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Iran Conflict 2026
25MAY

Philippines Cuts Bilateral Hormuz Deal, Bypassing US Posture

3 min read
13:55UTC

The Philippines secured toll-free passage through the Strait of Hormuz on 2 April via a direct call between Foreign Minister Lazaro and Iran's Abbas Araghchi. Manila is the first US ally to negotiate separately with Tehran since the blockade began.

ConflictAssessed
Key takeaway

Manila's bilateral deal is the first formal fracture in US allies' collective stance against Iran's Hormuz toll.

Philippines Foreign Minister Lazaro spoke directly with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi on 2 April, securing toll-free Hormuz passage for Philippine-flagged vessels. Manila becomes the first US treaty ally to negotiate bilaterally with Tehran since the IRGC Larak Island toll system became operational .

The Philippines was among the first countries to declare a national energy emergency as the blockade tightened in late March . With 45 days of fuel reserves and a heavily import-" "dependent energy system, Manila had direct economic pressure " "to act. The bilateral deal solves the Philippines problem. It does not solve the alliance problem.

Iran's parliament voted to codify the Hormuz toll into permanent domestic law , explicitly banning US and Israeli ships. The Philippines deal demonstrates what that law's exemption architecture looks like in practice: Iran selects which states receive access and on what terms. Manila accepted those terms. That is a meaningful concession from a US ally, irrespective of the fuel arithmetic that drove it.

Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan now face identical domestic pressure. Each depends heavily on Gulf energy imports. Each is a US ally. If any follows Manila's precedent, the collective posture Washington has relied on since the blockade began effectively dissolves into a series of bilateral licensing arrangements administered by Tehran.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

The Philippines cut its own side deal with Iran so its ships can pass through the Strait of Hormuz without paying Iran's toll. It is the first US ally to do this. If other countries follow, Iran's ability to use the strait as leverage over the whole world weakens, because each country will just negotiate its own quiet arrangement.

Deep Analysis
Root Causes

The Philippines' decision stems from a structural vulnerability that predates the conflict: ASEAN economies are disproportionately dependent on Gulf oil, with limited domestic production and no strategic petroleum reserve adequate to absorb a sustained Hormuz disruption. Manila had no spare buffer.

The secondary cause is the absence of any US mechanism to compensate allies for bearing Hormuz toll costs. Washington demanded solidarity without offering offsetting support. The Philippines simply acted on its interests when the cost exceeded a political threshold.

Escalation

De-escalatory for the Philippines specifically, escalatory for the collective posture. Iran's incentive to extend the conflict increases as more bilateral exemptions legitimise its toll authority. The deal makes a negotiated end to the Hormuz blockade harder because Iran now has demonstrated that individual deals are achievable.

What could happen next?
  • Precedent

    First bilateral Hormuz toll exemption by a US ally; creates a template for Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and India to follow.

    Immediate · High
  • Consequence

    US leverage over allied shipping policy diminishes with each bilateral deal; the collective pressure architecture fragments from the outside in.

    Short term · High
  • Risk

    Iran's toll evolves from a wartime measure to a permanent licensing framework, effectively privatising passage through an international strait under its unilateral authority.

    Medium term · Medium
  • Opportunity

    The Philippines deal creates a backchannel that could be used for broader indirect diplomacy if Washington chooses to engage it rather than condemn it.

    Short term · Low
First Reported In

Update #57 · Bridge strike kills eight; Army chief fired

Philippines Department of Foreign Affairs· 3 Apr 2026
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Causes and effects
This Event
Philippines Cuts Bilateral Hormuz Deal, Bypassing US Posture
Manila's deal is the first formal crack in the collective posture Washington has maintained since the Hormuz toll began. Each bilateral exception normalises Iran's authority over passage and weakens US leverage over allied shipping.
Different Perspectives
Lloyd's of London
Lloyd's of London
The Joint War Committee left Hormuz war-risk premiums at $10-14 million per voyage on 25 May, declining to move on Brent's 5% fall. The JWC's protocol requires a UN Security Council resolution or bilateral government certification letter before de-listing, and neither has arrived: a verbal understanding does not satisfy the formal condition the reinsurance market's treaty terms require.
Gulf Arab producers
Gulf Arab producers
Saudi Arabia and UAE depend on Hormuz for their own crude exports; Aramco CEO Nasser has warned no oil market recovery arrives until 2027 if the blockade continues past mid-June. Monday's $98.96 Brent settlement shortens nothing for Gulf producers without a signed instrument and a Pentagon mine-clearance timeline that runs up to six months post-ceasefire.
Qatar
Qatar
Qatar holds $12bn of frozen Iranian assets at the centre of the sequencing dispute but cannot release them without explicit US Treasury authorisation, given the original freeze was a US instrument. As the asset-holding state, Qatar's leverage is real but passive: it is the escrow holder, not the decision-maker, and any resolution requires US Treasury sign-off that Trump has withheld.
Pakistan
Pakistan
With both Prime Minister Sharif and army chief Munir simultaneously in Beijing on 25 May, Pakistan has for the first time consolidated its civilian and military mediation tracks under China's roof. Munir's direct Tehran-to-Beijing flight signals that the security and financial threads of the sequencing problem are now being worked in parallel rather than sequentially.
China
China
Beijing hosted Pakistan's principal mediators and Iran's China envoy Ghalibaf simultaneously on 25 May while its banking regulator capped new state-bank lending to five sanctioned refiners. China is simultaneously the most credible third-party underwriter of the $12bn sequencing and the state whose institutions face live OFAC secondary-sanctions exposure if the deadlock persists through GL V's expiry.
United States
United States
Trump posted on 24 May that the blockade holds until a deal is certified and signed, ruling out the informal MOU structure both sides had been building. The 'certified, and signed' condition is the first operational bar Trump has attached in 87 days, but it arrived without an executive instrument, maintaining the gap between posted ultimatum and signed US policy.