3JUN

Brent crude recovers from post-ceasefire low

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09:04UTC

Brent crude traded at $96.39 on Friday morning, recovered from its post-ceasefire low of $94.41 reached after the 15 to 16 per cent single-day drop on 8 April. Markets are pricing the structural stalemate, not resolution.

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ConflictDeveloping

Key takeaway

Markets are pricing the ceasefire as a ceiling on disruption, not a floor under relief.

Brent Crude traded at $96.39 on Friday morning 11 April, recovered from its post-ceasefire low of $94.41 reached after the 15 to 16 per cent single-day drop on 8 April . The recovery reflects market pricing of the structural stalemate rather than confidence in resolution.

The Kpler-projected ceiling of 10 to 15 Hormuz transits per day implies persistent spot-market tightness. Pre-war daily throughput was 120 to 140. Insurance markets will continue pricing transit at war-risk premiums until a credible mine-clearance timeline emerges, which will not happen inside the current diplomatic format. For households in fuel-import-dependent economies, the ceasefire has not yet lowered pump prices, and the physics of the strait suggests it will not do so on any timeline the Islamabad talks can deliver.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

Oil prices bounced back slightly to $96.39 after dipping to a post-ceasefire low of $94.41. The ceasefire caused a brief fall because markets hoped the strait would reopen — but that hope faded quickly as it became clear the physical blockage (uncharted mines, inspection regime, no insurance) would not be resolved by a political announcement. Markets are now pricing in what analysts call a 'structural stalemate': oil prices will stay elevated because the physical problem is not going away. That means petrol, heating bills, and freight costs remain significantly higher than before the war started, regardless of which way the Islamabad talks go.

Source Landscape

This story draws on centre-left-leaning sources from Qatar

Qatar

At $96.39, Brent remains 43% above its $67.41 pre-war baseline. The Goldman Sachs $90 Q2 forecast implies a modest further softening if the ceasefire holds, but the $100+ trigger if Hormuz stays restricted is the operative scenario given the Kpler 10-15 transit ceiling.

Insurance is the transmission mechanism the price level rarely discusses: war-risk premiums for Hormuz transit are currently 0.5-1.5% of vessel value per voyage — roughly $3-9 million per VLCC transit versus near-zero pre-war. Those premiums are borne by cargo owners and passed to refinery buyers, creating a structural floor on refined product prices in Europe and Asia independent of the headline Brent number.

Consensus view: Goldman Sachs (Q2 forecast $90 with $100+ flagged if Hormuz remains restricted) and Kpler's Ana Subasic both price the recovery as market acknowledgement of a structural stalemate, not diplomatic progress. Ali Vaez of the International Crisis Group observed that the US 'handed Iran a weapon of mass disruption' — a permanent Hormuz toll infrastructure the ceasefire has not removed .

Counter-view: Arab Center Washington DC analysts note that the shadow fleet volume that built during pre-war Iranian sanctions has partially decoupled Gulf crude from Brent pricing for Chinese and Indian end-buyers: the Brent price premium overstates the supply disruption for two-thirds of pre-war Hormuz volume by buyer geography.

Key tension: Whether Brent's $94-97 range represents a sustainable war-stalemate equilibrium or an unstable ceiling that collapses if GL-U lapse on 19 April triggers a fresh insurance market withdrawal.

Sources:Al Jazeera

Mentions:Kpler →shadow fleet →Iran →Islamabad →Washington →International Crisis Group →Ali Vaez →Ana Subasic →Goldman Sachs →India →Brent Crude →General License U →Strait of Hormuz →

First Reported In

Update #65 · Iran lost its own minefield

Al Jazeera· 11 Apr 2026

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Causes and effects

This Event

Brent crude recovers from post-ceasefire low

The recovery implies fuel prices stay 40 to 60 per cent above pre-war levels regardless of which diplomatic scenario plays out, locking in an inflation floor across fuel-import-dependent economies.

Led to

Brent holds at $95 as markets wait

Brent at $96.39 (ID:2211) held essentially flat to the $95.20-$96.69 range on 11-12 April, confirming sustained market pricing of the conflict stalemate.

Occurred 12 Apr 2026

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Different Perspectives

Oil markets / Lloyd's of London

Brent fell to near $87.33 on 80 per cent deal-probability pricing, but Lloyd's has not de-listed Hormuz from its war-risk register and shipping diversions continue at 139 vessels. Insurance markets are lagging futures: physical risk remains while financial markets have spent the good news before the paper exists.

India

Modi is expected to raise the deaths of three Indian sailors in the 11 June CENTCOM strike on the MT Settebello with Trump at G7 sidelines, the first non-party leader to put the blockade's human cost into a formal bilateral. New Delhi is also a major Iranian oil buyer whose import volumes the sanctions-relief terms will govern.

Israel (Netanyahu)

Netanyahu stated Israel is not party to the deal on 12 June; Defence Minister Katz ruled out the Lebanon withdrawal Iran's draft demands, inserting a third blocker the US-Iran negotiating channel cannot resolve. Israel's position tethers Hormuz reopening to a Lebanon settlement Washington has not brokered.

Pakistan (mediator, Sharif/Naqvi)

Sharif declared a final agreed text on 12 June before either principal confirmed it, running two Tehran visits in under a week without securing a written IRGC or Khamenei response. Islamabad's incentive to claim a diplomatic win outpaces its standing to deliver either capital's signature.

Iran foreign ministry (Araghchi)

Araghchi declared digital signing within days while setting dilute-in-Iran as a non-negotiable red line on the 440.9 kg HEU stockpile, a standing Tehran position he cannot override without authorisation from Khamenei, reachable only by courier. The FM track is sprinting to close before the IRGC reasserts control.

Trump administration / CENTCOM

Vance called the deal still TBD on 12 June while CENTCOM downed Iranian drones over Hormuz for a second consecutive night and the White House register stayed blank. Washington holds the ship-out position on HEU and has not signed an Iran instrument in over 100 days of conflict.