The Israeli Defence Forces declared air supremacy over Iran on Saturday evening, 48 hours after the opening strikes hit Tehran, Isfahan, Qom, Karaj, and Kermanshah (ID:469). The IDF reported more than 2,000 munitions dropped across 24 of Iran's 31 provinces, with the Israeli air force alone accounting for 1,200. The remainder came from US platforms, though the Pentagon has not published a breakdown.
Air supremacy — in NATO doctrinal terms — means conducting air operations without effective opposition from enemy defences. Iran entered this war with Russian-supplied S-300PMU-2 batteries, its indigenous Bavar-373 system, and layered short-range air defences accumulated over two decades. That network has been functionally destroyed in less time than it would take to ship a single replacement battery from Russia.
Twenty-four of thirty-one provinces hit means this is not a repeat of the June 2025 campaign against nuclear infrastructure at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan (ID:76). That operation was surgical — specific facilities, limited duration, no claim of air superiority. This operation is systematic: air defence radars, command nodes, communications relays, military airfields, and IRGC installations across the country. The target set encompasses Iran's capacity to defend its own airspace, not its nuclear programme alone.
Air supremacy, however, is not resolution. Iran continues to fire ballistic missiles from mobile launchers — it struck 27 US military installations across seven countries in the opening hours (ID:472) and has since directed 137 missiles and 209 drones at the UAE alone. The campaign has stripped Iran of the ability to contest its skies. It has not stripped Iran of the ability to inflict casualties on its adversaries and their hosts.
