The IRGC declared the Strait of Hormuz closed to all vessels on 11 June and claimed two ships struck, the first formal closure of the war. CENTCOM denied it, saying commercial traffic continues. The declaration vetoes the deal Iran's own government is negotiating, hours after a second day of US strikes. Oil fell anyway.
Iran's corps and government pointed opposite ways on 11 June; neither instrument alone can close the war.
The IRGC Navy posted an order on its Telegram channel on 11 June barring all traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, the first such declaration of the war and a military override of the deal its own government was negotiating.
United Arab EmiratesIran's Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) declared the strait of Hormuz closed to all ships on 11 June, the first such order of the war, claiming two vessels were struck. US Central Command's (CENTCOM) spokesman rejected the claim and confirmed commercial ships were still transiting.
The closure order directly contradicts the peace deal Iran's civilian government was negotiating, under which the strait was due to reopen. The IRGC and the civilian diplomats gave opposite signals on the same day.
CENTCOM struck surveillance, communications and air-defence sites at western Tehran, Sirik and Minab on 10-11 June, widening the war inland from the coast as Trump ordered a second day verbally from the Oval Office.
United StatesQatarUS forces hit surveillance, communications and air-defence sites near Tehran, Sirik and Minab on 10-11 June, the second straight day of strikes on Iran. President Trump ordered them verbally, with no written authorisation from Congress and no notification to the United Nations.
Defence Secretary Hegseth said the strikes were designed to force Iran to sign a deal, not to end the fighting. The target set moved from the coast to the capital in 24 hours.
The IAEA Board of Governors adopted resolution GOV/2026/40 on 10 June by 21 votes to three, demanding Iran disclose its enriched-uranium stockpile and admit inspectors to four facilities; Russia, China and Niger voted against.
The International Atomic Energy Agency's governing board adopted a censure resolution against Iran on 10 June by 21 votes to three, with ten abstentions. Russia, China and Niger voted against. The resolution demands Iran disclose its enriched-uranium stockpile and admit inspectors to four nuclear sites they have been blocked from for nearly a year.
Iran rejected the resolution outright. The ten abstentions weaken any future push to escalate the case to the UN Security Council, where Russia and China hold a veto.
The MoU awaits a decision from Mojtaba Khamenei, unseen in public since early March; analysts at the Stimson and Soufan centres assess IRGC commanders now hold day-to-day authority over the war.
Iran's Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei has not appeared in public since early March, more than three months after being wounded in the February strike that killed his father. A peace deal brokered by Pakistan is waiting for his decision, but no response has come.
Analysts at The Soufan Center assess that the Revolutionary Guard Corps now makes day-to-day war decisions in his absence. The corps closed the strait of Hormuz on 11 June, the same week Pakistan's mediators were pressing for a deal.
Brent eased about 1.7 per cent to $94.71 on 11 June, with WTI near $91.84, pulling back from the prior day's peak even as the IRGC declared the Strait of Hormuz closed.
United Arab EmiratesBrent Crude fell 1.7 per cent to $94.71 on 11 June after the US military said its Iran strikes were complete, even though Iran's Revolutionary Guard declared the strait of Hormuz closed to all ships on the same day. WTI dropped to $91.84.
CENTCOM's 'strikes complete' statement carried more weight with oil traders than the IRGC's closure order. Marine insurance companies kept their war-risk premiums high, meaning the cost of insuring a cargo through the strait did not fall with the headline price.
Upward on both axes. Military axis: the US target set moved from the Hormuz coast to western Tehran in 24 hours, and CSIS analysts estimated the campaign had spent roughly $25 billion by late May 2026 with no signed AUMF constraining scope. The corps axis: the IRGC moved from levying $2 million per VLCC in Hormuz tolls to declaring absolute prohibition on transit, and in doing so negated the MoU's first operative clause on the same day it was being pressed through Pakistan. The specific mechanism that tips this further: if Kpler or Windward record transit volumes below three vessels per day, Brent reverses from $94.71 toward the $96.34 peak and beyond, removing the de-escalation signal that CENTCOM's strikes-complete statement briefly created.
