CBS News·Lowdown Today
1 Lowdown Today

Brent crude fell about 4 per cent to $89.25 on 12 June, below $90 for the first time in the conflict window, as traders priced the ceasefire as more likely than not.

Sources profile:This story draws on neutral-leaning sources
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Brent Crude fell roughly 4 per cent to $89.25 on the same day Trump cancelled the third strike day, the first sub-$90 print since the conflict began, as markets priced the stand-down as a probable ceasefire signal. The prior session had settled at $94.71 after CENTCOM's strikes-complete call.

Iran's physical exports remained compressed at 209,000-260,000 barrels a day, down 86 per cent from pre-war levels, so the $5.46 price drop tracked ceasefire probability, not new supply. Markets voted for Trump's deed over Iran's foreign ministry denial. 

Sources:Trading Economics
1 Trading Economics
Closing comments

Direction: pause, not down. Trump's cancelled strike order removes the kinetic pressure that the ceasefire-optimism Brent move priced in. But the structural gap is unchanged: CENTCOM's tanker enforcement kept running on 11 June while the diplomatic track advanced, India is now formally aggrieved, and the IRGC has not publicly commented on the MoU. The mechanism most likely to tip the pause into escalation is an IRGC statement disowning the framework, which would collapse Trump's 'approved at the highest level' claim and reprice Brent above $90. The mechanism most likely to tip it toward de-escalation is a named proxy signer whose IRGC acceptance is confirmed before the weekend window closes.

Different Perspectives
Trump administration / CENTCOM
Trump administration / CENTCOM
Trump cancelled the third strike day and called the MoU 'very strong' and almost ready to sign, while CENTCOM kept tanker enforcement running in the same 24-hour window. The administration is simultaneously withdrawing the military pressure it claims drove the deal and sustaining the enforcement campaign it is trying to trade away.
Iran foreign ministry (Baghaei)
Iran foreign ministry (Baghaei)
Esmail Baghaei told IRNA that reports of a finalised deal were 'merely speculation' and that Iran had 'not yet made a final decision'. The denial is structurally identical to Iranian foreign ministry statements during the April ceasefire talks, which produced a binding text within 48 hours of the same language.
Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)
Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)
The IRGC declared Hormuz closed on 11 June while civilian negotiators were on the same mediation channel, then issued no public comment on the MoU framework. Its silence on the framework, rather than any foreign ministry statement, is the operative approval signal; the corps' unilateral Hormuz closure shows it did not treat the diplomatic track as binding on its operations.
India
India
India summoned the US Deputy Chief of Mission after three Indian sailors were killed aboard MT Settebello, the first formal grievance from a major non-belligerent directed at US enforcement. Indian seafarers supply roughly 12 per cent of the global maritime workforce; their presence on third-flag Gulf tankers is structurally inevitable regardless of bilateral diplomacy.
Pakistan and Qatar mediators
Pakistan and Qatar mediators
Pakistan's Mohsin Naqvi was in Tehran for his second visit in under a week, using the Pakistan-Qatar channel that delivered April's ceasefire after an identical public-denial cycle. The channel carries both civilian and military buy-in from Islamabad, the only configuration Iran's split command cannot dismiss as a partial signal.
Oil markets and Lloyd's of London
Oil markets and Lloyd's of London
Brent fell to $89.25 on ceasefire probability, not new barrels, with traders voting for Trump's deed over Tehran's denial. Lloyd's has not repriced Hormuz war-risk cover because its trigger requires a UN Security Council resolution or government certification, so tanker insurance costs remain elevated regardless of the spot move.