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European Oil Markets
8JUN

OFAC signs GL 134C, third Russia bridge

3 min read
10:46UTC

Bradley T. Smith signed General License 134C at 14:05 EDT on Monday 18 May, reinstating Western vessel services on Russian crude loaded by 17 April and reversing the cliff the market had priced two days earlier.

EconomicDeveloping
Key takeaway

GL 134C reopened insurance and classification cover, not a price number, so Urals stabilises rather than rallies.

OFAC Director Bradley T. Smith signed General License 134C at 14:05 EDT on Monday 18 May, authorising in-transit completions on Russian-origin crude loaded on or before 17 April and running through 12:01 a.m. EDT on 17 June 1. This is the third consecutive 30-day bridge, and it reverses the read that Treasury had ruled out a successor after GL 134B lapsed on 16 May . The licence reinstates the full vessel-services umbrella, insurance, crewing, bunkering, piloting, classification and salvage, while paragraph (b)(1) holds the Cuba, Iran and DPRK carve-out in place 2.

The P&L moves straight off that paragraph. The cliff that priced as an exit-or-face-OFAC binary on 16 May is now an insurance-rate normalisation problem for KEBCO and Urals term holders. Cover runs through commercial vessel services, not a price-cap number, so it is the insurance and classification chain that reopens, not the discount math. Urals-Brent is stabilising on the news rather than rallying, because the variable that moved is P&I availability for pre-17-April cargoes.

Set that against the Druzhba southern leg , where MOL and Slovak refiners keep roughly 175-200kbd of exempt pipeline barrels at a feedstock advantage that has touched $40/bbl. Seaborne cargoes carry a freight-and-insurance compliance cost the pipeline crowd never pays, so 134C narrows the gap without closing it. The 17 June expiry now becomes the next binary: a fourth bridge, or the first hard cliff the freight desk has had to price.

Deep Analysis

In plain English

The US government allows companies to temporarily move Russian oil even while Russia is under sanctions ; using a legal permit called a General Licence. When the previous permit (GL 134B) expired in May, there was confusion about whether a new one would be issued. On 18 May, a new one called GL 134C was signed, giving companies until 17 June to complete oil shipments that were already in progress. Think of it like an extension on a moving deadline: the rules are getting stricter over time, but companies get a window to finish what they started. Cuba was specifically excluded ; any shipment that passed through Cuba loses the protection entirely.

Deep Analysis
Root Causes

GL 134C's existence reflects a structural trilemma: the US wants Russian oil revenue curtailed, but abrupt vessel-services withdrawal would simultaneously spike European energy costs (at current Brent above $96), expose allied refineries to supply disruption, and push marginal Russian barrels fully into shadow-fleet channels that Western sanctions cannot reach.

The 30-day rolling structure is a product of this trilemma. Each extension reduces the waiver window (loading cutoffs predate the waiver by 31 days) while maintaining the fiction of a wind-down ; the pre-17 April loading cutoff in GL 134C means the eligible cargo universe is already shrinking without Treasury having to announce a formal termination.

What could happen next?
  • Consequence

    Without a GL 134D by 17 June, term holders of pre-17 April Urals and KEBCO cargoes face the same forced-exit or compliance-risk binary that GL 134B's expiry created on 16 May.

    Short term · Reported
  • Precedent

    The Adani $275m settlement on the same day as GL 134C establishes simultaneous carrot-and-stick enforcement as an explicit OFAC template for commodity sanctions.

    Medium term · Assessed
  • Risk

    Each successive loading cutoff (17 April for GL 134C) shrinks the eligible cargo universe; at some iteration the waiver covers so few barrels that terminal expiry becomes economically painless for Washington but logistically disruptive for NWE refiners.

    Medium term · Assessed
First Reported In

Update #2 · GL 134C reverses the cliff, Brent -$14

OFAC· 26 May 2026
Read original
Causes and effects
This Event
OFAC signs GL 134C, third Russia bridge
The 16 May exit-or-face-OFAC binary becomes an insurance and classification re-rating, not a forced unwind of Russian term positions.
Different Perspectives
Energy Aspects (sell-side trading desk)
Energy Aspects (sell-side trading desk)
The freight market has priced the routing story more honestly than the flat price: Med Aframax bid hard, VLCC flat, distillate crack firming alongside crude, MR TC2 at a 7-month low. The positioning data (NYMEX WTI net short -26,694) confirms the 8 June Brent spike was a short-squeeze, not a conviction rally, with no long base to defend.
UK DESNZ / European refinery regulators
UK DESNZ / European refinery regulators
The UK's decision around 21 May to reopen the Russian-derived distillate import window self-destructs on the same 17 June GL 134C clock, meaning the policy reversal that gave European refiners a short-term margin relief is now contingent on OFAC issuing a successor licence. MR TC2 at $2,400/day shuts the transatlantic product arb, removing the US distillate fallback simultaneously.
Kuwait Petroleum Corporation
Kuwait Petroleum Corporation
KPC's marketing chief told the S&P Global conference on 3 June that full output recovery requires 10-12 weeks after any Hormuz reopening, with Kuwait producing just 490kbd in May against pre-war levels. That timeline provides a hard floor under every ceasefire-rally price fade.
India downstream
India downstream
India had structured an Oman supply deal specifically around the non-Hormuz Mina Al Fahal route; the 5 June drone strike eliminated that corridor and now puts Indian refiners at risk of losing Russian crude cover if GL 134C lapses without a successor on 17 June. Indian refiners are the primary off-take for Russian crude under the current waiver architecture.
China state refiners
China state refiners
Chinese crude imports fell again in the period covered, and Iranian Light flipped to a discount to Brent, sustaining the EFS-compression-is-a-China-demand-hole read from the prior briefing. Beijing has not moved to fill the seaborne gap, leaving the Brent-Dubai EFS as the live indicator of when Chinese buying returns.
US Treasury / State Department
US Treasury / State Department
Secretary of State Rubio broke the monthly GL-134 roll routine on 7 June by stating the US wants to end Russian oil waivers 'as soon as we possibly can', with no GL 134D announced ahead of the 17 June cliff. The simultaneous GL 131F clock on Lukoil-ISAB puts two European crude-supply constraints under the same fortnight of OFAC decision-making.